Jane Green

UK should not back a war that boosts Vladimir Putin Rising energy prices inadvertently strengthen Russia and weaken incumbent European governments

'!f you want to create the conditions for a chaotic and unpredictable reordering of our party system, “the governing party is in office during a sharp price shock that the opposition loudly supported the causes of” feels like a pretty good way to do that.' 👏 @stephenkb.bsky.social

On financial insecurity and Labour's losses:

We showed in Feb 2025 Labour losing young insecure voters to Greens, mid-life/older to Reform: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...

And we explain how econ insecurity is a push factor, magnifying other reasons for vote losses: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...

This also goes to the current moment in a direct and strangely ignored (so far) way ….

The domestic politics of Iran is NOT fundamentally in who supports whom in the conflict, because an inflation spike would be devastating for Labour!

That’s the massive elephant in the room, guys….

So this debate about Labour needing to move right or left misses the point as Chris is absolutely right to say you can get most voters with a mainstream pitch on social issues (and polling shows SM migration reforms can do that) but economic insecurity/affordability trumps it all.

“Not living, just surviving” “Working to live, living to work” “Nothing left over for the fun stuff” “Feels like I’m going backwards” - versions of this in every single focus group. The sense you work hard, do the right thing blue collar or white collar and still can’t get ahead

Worth reading by @chriscurtis94.bsky.social. Abundantly clear to anyone that spends a cursory amount of time on public opinion that economic insecurity, exacerbated 10x by cost of living crisis is driving political force of our time, fuelling Labour’s woes chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...

This is really worth reading, not least as it highlights how the 'Hero Voter' idea has been twisted beyond all recognition in most commentary and Westminster briefing.

In my work with @martamiori.bsky.social we also explain the votes-seats distribution through some of the points you make, so this is not to dispute that Labours share was low, nor that so much of it was anti-Tory coordination, etc.

We also find in our subsequent research that the Conservatives lost support 2019-2024 among those who felt financially insecure, and this broadly explains Labours losses now. Couple of reports with evidence using panel data and modelling available on @jrf-uk.bsky.social website.

Thank you..

Here @chriscurtis94.bsky.social tells the sequence, thinking and analysis actually behind ‘hero voters’, inc. how my research @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social on economic insecurity w/ @rosedegeus.bsky.social informed understanding of the economic basis of electoral coalitions pre-2024.

I definitely thought (and said) Reform would underperform with the candidate choice in G&D. Not just because of Muslim voters, but more affluent left-liberal voters too. V v strange choice.

Thanks Ben!

Some thoughts here on Labour’s greater electoral threat on the left and how the party has been over-reacting to its Reform threat:

www.itv.com/news/2026-02...

Reform are in denial about why they lost by 12% in Gorton & Denton (60% white, 80% UK-born) after losing by 11% in Caerphilly (98% white, 98% UK-born) to Plaid Cyrmu

Both seats unusual in seeing more people vote than at last Welsh Senedd/last GE: more voters turned out to stop Reform than supoort

I’ve long wondered whether many Labour bigwigs are moved by identity more than strategy. They regard Labour as “fundamentally”/“existentially” working class—and white, like their grandparents—and would rather lose appealing to that identity than win with a middle-class, socially liberal coalition.

Such a great thread that frankly provides far more insight than people like me spamming polling numbers!

Love this photo!!!

Sometimes the bleeding obvious clashes with peoples priors!

No of course not. But you can vote against Labour in Manchester in a by-election and still think Labour would probably more competently manage the national finances and the country, foreign affairs, etc etc than the Greens. For now...

Anti-Reform vote

Currently more trusted than Reform/Greens/LDs, but that could indeed change!

I would argue wilfully dismissed (for political reasons). Some commentators have been repeating what they're being told - not reading for themselves!

One of the oddities of British politics today is how both major parties have come to misunderstand what their potential voters actually want

No, but he could be deputy PM

The one real selling point for Labour and the Conservatives is to try to again convince people that they are better parties of government, trusted on economy, running things. Making life better. Labour has a reputation it could still save, I'm not sure about the Tories!

Last May @martamiori.bsky.social and I wrote:

"British voters faced will be faced with choices of different dominant parties in the same electoral system. It would just mean they are different from the two dominant parties than we have been used to."
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/the-...

I’d assume that Reforms ceiling is lower in East Oxford and Anneliese’s local profile may help her more. But certainly v high Green potential.

This evidence has been shared widely, as with everything we do. It’s known.

Even now you will find very senior people in Labour who just do not take the threat from the left seriously at all, and who simply refuse to believe who their own voters actually are. Now that the Greens actually realise who their voters can be, they have a big opening.