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Mujtaba Rahman

@mijrahman.bsky.social

Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth https://www.eurasiagroup.net

35,738 Followers  |  270 Following  |  1,450 Posts  |  Joined: 03.10.2023  |  1.7206

Latest posts by mijrahman.bsky.social on Bluesky

โ€œOn the frozen assets, security gurantees and EU membership, nothing can be finalised without the Europeansโ€ฆthis is not a complete peace plan, That needs Ukraine at the table, Russia at the table and the Europeans at the table.โ€ ENDS

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 40    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

โ€œThere is not, properly speaking, a plan on the future of (occupied) territiories,โ€ Macron said. โ€œIt cannot be finalised except by President Zelensky.โ€ 7/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 31    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

On the European side, these included the Russian assets frozen in Belgium, post-settlement security guarantees and future Ukrainian membership of the EU 6/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 26    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Throughout yesterdayโ€™s press conference, Macron went out of his way to praise the US and President Donald Trump for their efforts but he also implied that Washington had overstepped the mark. There were several key issues, he said, that could not be agreed by Moscow and Washington alone. 5/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 26    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Lurking behind these conciliatory and cautiously optimistic words, there is a great deal of anger. The French, like other Europeans, were disgusted, by the original 28-point US and Russian peace plan. They are not, however, ready to say so publicly. 4/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 34    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Both presidents suggested that the ball was now in Moscowโ€™s court. Both issued pointed reminders that Russia had rejected or ignored a series of proposals - at least four, Macron said โ€“ for ceasefires or balanced peace talks since February. 3/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 27    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

But the word โ€œmediationโ€ (which Macron used several times, carefully praising US efforts) is a loaded one . It implies that the Europeans no longer regard the US as an ally but expect Washington to be at least balanced in its efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia confict. 2/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 30    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It would be wise to read between the lines of the Macron-Zekensky press conference in Paris today. Both presidents praised the โ€œmediationโ€ efforts of the US. Both men said hopes of a a โ€œdurableโ€ and equable peace now rested on Russia. 1/

01.12.2025 16:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 49    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
Preview
UK to announce plans to emulate stringent Danish immigration system Shabana Mahmoodโ€™s proposals draw scorn from some Labour MPs, while others want government to go further

So let me get this right. We had to leave the EU to control immigration, and we are going to control immigration by emulating the stringent immigration system of Denmark, which is a proud and happy member of the EU.

08.11.2025 14:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 157    ๐Ÿ” 57    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 6
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"Let's not forget, when we remember the service and the sacrifice with this poppy, that the people who bled and died for our democracy and our freedom, weren't just my grandfather who looked like me & worshipped the same God, but people across Empire & Commonwealth, who were Muslim, Sikh & Hindu'

26.10.2025 10:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1119    ๐Ÿ” 317    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 41    ๐Ÿ“Œ 53
Preview
Starmer needs to get serious about governing โ€” and quick The prime minister has to change or his party will seek a change of its own

Really good piece. Excellent by @stephenkb.bsky.social

www.ft.com/content/94e0...

25.10.2025 08:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 22    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Preview
Greenland could become biggest car crash in transatlantic relations The Danes are right: If the U.S. president presses ahead in the autonomous territory, others can and will follow elsewhere.

Could Greenland become the next flashpoint in transatlantic relations? My piece for @politico.eu

www.politico.eu/article/gree...

