Ewan Hoyle

Adam Fleming: “You’re living in a place where you can face 2 years in prison & a fine of £40k if the authorities don’t like what you post on social media”

Isabel Oakeshott: “I have no issue with the authorities here…”

AF: “And if Starmer introduced that law?”

#PoliticsLive

bloody HELL

Family voting sounds a lot like "talking to your partner before you go into separate polling booths".

You're allowed to go and vote together, right?

Right?

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Iran: “Spain is against this disaster. Because we understand that governments are here to improve people's lives, to provide solutions to problems, not to make people's lives worse.

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The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

They won't be able to hold back the tide.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

And it's such a godawful film 🙄

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

Wow, now that's an opening sentence! 😳

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

To AV, or not to AV, that is the question. Labour can take arms against a sea of roubles (Reform UK), or by opposing AV, end their own electoral prospects. Ay, where's the rub?

Nope. Reform have a terrible tactical voting profile, so they'd struggle to get past the two largest parties, the Greens and Lib Dems.

AV is essentially a simulation of perfect tactical voting

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Thank you email for joining the Green Party

Just joined UK’s Green Party for a few reasons. Starmer himself suggested ppl like me leave the Labour Party when he assumed leadership. Request granted. But the Greens’ recent success & polling (and more importantly their policy goals!) show them to be robust & viable.
join.greenparty.org.uk

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

Welcome Rob!!

Good day to take the leap!

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Which is why we need a ranked preference voting system.

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

It's here lads!!

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

"Let's Go!" indeed open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

If you look at the tactical voting data, this model is absolute bollocks.

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Thank you for your service

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

Their polling will only grow from here.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

Labour are toast.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

Let's GO!!

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

A quite write-up of the evidence this is a lead that will only grow over Labour. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Greens are the Tactical Progressive Vote A 5-point lead over Labour will only get bigger when tactical voting intention follows.

tldr: Labour are so f***ed... and the Greens will be over 30% by May. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The Green win in Gorton and Denton might be the end of Labour. May's British Election Study, and the latest tactical voting poll, show Labour on the brink of catastrophe.

The Greens Party are the progressive tactical vote

This 5-point lead is without all Green supporters saying they'll vote Green, and without them being the recipient of the bulk of tactical votes from Lib Dems and Labour. This is a huge moment.

ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/the-green-...

The Green win in Gorton and Denton might be the end of Labour. May's British Election Study, and the latest tactical voting poll, show Labour on the brink of catastrophe.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

The two leading progressive parties should repel each other in the polls under our electoral system. Now Labour has let the Greens overtake them (and by 5 points), tactical considerations should mean they should just spread apart now.

There's always been the Green support there. They've just been tactically indicating voting intention for other parties. Now they don't have to do that, their tactical voters will return, and they will bring tactical voters from others. They'll overtake Reform soon, and Labour will be last.

The Green win in Gorton and Denton might be the end of Labour. May's British Election Study, and the latest tactical voting poll, show Labour on the brink of catastrophe.

Labour's challenge now is holding on to support in double figures. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

I didn't have any money when I sent @garyseconomics.bsky.social this tip-off about the odds of the Greens being the largest party after the next election. I should have been bolder and lobbied friends and family

Just as he saw what was wrong with the markets, I saw what was wrong with the polls. 😔

They didn't have PR in Gorton and Denton, Lorraine. 😑