Black Sheep Weather

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow. Possibly heavy at times. Heavy snow accumulations possible. Low: 20

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of AM snow. High: near 30

SUNDAY NIGHT: Colder. Mostly cloudy early then clearing. Low: 7-13

MONDAY: Sunny. High: low-mid 20s

WEDNESDAY: 50% chance of AM snow showers then mostly sunny. High: 40-45 Low: 23-27

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of PM and overnight rain/snow mix. High: mid 40s Low: 23-28

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High: near 40 Low: mid 20s

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of snow. High: mid 30s

REGIONAL WEATHER FORECAST
MON MAR 9, 2026 -- 4:40PM CDT

TONIGHT: 40% chance of rain/snow after midnight. Low: low-mid 30s

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few PM showers. High: low 40s

TUESDAY NIGHT: Rain/snow mix turning to all snow. Accumulations up to 1". Low: 27-33

The big show looks to be on Saturday. The more dependable models from this winter season are in good agreement and have brought the storm track further south. Good moisture flow, cold air, and strong dynamics means we could see impressive snow totals above 12" across the area.

Updates out as needed

Rinse later and repeat for Thursday night into Friday with a heavier snow band north of our area with snowfall totals of a coating in the Twin Cities to 1-2" in St. Cloud. Along the US-2 corridor and north could see upwards of 5".

REGIONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
MON MAR 9, 2026 - 4:30 PM

A sunny afternoon will give way to cooler temperatures and clouds overnight. Rain/snow starts early then changes to all snow towards morning, accumulations of a coating to 1" are expected. A few lucky places could see up to 3".

Tomorrow, I plan on doing a deep dive into the models, some good old-fashioned paper and pencil analysis to get a more solid forecast for both Tuesday night and for the weekend.

I will have a morning and afternoon discussion and forecast followed by a video update.

Winter isn't done with us yet!

The intensity question is what is up in the air.

IF we see a heavy band of snow in the region, that will strongly suppress high temperatures in the areas with the deepest snow pack. The one upside, the sun angle is climbing and starts to make good headway on any accumulation pretty quickly.

The models are just one of the many tools we have in our toolbox to predict the weather. Seven days out is on the edge of fantasy land (anything beyond 7 days is a general idea, not a solid forecast). Will we see a system over the weekend? Most signs point to yes.

Next weekend, let's just get it out there in the open: Some of the computer models are bringing in what could be a massive winter storms with 8+ inches of snow on Saturday night into Sunday.

Will it happen? Ask me on Thursday.

The work week is looking fairly calm aside from a quick hitting system on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that could drop 1-3" of slush just in time for the AM commute. Monday and Friday look to be sunny with highs ranging in the 40s during the week.

REGIONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
SUN MAR 8, 2026 - 9:00PM CDT

Well, we almost hit 60 at MSP (59) and St. Cloud hit 54. For reference, Rochester's high was 57 and Redwood Falls was 68.

Today was all about the have and have-nots of sunshine.

** QUICK UPDATE **

Our cloud cover does not appear to be breaking up and will linger through the day.

High temperatures will be held down to around 60 instead of approaching 70 today.

Full update this evening.

Get out and enjoy a beautiful sunny and warm Sunday! Highs will be well into the 60s across our region! We have a partly cloudy work week in store aside from some scattered snow showers on Tuesday night. Our Intro Music: Weather Report by MaxKoMusic | https://maxkomusic.com/ Music promoted by htt Details of a glorious Sunday and then a work week preview.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. High near 40 Low: 20-25


Video forecast posted to YouTube:
youtu.be/nK5ZnVK6vHI

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TUESDAY: Becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Snow showers possible overnight. High: mid 40s Low: near 30

WEDNESDAY: Cooler. Partly sunny. High: near 40 Low: near 25

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High: 45-50 Low: 30-35

FRIDAY: Sunny. High: mid 40s Low: mid 20s


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REGIONAL WEATHER FORECAST
BLACK SHEEP WEATHER
MAR 7 2026 -- 5:45 PM

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Colder. Lows around 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly clear, warm. High: mid-upper 60s Low: around 40

MONDAY: Mostly clear. Cooler. High: mid 40s Low: mid 30s

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However, the cold front is passing through the Twin Cities now, St. Cloud is down to 44 while Willmar is already 32. MSP is at 49 and Red Wing is at 52.

