Paul Mitchell

Well, no minor parties are going to have a significant role in the outcome of the race except to removes some of the major party votes. Happy to provide 10 and 12% options there, and move a minor party candidate into the main set of candidates if any were polling over 1%… but haven’t seen that yet.

Who will it be? And could it be two Republicans?

It’s the most intense parlor game in Sacramento.

So I made a game out of it.

Real polling, real campaign finance and betting market data, and 5,000+ campaign simulations, but take it all with a pinch of salt.

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Mapmaker Paul Mitchell on California's emergency redistricting proposal - Capitol Weekly CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Governor Newsom and Democratic allies announced Thursday that they will propose a constitutional amendment — The Election Rigging Response Act — to counter Texas and other Red ...

CAPITOL WEEKLY PODCAST: Prop 50 will decide whether or not CA will adopt new congressional district maps to offset Texas and other red states' mid-decade redistricting. We spoke with @paulmitche11.bsky.social, the CA data guru who drew the state's new proposed maps
capitolweekly.net/mapmaker-pau...

With the @nytimes and @ShaneGoldmacher writing about the downfall of the Democratic party, it's important to note that in CA we are seeing a big bounce back since January, both with ALL voter registrations, and even more with first-time registrations.

Sarah! Hope all is well!

CA120: California Republicans definitively choose Trump over Musk - Capitol Weekly In just 90 minutes last week, the storied bromance between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk imploded in a barrage of X posts, Truth Social rants, and public jabs, shattering their so-called Co-Pre...

In just 90 minutes last week, the bromance between President Trump & Elon Musk imploded in a barrage of X posts, Truth Social rants & public jabs, shattering their so-called Co-Presidency. @paulmitche11.bsky.social polled Republican views on the feud.
capitolweekly.net/california-r...

CA 120: For California Dems, will the past be prologue? - Capitol Weekly This weekend Democrats are meeting at their annual convention in Orange County. With just over a year before the 2026 Primary, and short of 18 months before the General Election, we wanted to take the...

This weekend @cademocrats.bsky.social are holding their annual convention in Orange County. With just over a year before the 2026 Primary & about 18 months out from the General Election, pollster/data guru @paulmitche11.bsky.social takes the temperature of CA Dems
capitolweekly.net/for-californ...

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The next report comes Friday, but there could be newer information from
Political Data before then on additional ballots received by the county, and where those are from will be telling.

There is also a distinct geographic split, and these voters in the hills are traditionally earlier voters, so ballots that are received in the coming days from renters and younger voters... again, that looks like a chance for @BarbaraLee_CA to pull this out.

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One theory of the case is that older voters cast their ballots earlier, and they have known and voted for Barbara Lee for decades... But another theory is that renters and younger vote later, and her stances on Gaza and progressive causes helps her with these later voters.

a man in a purple suit and top hat is saying `` please , tell us more '' . ALT: a man in a purple suit and top hat is saying `` please , tell us more '' .

Folks suggesting that the Oakland Mayor's Race is decided, with @barbaraleeformayor.bsky.social a couple percentage points short of @lorenmtaylor.bsky.social - but it's not over yet.

Oakland shows 52,352 ballots returned (per PDI) but total cast is only 48,452. There will be more to count!

What Donald Trump’s order to change election requirements means for California President Donald Trump signed an executive order Tuesday to require proof of citizenship to vote and to prohibit ballot counting after Election Day.

Trump’s order to ban ballot counting post-Election Day is like “fanfiction” for a third term, says @paulmitche11.bsky.social.

“If you were writing out the fan-fiction for that, it would start with him fighting states about the administration of elections.”

www.sacbee.com/news/politic...

CA 120: Gavin's podcast - Presidential run or empire building? - Capitol Weekly Gov. Gavin Newsom's new podcast has sent shockwaves through California's political world. But is there more to Newsom's efforts than meets the eye?

Who would go through the trouble of poll-testing the “This is Gavin Newsom” interview with @charliekirk1111.bsky.social?

@paulmitche11.bsky.social, of course

capitolweekly.net/ca-120-gavin...

Want better local redistrictings? How about we let city and county redistrictings to be appealed to the state redistricting commission. They’re not doing anything! open.substack.com/pub/paulmitc...

Home | Substack Discover and discuss great writing with the world’s smartest readers on Substack.

For anyone here interested in a little redistricting / elections nerdy tale, I’m stirring the pot a bit in the city of Irvine. substack.com/@paulmitche1...

Wonder what the algorithms are on a recommend I read in 2025!

No fiction at all this year - except for books on tape when I’m riding. For some reason when I sit down with a cup of tea I’m drawn to serious books and biographies.

CA120: Curing California’s ‘extra innings’ elections - Capitol Weekly While in other states, they’re packing up the campaign office in mid-November, in California races are still being won and lost through organized field programs doing ballot signature “curing” that wa...

"The final result in Congressional District 13, with Democrat @adamgrayca.bsky.social winning by just 187 votes over incumbent Republican John Duarte could have been determined by their ballot curing operation." - @paulmitche11.bsky.social

capitolweekly.net/ca120-curing...

Yeah. Just fyi, those point in time counts aren’t actually measuring how many new registered in each party. If 85 year olds are more likely to be Dem than rep, then more dems are dying too. Or if Dem counties are doing more voter file cleanup then dems will drop. I will look at registrations.

I will look at that. What’s your methodology for the counting?

The Trump landslide that wasn't Since the election, Trump's percentage of the national vote has been dropping. Turns out his victory was slim, not a landslide.

When I tell a reporter “well, you’re not gonna be able to use that quote” and she says “watch me!”

Like they say on the internets… read to the end.

www.latimes.com/politics/new...

Just want to communicate with friends and colleagues and keep up with news, without having to do so on a nazi porn bar site like x.