Sam Carana

Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to remain low and may reach a record low volume in 2026. As the difference between strong melting (magenta bars) and little melting (green bars) is 3000 km³, strong melting from April 2026 may cause a Blue Ocean Event in 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent was 1.38 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on Mar 1, 2026 (black), 2nd lowest daily anomaly on record and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.12σ. On Mar 1, 2025 (purple), the standard deviation was -3.71σ, but it was -1.26σ on May 1, 2025. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on March 2, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts indicate that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

The image shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region through March 1, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.49 million km² on March 1, 2026, the second lowest extent on record for the time of year. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on March 1, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-...

Left: Temperature anomalies at the bottom end of the scale over parts of North America and Russia on February 27, 2026, while temperature anomalies are at the top end of the scale over much of the Arctic Ocean. Right: absolute temperatures. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.53 million km² on February 28, 2026, the second lowest on record for the time of year, a very dangerous situation, as we're moving out of a La Niña that is suppressing temperatures into an El Niño that is elevating temperatures. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 28, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent was 1.36 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on February 27, 2026 (black), the second lowest anomaly on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.96σ. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The image shows that the Arctic sea ice extent was the second daily lowest on record on February 27, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The image, adapted from NSIDC, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was second lowest on record for the time of year on February 27, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The image shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 1°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region through February 28, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The image shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent was second lowest on record for the time of year on February 26, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 27, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Update of temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The image shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 24, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent was 1.32 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on February 23, 2026 (black), the second lowest anomaly on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.89σ. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The 2026 El Nino Blog edited by Sam Carana, with news on climate change and warming in the Arctic due to snow and ice loss and methane releases from the seafloor.

Magic Steve, if strong melting will take place from April 2026, there may well be a Blue Ocean Event in September 2026. See analysis at arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 23, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Arctic sea ice extent through February 22, 2026, for the months January, February and March. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

In 2016, a strong El Niño year, Arctic sea ice extent fell strongly and remained low in early 2017 and early 2018. The El Niño that developed in 2023 contributed to low sea ice extent early 2025 and early 2026. So, why the 2012 record low? Read the post at: arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The 2026 El Nino Blog edited by Sam Carana, with news on climate change and warming in the Arctic due to snow and ice loss and methane releases from the seafloor.

Thanks Rudy, also discussed in the recent post at arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

In 2016, a strong El Niño year, Arctic sea ice extent fell strongly and remained low in early 2017 and early 2018. The El Niño that developed in 2023 contributed to low sea ice extent early 2025 and early 2026. So, why the 2012 record low? Read the post at: arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

The image, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice extent through February 21, 2026, for the months January, February and March. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) was as high as 526 ppm on February 22, 2026. The image also shows that CO₂ concentrations are high across the Arctic. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...

Methane concentrations were as high as 2498 ppb on February 19, 2026. Methane tends to be higher closer to the North Pole, while methane is particularly high at this altitude, unlike CO₂ that has its highest concentrations close to the surface. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-...