Kürşad Görgen

The core question isn't just why one "succeeded" and the other "struggled," but what it can reveal about stability, credibility, and the political economy in developing countries.

A Tale of Two Economies It was the worst of Liras, it was the best of Dongs

New Substack post: Vietnam and Turkey both opened their economies in the late 20th century. Vietnam fostered, Turkey stalled. Why?
open.substack.com/pub/themoney...

a graph of daily ridership at the NoMA-Gallaudet University metro station over the last 10 years, showing growth going from 6k to 8k by 2019 and then skyrocketing to 12k by 2025

Local DC post for the day, but it's insane how successful the transit-oriented development around NoMA has been.

The station is now ~50% busier than it was in 2019, despite overall metro ridership still being down. This year, it's busier than Dupont Circle or Columbia Heights

FRB Dallas Texas retail sales outlook, six months ahead

I'm in @ftopinion explaining what I'll be looking for in tomorrow's GDP release. There will be much more real & measurement error noise than usual do to massive trade timing shifts so critical to look at "core GDP", which is the sum of consumer spending + fixed investment. www.ft.com/content/5857...

a map of year-on-year change in nonfarm payrolls for the 50-largest metro areas

New metro-area jobs data is out today, and 41 of the 50-largest metros gained jobs over the last year!

Fastest: Fresno (2.7%), Orlando (2%), Raleigh (1.9%), Charlotte (1.9%), San Antonio (1.7%)

Slowest: Memphis (-1.2%), SF (-.8%), San Jose (-.5%), Denver (-.4%), Phoenix (-.4%)

I'll be starting my PhD in Economics at George Mason University this fall!

Scott Sumner has a post at Econlog about my blogpost on Turkish inflation, its NGDP trend and "greedflation," be sure to check it out!
www.econlib.org/greedflation...

How people think others update their beliefs upon encountering new evidence, from Marina Agranov and Polina Detkova https://www.nber.org/papers/w33261

NIMBY restrictions on housing are well understood; but they also serve to hold back a host of other businesses too

one thing being an internet first economist taught me is that there’s a lot of value add in just telling people descriptive statistics. The number of trade arguments I have defused by just pointing out that China is no longer our #1 source of imports is honestly pretty astounding.

Yoon Suk Yeo rolls “worst autogolpe ever”, asked to leave Korean Peninsula

Tentative takeaways for macro theory, based on Zach's empirics showing wage growth has been uniformly weak in the recent episode:
1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?

Hard to understate the importance of this suggestion by Powell for macroeconomic stability. Thread below on why we don't want to throw out the makeup policy baby with the bath water. (1/n)

"I hope this email finds you well."

Me The email

Couldn't find a better time to sign up here

meanwhile European countries like Italy and Germany had outlawed firing. we better understand "subsidize the worker, not the job". the population is ageing, growth rates are nearing zero, and debt is rising. we ought to squeeze every ounce of productivity and dynamism we have in us 📉📈

when were you when Bluesky servers dies?

i was sat at home eating cocoa butter when watch ring

‘servers is kill’

‘no’

Macroeconomic Insights: Turkey’s Two-Front Fight With Inflation And The Lira - Turnleaf Analytics | Forecasting Macro And Inflation Using Machine Learning Turkey’s central bank has adopted a stringent monetary policy to combat inflation, a stark departure from previous unorthodox strategies. With borrowing costs now at a benchmark high of 50% since Marc...

Stabilization efforts has helped curb some imported inflation but it is still not enough. Another good analysis is here:
turnleafanalytics.com/macroeconomi...

It's the NGDP, Turkish Edition The CBRT's inability to reduce inflation despite high interest rates leads some to argue that it is not working. Some economists argue that inflation is caused by greed. Both are wrong.

Back in early 2024, I argued that current Turkish inflation is almost completely caused by CBRT. It's still relevant, as CBRT continues its recklessly expansionary monetary policy at full speed.
themoneymischief.substack.com/p/its-the-ng...