21.10.2025 06:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 71    ๐Ÿ” 35    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Excellent piece

20.10.2025 06:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 26    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Trump told Zelenskyy he was losing the war, warning: โ€œIf [Putin] wants it, he will destroy youโ€

The US president threw Ukraineโ€™s battlefield maps to one side & said he was โ€œsickโ€ of seeing the frontline again & again

Scoop w @christopherjm.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social & @a-mackinnon.bsky.social

19.10.2025 19:11 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 231    ๐Ÿ” 103    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 42    ๐Ÿ“Œ 14

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Macron told his cabinet that censure motions are dissolution motions. In other words, there will be elections if Lecornu is toppled. Far right & hard left have already tabled censure votes on Thurs. Socialists say they will table their own if Lecornu does not give way today when he speaks at 3pm

14.10.2025 11:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 21    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท

Macron has reappointed Lecornu

Incredible

(Not in a good sense)

10.10.2025 20:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 63    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4

On ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท: I think tonight we are looking at an extension of the Lecornu process (not a deal or a dissolution). If there was to be a decision tonight, Macron would speak not Lecornu. He will say, I predict cautiously, that he is making progress & has been given more time by Macron

08.10.2025 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 14    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Lecornu has resigned. What will Macron do next? Appoint a technocrat? Call an early election? France's deep political ans budgetary crisis continues. What a week to be in Paris..

06.10.2025 07:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 44    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Preview
European strategic autonomy is in German hands As Berlin inevitably becomes the EU's dominant military power, its billions could either build or blur Macron's vision of European defense.

An age-old French nightmare โ€” that of growing German military might โ€” is resurfacing in a new form.

As Berlin inevitably becomes the EUโ€™s dominant military power, our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social explains how strategic autonomy is now in Germanyโ€™s hands:

@politico.eu

05.10.2025 14:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 18    ๐Ÿ” 6    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

โ€ผ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly โ‚ฌ200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

17.09.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 433    ๐Ÿ” 101    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

โ€ผ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly โ‚ฌ200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

17.09.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 433    ๐Ÿ” 101    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
Letter from Ed Davey to Keir Starmer condemning Elon Musk for inciting violence and urging unity to defend democracy.

Letter from Ed Davey to Keir Starmer condemning Elon Musk for inciting violence and urging unity to defend democracy.

I've written to Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, urging them to join me in condemning Elon Musk's dangerous remarks inciting violence yesterday.

As leaders, we must stand together and make clear Musk will face serious consequences for these actions.

14.09.2025 18:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6998    ๐Ÿ” 1886    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 346    ๐Ÿ“Œ 171

Can he succeed and can he survive? He is a listener and an energetic networker. If anyone can find a way forward it may be him but his problems will be immense

09.09.2025 19:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 22    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทโ€ผ๏ธ Sebastien Lecornu, the new French PM, is a confidante of President Macron, a centre right politician from Normandy who joined Macron in 2017 and has been in every government since then.

09.09.2025 19:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 41    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

โ€ผ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท The French PM Francois Bayrou lost a parliamentary confidence vote by a landslide tonight - 364 to 194. 16 members of his own coalition voted against him or abstained

08.09.2025 17:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 29    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Her fate depends on findings of PMโ€™s adviser on ministerial standards. If she breached ministerial code, sheโ€™ll have to go. May hinge on whether she took proper advice from tax lawyer on stamp duty rather than informal advice eg from solicitor (not good enough). 60-40 she stays - she is in danger

03.09.2025 15:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 13    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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UK deputy prime minister Angela Rayner admits underpaying tax Labour politician refers herself to governmentโ€™s ethics adviser over ยฃ800,000 Hove flat

Couldnt make this stuff up

www.ft.com/content/064f...

03.09.2025 14:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 24    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The Far Right would remain unchanged on around 31-33% and both the splintered Left and the Centre Right would advance slightly. Although no second round seat totals are projected, the figures suggest that the Assembly would remain split three ways with no obvious governing majority ENDS

03.09.2025 13:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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In an Ifop poll (see screenshot), the governing Centre alliance is given only 15% of the vote in a new election. An Elabe poll at the weekend gave them 14% - compared to 23% in the indecisive snap election last June 5/

03.09.2025 13:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Two other polls in recent days will confirm Macronโ€™s determination not to call another parliamentary election to try to resolve the budget impasse. Both polls suggest that Macronโ€™s Centre would lose seats, the Far Right would gain but France would still be left without a parliamentary majority 4/

03.09.2025 13:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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