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Paddy Carter

@paddycarter.bsky.social

Head of development economics at British International Investment, formerly CGD, ODI, lapsed academic economist and macroeconomics hobbyist. https://sites.google.com/site/paddycarter/

3,433 Followers  |  1,131 Following  |  1,565 Posts  |  Joined: 18.10.2023
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Posts by Paddy Carter (@paddycarter.bsky.social)

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Christ. And, WTF?

27.02.2026 13:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Why hasn't Microsoft used the wonders of AI to improve inbox search in Outlook? I'd have thought that was so called low hanging fruit

(Someone is going to tell me they have, this is user error. I still spend time failing to locate emails I know are in my inbox somewhere)

26.02.2026 10:04 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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H1 Holdings completes R1.9bn Kenhardt equity transaction - H1 Holdings H1 Holdings (β€œH1”) has partnered with The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited, acting through its Corporate and Investment Banking division (β€œStandard

The early-in DFIs have now exited the Kenhardt project mentioned in that thread, attracting local capital

www.h1holdings.co.za/h1-holdings-...

26.02.2026 09:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Africa’s Largest Standalone Battery Energy Storage Project Powers Ahead as Globeleq’s Red Sands BESS Reaches Commercial Close Powering Africa's Growth

Here's a storage example
globeleq.com/africas-larg...

Trading
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...

Secondaries
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...

26.02.2026 09:27 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I think @britishintinv.bsky.social can take some credit for this. Not only did we back pioneering generation and storage, we're also working on market development, the first energy trading co. and secondary vehicle (details below)

26.02.2026 09:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I have a Mornington Crescent sign, because my dad worked on the station upgrade. I need to figure out how to locate a wealthy fan of I'm Sorry I Haven't a Clue

25.02.2026 13:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

(it's not quite the same, it has school kids passing notes on class using an app)

24.02.2026 13:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is a joke in the new Sam Rockwell AI satire movie Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die

(someone else has probably already pointed this out)

24.02.2026 08:49 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I've only skimmed that paper the the phase "model based" in the title is a caveat

23.02.2026 15:59 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Curbing Rising Housing Costs: A Model-Based Policy Comparison (Summer 2025) - Recent decades have seen house prices grow strongly relative to incomes, making housing ever less affordable. We develop and quantify a model of segmented housing markets to study the ...

"Which type of new housing is built matters: new construction in the high-end segments improves affordability by more *in all segments of the housing market* compared to new construction in bottom-end segments."

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

23.02.2026 15:16 β€” πŸ‘ 36    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Weekly links February 20: is that event study valid? Industrial development, nation building, local research, and more…

In this week's links, the rise of services and industrial development, should funders have local author mandates, do those mover designs/event studies make sense, how to build a nation, and more... blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...

20.02.2026 14:23 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I was nosing around @afinetheorem.bsky.social 's website and found two things I think will interest some here
1. his review of 6 books about econ impact of AI
www.kevinbryanecon.com/BryanAIBookR...
2. his syllabus for a course on "how big things get done"
www.kevinbryanecon.com/Bryan-Progre...

13.02.2026 11:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Ambitious new paper: sorting the "determinants of development" by whether they can be ranked by importance and whether they can be altered through policy intervention. Most successful development episodes adapted to local traits rather than tried to change

economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...

09.02.2026 09:20 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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AI Personality Extraction from Faces: Labor Market Implications Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

The return of phrenology

09.02.2026 08:30 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

But also maybe him realising this is the least painful exit he's got on offer

04.02.2026 21:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I am looking forward to reading this. From what I've seen so far it seems to be much more positive about agriculture across Africa than what I've read elsewhere. Does he have different data on different elements of the system, or is he reading it differently?

04.02.2026 12:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks

04.02.2026 08:51 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Is the story here about cutting back on vaccine development in the US and therefore everywhere, or is the story here about cutting back in the US but continuing everywhere else?

04.02.2026 08:36 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, I'm not suggesting the US is unimportant. I am asking why the work on vaccine development cannot continue with trials in Europe (or elsewhere) for sale outside the US

04.02.2026 08:34 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Do they explain why the European market isn't large enough for them to continue there?

04.02.2026 08:14 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

In the Culture novels nobody needs to work so they do artisan cookery, pottery, fun drugs, extreme sports. Those options were not given to the refugees in that experiment. I don't know what leisure opportunities we can expect in AI UBI utopia.

03.02.2026 18:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp (November 2022) - Employment may be important to well-being for reasons beyond its role as an income source. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in refugee ca...

You might be interested in this experiment which gave some people cash and others work and found people prefer work to extent they would sacrifice income to do it (very different context!)

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

03.02.2026 18:03 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

why isn't there more "boycott OpenAI" chat based on the Brockmans evidently being absolute ghouls

03.02.2026 14:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

has anyone come across a good concise "this is what will happen when the new Fed chair cuts rate like Trump wants"?

Analysis of implications for EMs would be nice.

03.02.2026 13:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

was anyone really aware of all the plans they had for ICE? I don't know why does anyone thinks they know what plans MAGA has for November.

03.02.2026 09:29 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I've just digitised the 1977 Muppet Show LP, I shall somehow transfer it to you for your son.

31.01.2026 18:41 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Edutainment to Prevent Violence Against Women and Children Abstract. Edutainment has potential to drive large-scale behavior change, yet its effectiveness in addressing violence against women and children remains a

a while back, the "Ethiopian spice girls" was picked up by the press as the exemplar of dumb things that foreign aid gets wasted on. Here is a new WB review of evidence about "edutainment" to reduce violence against women and children

academic.oup.com/wbro/article...

30.01.2026 17:47 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

the little arcade between the station and the street is crying out for investment, I wonder why it hasn't got it

30.01.2026 15:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I am enjoying this week's "the UK population is negatively selected" and "here in America we are chock full of absolute lunatics"

30.01.2026 12:34 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Aye but that case would be dominated by anything else that also generates demand but is socially useful.

That said, I think I've read about civilian technology spillovers from defence R&D

29.01.2026 21:19 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0