Jane Green

I’ve long wondered whether many Labour bigwigs are moved by identity more than strategy. They regard Labour as “fundamentally”/“existentially” working class—and white, like their grandparents—and would rather lose appealing to that identity than win with a middle-class, socially liberal coalition.

Such a great thread that frankly provides far more insight than people like me spamming polling numbers!

Love this photo!!!

Sometimes the bleeding obvious clashes with peoples priors!

No of course not. But you can vote against Labour in Manchester in a by-election and still think Labour would probably more competently manage the national finances and the country, foreign affairs, etc etc than the Greens. For now...

Anti-Reform vote

Currently more trusted than Reform/Greens/LDs, but that could indeed change!

I would argue wilfully dismissed (for political reasons). Some commentators have been repeating what they're being told - not reading for themselves!

One of the oddities of British politics today is how both major parties have come to misunderstand what their potential voters actually want

No, but he could be deputy PM

The one real selling point for Labour and the Conservatives is to try to again convince people that they are better parties of government, trusted on economy, running things. Making life better. Labour has a reputation it could still save, I'm not sure about the Tories!

Last May @martamiori.bsky.social and I wrote:

"British voters faced will be faced with choices of different dominant parties in the same electoral system. It would just mean they are different from the two dominant parties than we have been used to."
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/the-...

I’d assume that Reforms ceiling is lower in East Oxford and Anneliese’s local profile may help her more. But certainly v high Green potential.

This evidence has been shared widely, as with everything we do. It’s known.

Even now you will find very senior people in Labour who just do not take the threat from the left seriously at all, and who simply refuse to believe who their own voters actually are. Now that the Greens actually realise who their voters can be, they have a big opening.

Opinion - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

Thank you! more where that came from here if you're interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/

A UK citizen, a doctor, a voter, AND a Nuffield colleague in the same week, let's not forget the last part :-) !

Here's a table in the new @britishelectionstudy.com book (forthcoming). We calculated 'second preferences' - here Labour voters after elections 2015 to 2024.

50% of Labour's 2024 voters had Greens as second preference. 42% the Lib Dems. The left bloc is coalescing behind the most viable left party!

Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

@martamiori.bsky.social and I have been writing, since 2024, about why Labour's 'Reform' challenge and emphasis was based on a misunderstanding of Labour's vote. Here for anyone interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Labour’s coalition and strategy is fraying in every direction. Starmer’s has anchored that strategy in saying only Labour can beat Reform. And (like Caerphilly) that’s just been shown to be nonsense. What’s left?

I am celebrating by-election day (well, it just so happens) by going to a supervisor dinner with my wonderful DPhil student Lukas Siebert, as the supervisor where I once took my supervisor to the supervisor dinner….

We’d need to take this to email please. Thank you.

The youth tracker ITV/Peston polls can now be found on the Savanta website. Feel free to let me know if you spot anything else missing.

We find that financial worries are a 'push factor' away from Labour, and then people are aligning with other parties who are closer to their existing views on other issues. The sentiments of 'anything is better', 'we just need a change' are powerful common ground.

@philipjcowley.bsky.social finding the head of the nail

Not everyone is a 'values voter'. We see a commonality in Lab>Green and Lab> Reform switchers among those with financial worries, for example. Could be a protest vote against expectations of government more broadly among people who do not feel pulled/pushed to either ideologically.

Just goes to show that in a fragmentation context its all about the margins...

I didn't pick up that he'd been there so much...

Blow people's (commentator) minds with that one!

Finding it interesting to see takes about why Starmer is visiting Gorton and Denton / what that says about expectations, meanwhile Starmer's political antennae and strategy is otherwise routinely criticised...

In a highly fragmented context, small changes matter. And there's greater uncertainty.