Mujtaba Rahman

If you can understand French it's worth listening to Macron's speech this evening to the crew of the Charles de Gaulle off Cyprus

Not for anything special that he announces but for the measured, intelligent tone

Then imagine what Trump or Hegseth might have said

Trump's Iran intervention is as big a strategic failure as Putin's invasion of Ukraine

The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest oil supply shock in history

Brent is above $100 & will stay there until convoys or deescalation restore traffic, probs weeks away

🇫🇷‼️ France is assembling an “unprecedented” fleet of eight frigates, an aircraft carrier and two helicopter carriers in the eastern Med and “off the straits of Hormuz”, President Emmanuel Macron said today. 1/

So France is saying the G7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles

Makes sense. If I were a European politico I'd want to add a little more market pressure on Trump to change tack in Iran before addressing oil prices

The EU understands the value of market pressure..

So France is saying the G7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles

Makes sense. If I were a European politico I'd want to add a little more market pressure on Trump to change tack in Iran before addressing oil prices

The EU understands the value of market pressure..

In another part of his comments, Macron said that French ships might escort vessels through Ormuz “when the hottest phase of the conflict is over”.  This implies no effort to force the straits but an attempt to reassure shipping companies once they are declared open ENDS

He referred to efforts to keep the Red Sea open to navigation but did not specify an attempt to break the Iranian blockage of Hormuz. He said French ships would be stationed “off Hormuz”. French officials earlier played down any suggestion of an attempt to force open the straits. 6/

“France’s aim is to contribute to de-escalation (of the Gulf war), the security of our citizens, the security of our partners and free navigation and maritime safety,” Macron said. 5/

“The French presence in the eastern Mediterranea, the Red Sea and off the straits of Ormuz will consist of eigtt frigates, two helicopter ships and our airraftcarrier,” he said. “This mobilisation of our navy is unprecedented”. 4/

President Macron was talking in Cyprus after talks with the Cypriot and Greek Prime Minsters. Later today, he will go aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle which has just arrived off the Cypriot coast. 3/

He said the aim of the fleet was “defensive” and to keep navigation open in the Red Sea. He did not specify whether French ships might try lift the “blockade” of the straits of Hormuz – but this is thought to be unlikely. 2/

🇫🇷‼️ France is assembling an “unprecedented” fleet of eight frigates, an aircraft carrier and two helicopter carriers in the eastern Med and “off the straits of Hormuz”, President Emmanuel Macron said today. 1/

America chose this war — and must now choose how to end it However this conflict concludes, the US and Iran’s new leaders will have to revisit the same issues that sparked hostilities

www.ft.com/content/0321...

Richard Haas excellent in today's FT

There is almost no difference between the UK and French positions on Iran. But Macron's approach has been broadly accepted by French media and the opposition - except for the extreme left. The parallel with the UK is interesting.

You couldn't make this up

Putin is supporting Iran with intelligence in the war

Yet Trump is considering unsanctioning more Russian oil according to Bessent

A clueless US Administration, in way over its head

You couldn't make this up

Putin is supporting Iran with intelligence in the war

Yet Trump is considering unsanctioning more Russian oil according to Bessent

A clueless US Administration, in way over its head

This allows the EU to be non-aligned with the US but anti the Iranian regime. Spain has obviously carved out a stronger position. But Madrid has a) no formal allies in the Gulf and b) cares little about Ukraine, so can risk angering Trump

2/2

People keep asking me whether the EU is warming to the US and Israel's war on Iran.

The answer is no

The EU pattern has been exactly the same as the UK's: Against the original US and Israel attacks (seen as illegal). But ready to defend allies in the Gulf when attacked by Iran

Pentagon eyes Ukrainian interceptor drones to counter Iran Kyiv has pioneered cheap and mass-produced machines to battle Russian versions of the Shahed attack drone

Vv interesting development

Ukraine not only important for European security. But US security too

www.ft.com/content/d077...

Macron said the French military build-up was defensive and intended to help protect French citizens, troops and allies in the region from Iranian attack. He said the first French frigate, the “Languedoc”, would arrive off the Cypriot coast tonight.

ENDS

In a TV address - his first public comments on the war in the middle east -  Macron said the Iranian regime bore prime responsibility for the conflict but criticised the US and Israel for resorting to military action “outside international law -something we can’t accept.” 2/

🇫🇷‼️ France has sent a frigate to protect Cyprus, an EU ally, from Iranian missiles or drones, Macron announced tonight. He also said he had ordered the giant aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its frigate escorts to cut short a Baltic visit and sail to the eastern Med. 1/

Macron surprised his audience yesterday by adding Belgium, DK, Greece and Sweden and “possibly others”to this list and suggesting that some or all might be involved in conventional exercises related to the French deterrent by the end of this year. ENDS

It was known that Germany, Sweden and Poland were interested in talking to France about the French deterrent – as a second insurance policy rather than a replacement (at this stage) for the US nuclear guarantee. 9/

Despite his remarks on French “final control” of the deterrent & despite assertions of a “European dimension” in Fr nuclear doctrine going back to the 1970s, the PR speech will be controversial. He has already been accused by the Far Right of “giving away the deterrent to Bxl” 8/

The speech had been much flagged in advance and is regarded in the Elysée Palace as one of Macron’s final big contributions to European and world politics before he leaves office in 14 months’ time. 7/

This would involve, he said. participation by allies in the conventional “support infrastructure” for the French deterrent. It might also mean basing nuclear-capable Fr aircraft in other Eur countries to “complicate the calculations for our enemies”. 6/

Macron made it clear that there was no question of “sharing” France’s deterrent with other European countries. Decisions on the use of nukes would remain purely French. But he said it was time to clarify Fr’s long-standing French assertion its “Force de frappe” had a “European dimension”. 5/

President Macron, standing in front of the “Temeraire”, a French nuclear attack sub about to go out on extended patrol, also announced that Britain and the UK were studying possible joint development of long-range ballistic missiles. 4/