If you are wondering where our warmth got stuck? Iowa City is 68 and Des Moines is 70.

** UPDATE: Fri 3/6 5:00PM **

There are a few thundershowers in the region. One is moving towards Gaylord, MN, another is heading into Ellsworth, WI. There have been a few rumbles of thunder down towards Granite Falls to Willmar but those seem to have faded away.

Tuesday's highs will only be around 40 but we start warming up again with highs in the low-mid 40s on Wednesday and near 50 on Thursday.

#mnwx #wiwx #iawx

LONG TERM (Next week)

Monday sees another cold front and we cool back down to the upper 40s to near 50 for highs. Monday night into Tuesday could see some snow, right now exactly where and how much is still fuzzy.

Skies clear out tomorrow afternoon and our high is around 40.

Sunday still looks sunny and near 60.

The bigger effect of the storm path change is more cold air and a quicker change over to winter precipitation. The Twin Cities can expect 1-2" of snow and 0.1 to 0.2" of glaze ice overnight. St. Cloud and areas north and west of the Twin Cities will likely see 2-3" of snow and 0.1" of glaze ice.

Areas southeast of Duluth, MN to Lake Andes, SD can expect general storms. Areas from Sioux City, IA to Albert Lea to LaCrosse to Green Bay are still in the marginal risk (1/5) of severe storms. Areas south of that have a slight risk (2/5). Southwestern Iowa is in an enhanced risk (3/5).

National Weather Service graphic showing a winter weather advisory in effect for areas west of US 169 in Minnesota from 6pm tonight to 9am tomorrow.

Storm Prediction Center map showing the southern 2/3rd of Minnesota in a general chance of thunderstorms along with the southeastern corner of South Dakota from about Brookings to Lake Andes. Areas southeast of a line from Albert Lea to LaCrosse to Green Bay are in a marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 out of 5). Large parts of Iowa are in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms as is the southwest corner of Wisconsin from Prairie du Chien to Madison to Beloit. The slight risk also includes the western half of Illinois from St. Louis to Rockford. The southwestern quarter of Iowa is in a enhanced risk of severe storms. (Level 3 out of 5).

Area Forecast Discussion
Black Sheep Weather
1:30 PM CST Fri Mar 5, 2026

SHORT TERM (This weekend)

Those hoping for storms (raises hand), prepare to be let down. The very strong activity to our south has pulled the track of the low from Central Iowa to Wisconsin Dells instead of Rhinelander.

** REGIONAL NOTE **

The Government of Canada announced that it will completely shut down its Weatheradio service on March 16. Canada’s radio marine broadcasts. However, if you are a back country camper/hiker who uses the Canadian network, you will need to find alternate sources of information.

Our warm weather was never guaranteed to last. We will be on a temperature roller coaster with highs running above normal every day. Will we see more snow this season? Will it turn cold again? Of course we will and of course it will! And it'll all happen in the next seven days especially for are Four seasons in one day on Friday! Storms, rain, snow, and ice all possible.

New video forecast and discussion posted to YouTube:

youtu.be/e9ifdm43yCQ

I'll have another couple of text updates tomorrow as my voice is starting to give me issues.

I will have a live stream up with watches/warnings/etc but I will only pop in to add color commentary.

** REGIONAL UPDATE **
** DENSE FOG ADVISORY until NOON THURSDAY **

The advisory is for areas north and west of a line from Olivia to Center City in Minnesota.

We are watching this fog potential and are expecting additional fog advisories to be issued later this evening.

There is a 30% chance I'll go live at some point Thursday night into Friday. I don't know that the day 3 slight/enhanced will reach the Twin Cities, but severe weather will be close enough to be monitored.
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** ADMIN UPDATE **

We were hoping to have a video up today about the marginal risk of severe storms on Friday for Southern Minnesota but my voice is still shot.

If my voice recovers by evening, I'll have to video out today. If not, I will definitely have a video out tomorrow.
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Thursday: Morning fog then mostly sunny. High 53 Low 40.

Friday: Rain and storms changing to snow overnight. High 55 Low 26

Saturday: Cooler, partly sunny. High 45 Low 36

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 57 Low 37

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 58 Low: 33

Tuesday: Cooler. Sunny skies. High 46 Low 30
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