No Escalators

Fun last week of the season where teams 1-3 are locked as 1 seeds. Teams 4-5 are in a tight race for the last 1 seed, and teams 6-18 are fiercely competing to be 6 seeds.

Would you like to hear the story of the only time I slept until 2 pm as an adult spoiler alert: you might recognize the beginning

5 to 50 or 10 to 100?

Also AMA please

“Cooley looks like he was just told it is 10:31 at McDonalds and they’re out of sausage briskets. Which, I know that feeling.”

Absolutely no one is operating on John Fanta’s level. 👑👑👑

Congratulations to the Johnnies

Here is it with FT Rate. Very stark there. But Houston gets called for a ton? . bsky.app/profile/noes...

Here’s FT Attempt Rate For/Against. Same thing.

Wild: UConn does not get to the line (282nd in FTA/FGA per KenPom) and sends opponents there a lot (291st).

BUT look at clutch time (under 5 min in two possession or less game, or OT). UConn draws 50+ fouls per 100 possessions, and commits ~23.

Dan Hurley wins close games.

Engagement bait for nerds

Are Duke just opposing free throw luck merchants?

Best illustration I’ve seen yet for flaw of comparing KenPom AdjEM ratings across years (KP measures each team against average D1 team in the year being measured)

The committee should match up Iowa State and Miami (OH) in the first round.

Impressive work

3/1 WAB Update:

UConn has healthy lead over fifth. Using Torvik WAB projections, if UConn wins out they’ll be at 9.34. If Florida does they’ll be at 8.26. And UConn beat UF.

UConn likely to be 4th 1 or 1st 2 seed and share a region with one of: Houston, Florida, Mich or Duke.

This is Gonzaga’s worst nightmare: playing against a team that is good

After defeating Seton Hall to move to 17-2, KenPom gives UConn an 83% chance of matching the all-time Big East wins record (shared with 2024 UConn).

UConn is the first to 69 points this afternoon. In the Dan Hurley era, UConn is 143-1 (99.31%) when scoring 69 points before their opponent.

Huskies lead Seton Hall 70-67. Four seconds left.

Better for UConn if Duke isn’t overall No. 1 seed

UConn rooting interest today in order of importance:

UConn over Seton Hall
Villanova over St. John’s
Providence over Creighton
Virginia over Duke

***gap***

Texas Tech over Iowa State
Kansas over Arizona
Colorado over Houston (lol)

Miami Ohio is going to be a 34-0 12 seed and it’ll be such a beautiful story until they get rinsed by 23 points against Arkansas.

Yes. And obviously Michigan is doing something to impact opponent shooting from deep (a lot of something!) but if/when they fall, I bet I can guess what the opponent 3p% will look like! bsky.app/profile/noes...

bsky.app/profile/noes...

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

After defeating St. John’s to move to 16-2, KenPom gives UConn a 74.7% chance of matching the all-time Big East wins record (shared with 2024 UConn).

You: “Here are some technical issues with Matt Painter’s roster building and schemes that give them trouble in big games.”
Me [/grabbing microphone]: “THEY HAVE THE SOUL OF A LOSER”

I guess her dalmatian fur coat is at the cleaners

Wins Above Bubble is huge for seeding and UConn has opened a significant lead in the chase for the last 1 seed.

If every team won out, here’s where they’d end up using @barttorvik.bsky.social WAB projections:

UConn - 9.51
Purdue - 9.26
Iowa State - 8.3
Kansas - 8.11
Florida - 8.05
Houston - 7.6

UConn is the first to 69 points this evening and will win this game. With the result, in the Dan Hurley era, UConn is 143-1 (99.31%) when scoring 69 points before their opponent.

Huskies are detonating St. John’s, 69–36.

And also not a bad thing:

They are always good (even at offense despite a perception they are all D)
They seem like they would be physically painful to play against
I do not enjoy watching them

This is a purely vibes based assessment