Peter Ricketts

Talking of the European dimension to nuclear deterrence it’s worth recalling that the UK deterrent has been declared to NATO (and therefore committed to the protection of all European allies) since 1962.

He certainly has a way with his allies

I admit it. Those are my views. And I think the Government are in the right place, even though it’s uncomfortable.

Keir Starmer joins Europe in split with US over Iran airs... The prime minister has made it clear the UK played no role in the attack on the regime as more cracks appear in the ‘special relationship’

Some thoughts here from me on Trump’s indifference to international law - and his increasing fascination with military force. observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

It’s a bit hard for the people of Iran to rise up while the bombs and missiles rain down. And when the bombardment stops, the men with guns are all too likely to be ready for more repression.

In short, the US and Israel have started this war with vague and unachievable objectives, with no int law base, and little or no support from Gulf states or other US allies. If Iran succeeds in hitting US/Israeli targets or disrupts oil exports, Trump will find using mil force is not risk free. End

But Gulf states would hate it, and there w’d probably be more internal oppression. As for regime adjustment, it’s surely an illusion that US bombing would enable a group of leaders more willing to work with the West to emerge. Changes like that will only come from within Iran. 4/5

Decapitation strikes on the leadership won’t produce regime change, as there is no organised opposition to take over. They might provoke regime collapse/chaos. Probable outcome: IRGC strongmen take over. Chaos would suit Netanyahu, reducing the threat from Iran to Israel before their elections. 3/5

The momentum of the build up has carried Trump into war, with no achievable political objective. He can’t bomb Iran into renouncing the right to enrich. Or eliminate every missile. Now he seems to be hinting at regime change -or as Justin Webb put to me quoting Niall Ferguson, regime adjustment’ 2/5

My line on BBCr4 Today on the Iran strikes was this. Last June there were intensive US/Iran talks under way. Aborted by Israeli strikes on Iran which US joined. I think this is similar. The US-Iran-Oman talks seemed to be going well. Netanyahu preempted, and Trump felt he had to follow 1/5

Another Israeli/US attack on Iran. High risk of Iranian retaliation. Time to assess what’s going oBBCr4 Today at 0810.

Worthy of Monty Python (high praise!)

Ganz richtig!

The tapestry looked wonderful on the giant screen at Piccadilly Circus (forgive the background noise!)

Great to be with the French Ambassador @AmbDuchene together with George Osborne and Dr Nick Cullinan, Chair and Director of the British Museum to admire the scenes from the Tapestry in spectacular 3D animation.

The Bayeux Tapestry up in lights at Piccadilly Circus! Tickets on sale from 1 July for the exhibition at the British Museum, opening in September. First chance in 1,000 years to see this iconic object back on British soil.

Delighted to be opening the debate tomorrow 26 Feb in the Lords around 1145 on the Committee’s Report on the UK-EU reset. With 37 speakers and many viewpoints it should be insightful and might be sparky! The old order is over. Whatever the shape of the new, closer UK-EU relations will be vital.

Thank you Gill!

The reported UK doubts about authorising US strikes from UK-operated airfields are therefore not at all surprising. It has long been the position that the UK has to satisfied about the international law basis for US combat operations from UK facilities. So the fact UK leases Diego is irrelevant. 5/5

It’s not clear that a major US attack could achieve any of these, except possibly bringing a weakened Iran back to the negotiating table. Even that is far from sure. And I don’t see that any would count as proportionate self-defence against an imminent threat to the US. 4/5

What escapes me is the political objective of a US attack. Regime change? But there is no organised opposition ready to take power. Regime collapse? That could lead to chaos and a takeover by IRGC hard men. Deterring further violence against civilians? Halting the nuclear programme? 3/5

Yet it’s a terrible reason to use military force because you would look weak if you didn’t. The US have the firepower to sustain a major air campaign. And to defend their and allies’ assets in the region. But no defence is watertight and some Iranian missiles could still get through. 2/5

Military build ups generate their own momentum. They reach a point where the forces have to be used or pulled out. That was a factor in the timing of Bush’s 2003 assault on Iraq. Trump has now got himself in a position where he needs a wider deal than Iran seems likely to offer. 1/5

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Thank you Helene you are right! Until the War, women were barred from being UK diplomats. The book tells the stories of intrepid women who showed they could be successful in doing tough jobs in difficult conditions and so broke the taboo: even tho it still took decades for them to reach top jobs

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Great news! The Giants have become a much-loved presence at our Memorial. 1475, one for each of those who fell just on 6 June. A poignant reminder of the scale of sacrifice required to liberate France, and the rest of occupied Europe. If you haven’t yet visited please do! x.com/britishmemor...

Thanks @davidallengreen.bsky.social. I was groping towards a similar conclusion here but from the angle of the damage to British diplomacy bsky.app/profile/lord...

It will be a great show. And there will be another 🇬🇧🇫🇷 event at the Royal Academy at the end of this year ‘Painting the French Riviera’ cue lots of Monets and more!