Vitor Possebom

Thank you.

Should I install Windows 11 instead of Windows S? It is a bit annoying that Windows S does not support many softwares, including Zoom…

Thank you for the suggestion! It looks cool!

I’m looking for podcast recommendations!

Maybe something based on history, like Revolutions: open.spotify.com/show/05lvdf9T7…

Or maybe something about economic policy? Like Americas Quarterly (open.spotify.com/show/5PCntXM9L ), but about the economy?

Thank you!

It is great seeing a new WP out in the wild!

👇👇👇

📉📈#Econsky, some of you may be interested in my new working paper about MTE with Duration Outcomes.

@pedrosantanna.bsky.social and Santi are amazing co-authors.

Was Javert right to be suspicious? Unpacking treatment effect... This paper presents new econometric tools to unpack the treatment effect heterogeneity of punishing misdemeanor offenses on time-to-recidivism. We show how one can identify, estimate, and make...

The paper also discusses other available methods in the literature, alternative assumptions, and decision-theoretical reasons to focus on time-to-recidivism as an outcome variable.

Check the full paper here: arxiv.org/abs/2311.13969

Our QMTE point estimates suggest that designing sentencing guidelines that encourage strict judges to become more lenient could lead to increasing time-to-recidivism.

These point estimates
suggest that defendants whom almost all judges would punish would take longer to recidivate,
while defendants who would be punished only by tough judges would recidivate faster compared
to situations where they would not be punished.

All QMTE functions behave similarly. Although the level of the estimated QMTEs depends on the quantile, all functions are decreasing in the unobserved resistance to punishment.

To have a deeper understanding of the time trade-offs associated with the effect of punishment on time-to-recidivism, we now focus on the QMTE. They use easy-to-interpret units (days before recidivism) and may work as good summary measures.

This rich heterogeneity is relevant. If two researchers were to focus only on a specific but different
time frame they may get different answers, highlighting that the practice of “binarizing” duration outcomes may come with caveats.

But things change a lot in the long-run! The DMTEs are decreasing. This indicates that defendants whom almost all judges would punish would recidivate faster because of the punishment, while defendants who would be punished only by tough judges would take longer
to recidivate.

The DMTEs are increasing in the short-run. This behavior indicates that defendants whom almost all judges would punish are less likely to recidivate, while defendants who would be punished only by tough judges are more likely to recidivate.

For inference, you can use the weighted bootstrap! Piece of cake!

And we do show that everything is consistent and asymptotic normal!

Now, it is time to estimate the effect of misdemeanor punishment on time-to-recidivism.

We use a conditional local IV estimand to identify the distributional treatment responses. After that, we can get the DMTE and the QMTE.

Our estimation procedure is a bit long, but super easy to implement! You only need to run a few logit models and take some averages!

We do so by looking at the Distributional MTE and the Quantile MTE of time-to-recidivism, a continuous variable.

We impose Random Assignment and Censoring. The last assumption imposes that the sentence date is independent of the defendant’s decision to commit another crime.

To look at long-run recidivism, our Econometric tools need to appropriately address right-censoring.

We also want to use the MTE to analyze heterogeneity with respect to the defendants’ punishment resistance.

So we need to develop new tools combining MTE and duration outcomes!

First, long-run recidivism matters in São Paulo, Brazil. A non-negligible share of recidivism events happens 6-8 years after the judge’s decision.

So analyzing the effect of judges’ decision on long-run recidivism may matter when discussing sentencing guidelines.

Misdemeanor punishment (fines) can have heterogeneous effects on recidivism depending on the defendants’ types and time horizon.

We explore these sources of heterogeneity by looking at the marginal treatment effect of misdemeanor punishment on recidivism at many time horizons.

🚨New Working Paper🚨

Was Javert right to be suspicious? Unpacking treatment effect heterogeneity of alternative sentences on time-to-recidivism in Brazil

by Acerenza (scholar.google.com/citations?user…), Possebom and Sant’Anna (@pedrosantanna.bsky.social)

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2311.13969

Thank you for the kind words!

2nd Call for Papers: Humans Lacea Network. Place and date: The conference will be held at the Headquarters of the World Bank in Washington DC on March 14 and 15, 2024. Keynote Speakers: Michael Clemens and Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes Panel with Expert Researchers: David McKenzie and Claire Adida Scientific Committee: Santiago Perez, Claire Adida, David McKenzie, Cynthia Van Der Werf, Ana Maria Ibafiez, Marcela Meléndez, Antonella Bandiera, and Sandra Rozo. The deadline for submitting complete papers is December 15, 2022. Full papers, in PDF format, should he submitted online via humanslacea@gmail.com. The authors of accepted papers will be notified by email on January 31st, 2023. There will be a dedicated discussant for each paper, as well as open floor discussion. Airfare and accommodations will be covered for up to one presenter of the selected papers. Founders of the network include Ana Maria Ibanez (Network head), Marcela Meléndez, Antonella Bandiera, and Sandra Rozo.

🚨 Call for Papers

—Conference on the economics of migration in Latin America, Mar. 14–15 in Washington

—Featuring top researchers @sandrarozo.bsky.social @dmckenzie.bsky.social @claireadida.bsky.social et al., run by HUMANS network of LACEA

—With a keynote by me

—Submissions due 🔜 December 15

Sometimes, I think that journals do not know that many of its readers have eyesight problems...

Elsevier's font size is so small and its line spacing is miniscule.

QT with 10 of your favorite novels

Ubirajara by Alencar

Vidas Secas by Ramos

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

Assassin’s Apprentice by Hobb

The Final Empire by Sanderson

Percy Jackson and The Lightening Thief by Riordan

I tried to focus on the novels that marked my life in some way.

Following my theme of comparing academic and fictional writing, are there any similarities between economic papers and world building in fantasy?

Are theory papers hard world building (LoTR)? Are empirical work more like soft world building (Narnia)? What about Econometrics?

I like @peibich.bsky.social’s solution. I would also check the distribution of Z for men and women. If they differ, the weighted average of LATEs (I.e., your 2SLS) will be different, even if the underlying LATEs/MTE are the same.

Probable Causation is an amazing podcast and this interview with Allison Stashko is awesome: open.spotify.com/episode/0rfq...

They discuss the effect of newly elected prosecutors and police killings in the US. It is based on this paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1LwnA....

#EconSky 📉📈

Advances in Econometrics is putting together an issue on "Econometrics of Climate, Energy, and Green Transition" edited by Eric Hillebrand, Marina Friedrich, & @smueconomics.bsky.social's Tom Fomby.

Paper submissions due Nov 30!

Info at: tinyurl.com/py9n677y