Black Sheep Weather

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MPX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: <50 MPH (RADAR INDICATED), hail: 1.00 IN (OBSERVED)] for Wright [MN] till 3:15 AM CDT Link

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MPX cancels Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Sherburne, Wright [MN] Link

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MPX continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH (RADAR INDICATED), hail: 1.00 IN (RADAR INDICATED)] for Wright [MN] till 2:30 AM CDT Link

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MPX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH (RADAR INDICATED), hail: 1.00 IN (RADAR INDICATED)] for Sherburne, Wright [MN] till 2:30 AM CDT Link

Programming update:

If nothing has changed/intensified by 1:00am, I will be ending the live stream. The watch has been cancelled west a line from Long Prairie to Windom. Currently, the one cluster of storm is sub-severe.

#mnwx

Update: Sat Aug 9, 20 - 12:45am

No warnings at this time. The cold front is roughly from Brainerd to Cold Spring to Litchfield to Redwood Falls.

Storms along the front from St Cloud/Clearwater back down to Litchfield and south to Hector are subsevere with heavy rain and lightning.

#mnwx

Black Sheep Weather - YouTube My name is John Lamb and I am a meteorologist by hobby and education. I love severe weather both summer and winter.Our focus at Black Sheep Weather will be M...

** UPDATE: Fri Aug 8, 2025 - 1130pm

Severe storms moving towards St. Cloud at 20mph.

New storm development is happening near Litchfield ahead of the cold front and could strong storms to the Metro later.

We're live at youtube.com/@blacksh...

Black Sheep Weather - YouTube My name is John Lamb and I am a meteorologist by hobby and education. I love severe weather both summer and winter.Our focus at Black Sheep Weather will be M...

Live stream with nowcasting!
youtube.com/@blacksh...

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MPX issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch till Aug 9, 4:00 AM CDT Link

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
2/2

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Minnesota
Far Eastern South Dakota
Northwest Wisconsin
Lake Superior

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 935 PM
until 400 AM CDT.

#sdwx #mnwx #wiwx
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Black Sheep Weather - YouTube My name is John Lamb and I am a meteorologist by hobby and education. I love severe weather both summer and winter.Our focus at Black Sheep Weather will be M...

Radar/warning stream up...I'll be up on the stream shortly.

youtube.com/@blacksh...

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WPC issues Day 1 Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Aug 9, 0:54z for DLH Link

Quick programming update:

En route back to the studios. Live stream likely around 9:30pk

** UPDATE 8:45 PM **

The SPC has indicated an 80% chance of a watch in the next couple of hours. Storm initiation appears underway near Sioux Falls.

#mnwx #wiwx

#SPC issues MCD 1905 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY [watch prob: 80%] [Most Prob: Tornado: 85-115 MPH, Hail: 1.50-2.50 IN, Gust: 65-80 MPH]: EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN Link

Update: Fri, Aug 8, 2025 - 7:45pm

There is a fine line triggering some showers but nothing more. The current thinking would bring storms into St Cloud between 1-4am and the Metro 2-5am.

Heavy rain and small hail are the primary threats overnight.

Very small chance of a live stream.

We are watching the development closely and will go live if conditions warrant.
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Update: Fri Aug 8, 2025 - 5:45pm

Storms are trying to fire along a line from Benson through Redwood Falls to Windom.

They are struggling with the strong capping inversion but the cold front is now approaching the MN Dakota border and that will help provide more lift to overcome the cap.
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I am monitoring the situation and will have my mobile "go live" bag as I will be out of the office/studio this evening due to a prior event. I will be live as soon as possible when storms start to initiate and stay developed.
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If they remain elevated, it will be primarily a hail threat with a secondary high wind threat.

Storms are trying to initiate around Sioux Falls, SD but are struggling due to the aforementioned capping.
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Currently, there is a very strong inversion (cap) of 16C that is keeping storms surpressed for the time being. Storm initiation is still expected between 6-8pm.

If storms can become surface based, all types of severe weather are on the table.
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Update: Fri Aug 8, 2025 - 3:40pm

So many variables, some of them quite conditional.

Thunderstorms are a given this evening/overnight.

Can the storms become surface based and feed on the heat/humidity? That's the million dollar question.
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Saturday night: Mostly clear. Low: 63-67

Sunday-Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs: 83-87 Lows: 63-67

Wednesday-Thursday: Warmer, Partly cloudy. Highs: 86-90 Lows: 66-69
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FORECAST: Fri Aug 8, 2025 - 2:00pm

** HEAT ADVISORY Metro (and Sherburne County) until 9:00pm **

Today: Mostly Cloudy. Hazy, Humid, and Hot. High: 86-89

Tonight: 40% of storms in the evening, 70% chance of storms after midnight. Low: 66-70

Saturday: Decreasing clouds. High: 78-83
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Dewpoints will return to the 60s and highs in the mid-80s.

Unfortunately, we seem to be in a pattern of getting a most substantive storm system every seven days...or Friday/Saturday.

At least we aren't talking winter storms and blizzards...yet.
9/9

The 5% Risk is the rest of MN except for the areas from Red Wing to Jackson, MN to Tyndall, SD. The Eastern 1/4 of ND and eastern/southern SD are in the 5% area.

** Saturday into next week

The weather calms down after tonight. We remain warm and humid but not to the same extent as today.
8/9

The eastern 1/4 of ND, Eastern/Southern SD and SE MN are in a 5% risk.

The 15% hail risk is from Clearwater, MN to Moose Lake, International Falls, Baudette, Wahpeton ND, De Smet SD, Granite Falls, to Clearwater.
7/9

As the activity spreads east and nighttime cooling begins, the storms will likely become elevated with a large hail threat being the primary threat.

There is a 15% wind area delineated from Baudette, to Mitchell, SD, Worthington, Mankato. Red Wing. Ironwood, MI then to Thunder Bay, ON.
6/9

There is a 5% tornado risk area that is to the left of a line Buffalo to Mora to Grand Rapids to Detroit Lakes to Fergus Falls to Wheaton to Granite Falls to Hutchinson to Elk River. Only a few tornadoes are expected (if any) but that would be the area of highest concern.
5/9