Umami

Team Read the Docs keeps winning

STIR traders are a dorky bunch but I wouldn't call them that

You should read this piece. Adam is right: the core theory behind the anti-ICE mobilization here in Minneapolis isn’t really a political ideology, but that neighbors are neighbors and must be protected.

Comics retailing legend Greg Ketter standing up to ICE in Minneapolis. Yes, that's tear gas. He's 70 years old.

Double take

Prediction mkt success is easier to eval because the events are discrete vs perpetually traded instruments in normal "mkt" contexts where the wiggles bake in a lot more assumptions about the future and more participants are expressing more diverse views. Prob more likely "wrong" in latter setup

Minimum 20x leverage requirements and bet sizing solves!

If victory lappers are saying prices shouldn't have moved, that's obviously wrong. If they're saying they overshot, that's fair. "Market discipline" w/r/t prediction mkts is just a fetish though.

The problem with prediction markets is that there aren't enough agency problems?

ACA biz was loss making last year for a lot of the market and insurers hiked prices by 20%+ to account for anticipated adverse selection driven by subsidy expiration for 26. Street has these as +LSD margin businesses in 26 under new/higher pricing but still unknowable until 2H26

Many such cases

$TSCO immediately started beating comps. Coincidence?

Highest return on R&D spend for any company in consumer bar none

This remains a razor I use when evaluating the administration's approach to healthcare policy. There are a few direct ways it can put money directly in his pocket, and as such, it should remain a lower priority. However, the "punish enemies" push still drives negative revenue dynamics

Being 'too-online' is now a life disadvantage

Endless Summer afternoon

My expectations were low, but damn

Heyyyyyy comics folks!

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It also implies that you can at least partially attribute what hacky media ppl say to their patrons. This is an assumption I have been reluctant to make in the past (again, potentially naive)

I will say the most surprising learning in the last 24hrs is how tight the integration was/is between those with their hands on the levers of power and those who I previously thought were just media people. Maybe I'm naive, but I was surprised by that.

It's likely it's just the same video that was posted on Twitter yesterday.

Also, given recent trends in federal law enforcement, why wasn't the move to immediately arrest all 3,000 people and sort it out in post?

Begin with the end in mind

Can't tell if you think that's too high or too low

! Want

Absolute series generally going crazy

many such cases

/7 This administration, from top to bottom, is ABSOLUTELY capable of getting Maxwell to clear Trump and implicate Trump’s political enemies in exchange for some commutation or pardon of her sentence. If you say otherwise you’re a liar or a fool.

Real American

Need a vacation

He's gonna pardon Ghislaine and she's gonna say under oath Michelle Obama did January 6th.

Hackman collection on Criterion Channel had this recently - great flick