Mujtaba Rahman

Macron surprised his audience yesterday by adding Belgium, DK, Greece and Sweden and “possibly others”to this list and suggesting that some or all might be involved in conventional exercises related to the French deterrent by the end of this year. ENDS

It was known that Germany, Sweden and Poland were interested in talking to France about the French deterrent – as a second insurance policy rather than a replacement (at this stage) for the US nuclear guarantee. 9/

Despite his remarks on French “final control” of the deterrent & despite assertions of a “European dimension” in Fr nuclear doctrine going back to the 1970s, the PR speech will be controversial. He has already been accused by the Far Right of “giving away the deterrent to Bxl” 8/

The speech had been much flagged in advance and is regarded in the Elysée Palace as one of Macron’s final big contributions to European and world politics before he leaves office in 14 months’ time. 7/

This would involve, he said. participation by allies in the conventional “support infrastructure” for the French deterrent. It might also mean basing nuclear-capable Fr aircraft in other Eur countries to “complicate the calculations for our enemies”. 6/

Macron made it clear that there was no question of “sharing” France’s deterrent with other European countries. Decisions on the use of nukes would remain purely French. But he said it was time to clarify Fr’s long-standing French assertion its “Force de frappe” had a “European dimension”. 5/

President Macron, standing in front of the “Temeraire”, a French nuclear attack sub about to go out on extended patrol, also announced that Britain and the UK were studying possible joint development of long-range ballistic missiles. 4/

In a much flagged speech at France’s nuclear submarine base at Ile Longue near Brest, Macron also announced that France intended to increase its stock of nuclear warheads, now just under 300. He refused to give a figure for the increase. 3/

He said at least 8 European countries are considering exercises with FR on nuclear “support infrastructure” in the near future. He listed six  of them: German, Poland, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. The French and British are already engaged in similar cooperation. 2/

🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷 A bombshell? Not quite but President Macron went further than expected this afternoon in announcing progress towards a strengthened “European dimension” for France’s nuclear deterrent. 1/

Guerre en Iran: la France va rehausser sa «posture» militaire dans le Golfe Le chef de l’État a suggéré dimanche une possible augmentation des moyens militaires français déployés dans la région, à l’ouverture d’un conseil de défense à l’Élysée, le deuxième en deux jours.

🇫🇷 expected to move two warships to the Gulf, joining one already there, in the next couple of days. This follows the joint Fr, UK & German statement last night warning of "defensive action" to protect European bases and allies from Iranian retaliation

www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...

U.S. ambassador to France tries to defuse spat after being barred from government Ambassador Charles Kushner called the French foreign minister after failing to show up to a summons following Trump administration tweets about the beating death of a far-right activist in France.

France 1 - US 0

share.google/rgGKwBd2INXO...

From the US Mission to NATO

Irony is dead

This is an excellent analysis by Sophie of a great European conundrum. French leaders, from De Gaulle, through Chirac to Macron, have been prescient about the need for greater European independence from the US. They are getting grudging, belated credit from other Europeans. BUT…1/

Macron has been proved right on European autonomy. Unfortunately, his failure to resolve France’s domestic problems has weakened his credibility, both in Europe and at home

ENDS

France faces the prospect of Germany becoming by far the biggest military power in democratic Europe while Paris pushes, unsuccessfully, for the EU to take on massive debt to fund a common defence. 9/

Hence, as Sophie points out, France faces a slow humiliation, just as Macron’s calls for European strategic autonomy are being vindicated. France is building up its defence spending but not at the rate Donald Trump has demanded and Nato has agreed to. 8/

9y ago Macron promised a peaceful revolution which would make the French state more efficient and the economy more competitive. He has made some progress on the economy but little on the state. The deficit (to be reduced to 5% of GDP this year) will be one of the highest in EU 7/

It is NOT certain that the Far Right will win next year but there is no sign yet of any powerful candidate emerging among the pro-EU parties of moderate Left, Centre and Centre-right. 6/

All the same, just when his prescient, pro-European ideas are being grudgingly recognised in Europe, Macron has failed to create a solid base for them in France. 5/

Like most people, the French vote on domestic rather than foreign or European issues. They have a habit of detesting all their leaders. Macron’s unpopularity is partly deserved and partly wilful and exaggerated. 4/

Even worse, the polls give the Far Right Rassemblement Nationalism an 18 or 19 point lead before the presidential election next April-May – whether or not Marine Le Pen runs for a fourth time. If the anti-EU RN wins, Macron’s hopes of a more powerful Europe will be dead. 3/

I would also ask another question. Why is Macron given so little credit for his prescience in France? This might be the moment when his persistent calls for “European strategic autonomy” since 2017 boosted his popularity at home. His approval rating is stuck in the low 20’s. 2/

This is an excellent analysis by Sophie of a great European conundrum. French leaders, from De Gaulle, through Chirac to Macron, have been prescient about the need for greater European independence from the US. They are getting grudging, belated credit from other Europeans. BUT…1/

Remember when Rubio criticised Hungary's democratic backsliding?

What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding

This is what electoral interference in European elections looks like - per the USG NSS strategy last year

By their friends shall you know them

After his oily flattery and rude criticism of the Europeans en masse at the MSC, Rubio has chosen to make bilateral visits to the two most pro-Putin, anti-Brussels and Trump-loving leaders in the EU, Fico in Slovakia and Orban in Hungary

Nothing to see here. Just the US State Department mimicking the talking points of Germany's far right AfD

This is partly to unite left and see off Greens, Lib Dems. Starmer wants to join SAFE €150bn defence program despite previous dispute over £££ & French doubts. I suspect he will now find a way to make this happen

ENDS

There was also also a domestic dimension to his speech: after McSweeney's departure the soft left led by Rayner, Miliband & Burnham are pushing PM to be one of their own & to some extent he needs to do this to stay in power. One of soft left key demands is a more pro-EU stance 3/