Mujtaba Rahman

Guerre en Iran: la France va rehausser sa «posture» militaire dans le Golfe Le chef de l’État a suggéré dimanche une possible augmentation des moyens militaires français déployés dans la région, à l’ouverture d’un conseil de défense à l’Élysée, le deuxième en deux jours.

🇫🇷 expected to move two warships to the Gulf, joining one already there, in the next couple of days. This follows the joint Fr, UK & German statement last night warning of "defensive action" to protect European bases and allies from Iranian retaliation

www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...

U.S. ambassador to France tries to defuse spat after being barred from government Ambassador Charles Kushner called the French foreign minister after failing to show up to a summons following Trump administration tweets about the beating death of a far-right activist in France.

France 1 - US 0

share.google/rgGKwBd2INXO...

From the US Mission to NATO

Irony is dead

This is an excellent analysis by Sophie of a great European conundrum. French leaders, from De Gaulle, through Chirac to Macron, have been prescient about the need for greater European independence from the US. They are getting grudging, belated credit from other Europeans. BUT…1/

Macron has been proved right on European autonomy. Unfortunately, his failure to resolve France’s domestic problems has weakened his credibility, both in Europe and at home

ENDS

France faces the prospect of Germany becoming by far the biggest military power in democratic Europe while Paris pushes, unsuccessfully, for the EU to take on massive debt to fund a common defence. 9/

Hence, as Sophie points out, France faces a slow humiliation, just as Macron’s calls for European strategic autonomy are being vindicated. France is building up its defence spending but not at the rate Donald Trump has demanded and Nato has agreed to. 8/

9y ago Macron promised a peaceful revolution which would make the French state more efficient and the economy more competitive. He has made some progress on the economy but little on the state. The deficit (to be reduced to 5% of GDP this year) will be one of the highest in EU 7/

It is NOT certain that the Far Right will win next year but there is no sign yet of any powerful candidate emerging among the pro-EU parties of moderate Left, Centre and Centre-right. 6/

All the same, just when his prescient, pro-European ideas are being grudgingly recognised in Europe, Macron has failed to create a solid base for them in France. 5/

Like most people, the French vote on domestic rather than foreign or European issues. They have a habit of detesting all their leaders. Macron’s unpopularity is partly deserved and partly wilful and exaggerated. 4/

Even worse, the polls give the Far Right Rassemblement Nationalism an 18 or 19 point lead before the presidential election next April-May – whether or not Marine Le Pen runs for a fourth time. If the anti-EU RN wins, Macron’s hopes of a more powerful Europe will be dead. 3/

I would also ask another question. Why is Macron given so little credit for his prescience in France? This might be the moment when his persistent calls for “European strategic autonomy” since 2017 boosted his popularity at home. His approval rating is stuck in the low 20’s. 2/

This is an excellent analysis by Sophie of a great European conundrum. French leaders, from De Gaulle, through Chirac to Macron, have been prescient about the need for greater European independence from the US. They are getting grudging, belated credit from other Europeans. BUT…1/

Remember when Rubio criticised Hungary's democratic backsliding?

What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding

This is what electoral interference in European elections looks like - per the USG NSS strategy last year

By their friends shall you know them

After his oily flattery and rude criticism of the Europeans en masse at the MSC, Rubio has chosen to make bilateral visits to the two most pro-Putin, anti-Brussels and Trump-loving leaders in the EU, Fico in Slovakia and Orban in Hungary

Nothing to see here. Just the US State Department mimicking the talking points of Germany's far right AfD

This is partly to unite left and see off Greens, Lib Dems. Starmer wants to join SAFE €150bn defence program despite previous dispute over £££ & French doubts. I suspect he will now find a way to make this happen

ENDS

There was also also a domestic dimension to his speech: after McSweeney's departure the soft left led by Rayner, Miliband & Burnham are pushing PM to be one of their own & to some extent he needs to do this to stay in power. One of soft left key demands is a more pro-EU stance 3/

This reflects the PMs long held view that Europe incl the UK duplicate on defence and must have more co-op & interopability to meet security challenge and make £££ add up 2/

Starmer at MSC was his version of Carney at Davos - without the anti-Trump message. Starmer thinks the EU needs to step up a gear or more on defence - whatever the US decides 1/

No senior EU officials I've spoken to have a positive assessment of Rubio's speech. Not one

In Rubio's worldview and imagination, the transatlantic alliance can only prosper if the Europeans pursue the same illiberal “civilisational” project as the Trump Administration

And remember - he is the best they have

That's how bad this is

Rubio's speech at the MSC was not (and should not be) in the least bit reassuring for Europe, the fundamental substance not different to Vance last year

This US Admin and Europe no longer share the same values

This will continue to throw up risks in Ukraine, Greenland, big tech etc

Rubio also snubbed France. He listed a series of European cultural icons but no French ones. He mentioned several nations which fought wars alongside the US – but omitted France. One oversight might be a mistake; two was surely an insult ENDS

In the meantime, Secretary of State @SecRubio speech has not gone down well in Paris (or many other EU capitals, frankly). His softer tone, while welcome, scarcely disguised the same bullying approach to Europe as Trump and Vance 8/

Alex is one of the best communicators in the EU. A consistent theme of his interventions is to change the narrative - on Russia, on European competitiveness

He's right

Alex Stubb on EU competitiveness - excellent

"Economists look at crude GDP... but I look at our Gini coefficients.. & whether it's justice, least corrupt, open, welfare, environment, open media, gender equality.. I don't buy the argument we're doing bad. I'm actually bloody happy"

MSC '26

Rubio also snubbed France. He listed a series of European cultural icons but no French ones. He mentioned several nations which fought wars alongside the US – but omitted France. One oversight might be a mistake; two was surely an insult ENDS