Viktor Orban is now 20 points behind in the polls - and so he has ordered the military to guard “key energy facilities” against a possible Ukrainian “attack.” Hungarians fear he plans a fake national security emergency or false-flag incident before the April 12 election
apnews.com/article/hung...
NEW
How Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence
How a close read of public domain documents show how MoD was commercially colonised by Palantir
By me, at FT
www.ft.com/content/5207...
Such a good piece today from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com which shows that the declining graduate premium is very much a UK problem rather than a general (or inevevitable) consequence of more people going to uni www.ft.com/content/649d...
20.02.2026 10:09 — 👍 197 🔁 73 💬 10 📌 15
Who is briefing the PM on this?
No prioritisation of the 62 recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review gov accepted in full, while the 2023 equipment plan has a £17 billion hole
No world in which that doesn’t require substantial work on what really gets funded within 2.6% commitment or 3% aim
The political effects of X's feed algorithm https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2 Received: 16 December 2024 Accepted: 4 January 2026 Published online: 18 February 2026 Open access • Check for updates Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.
A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right.
Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement.
This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.
Why didn’t MoD or DBT through the UK Space Agency place contracts as launch customers?
19.02.2026 18:34 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
BBC's Arabic radio service in Lebanon closed after 85 years as part of a £28.5m savings drive. 'Just months later, in October 2023, the Russian state-owned Sputnik news agency took over the frequency. Its news bulletin opened with “This is Moscow”, replacing the previous “This is London” intro.' 🙄
10.06.2025 06:03 — 👍 732 🔁 489 💬 36 📌 70
BBC World Service and the British Council are core elements of UK influence overseas. In this moment of geopolitical upheaval they are needed more than ever.
Appears reflective of wider spending issues. Could be Spring before we see a Defence Investment Plan, nearly 2 years after taking office.
Agree - result of government weakness on own side + wider distrust
As Parliament is sovereign govt needs to do more to bring all MPs into confidence on foreign and security matters
e.g. closed door sessions in Polish Sejm, intel briefings for all US congress members, defence courses in Nordics
Not a good idea
09.02.2026 19:29 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Per @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk: 'Reform has gobbled up a large chunk of the right-leaning youth, this is reallocation within an already shrinking bloc [...] rather than a far-right surge, the youth vote in the UK shows a remarkable opposite trend: a surge of progressive voting, including among young men'
07.02.2026 14:05 — 👍 38 🔁 21 💬 6 📌 0An Inspector calls
06.02.2026 18:24 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0it's really not over yet
05.02.2026 13:28 — 👍 196 🔁 20 💬 9 📌 11
A new national police force is the right move, but the case for merging local forces is much weaker
@cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...
Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance.
Danish Straits see about the same numbers.
BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots.
Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.
457 British service personnel died in Afghanistan
A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through
Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US
We need more publications from UK defence and intelligence sources in this style
2025 UK Strategic Defence Review said defence needed to reconnect with society as part of a national conversation on security
Contrast MI5’s threat update with, for example, the equivalent Estonian agency’s yearbooks
Finnish MILINT: Russia’s ability to utilise vessels sailing in the Baltic Sea region for hybrid influencing remains significant. It will likely persist in its ambitions to damage the undersea infrastructure of the Baltic Sea.
Download review here: sotilastiedustelukatsaus.fi/app/uploads/...
One reason I am gloomy about Britain’s ability to rise to this geopolitical moment is the sheer parochialism and unseriousness of much of its media. The Times, which used to be a serious paper, does not have a single comment piece today on the gravest international crisis in 80 years
21.01.2026 10:21 — 👍 653 🔁 163 💬 38 📌 17
Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
Interwar British defence spending/what rearmament actually looks like.
(Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).
This is key point - why is UK falling over itself to gain US “security guarantees” for Ukraine?
Given threats to Greenland, what are they worth? How many treaty commitments would US breach if it seized by force or coercion?
Answer is UK and France shirking responsibilities for defence of Europe
In fairness to Ed, he did recognise on Wednesday that higher defence spending is likely to be required sooner rather than later
Would be good to hear specifics of Lib Dems implied proposals to recapitalise the UK Armed Forces to allow simultaneous deployments to Estonia, Ukraine, and now Greenland
Do you like maps? These are good maps.
www.geostrategy.org.uk/research/bri...
Disclosure: I am in favour of Britain sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.
Questions: let's say at a minimum we are looking at one armoured brigade on a rotation basis (5k x 4), that is a significant chunk of our medically deployable troops at last count. Will we redeploy resources?
Ed + others saying similar must also explain their implied plan (and costs) for British (European?) strategic autonomy
UK remains critically reliant on the US for defence and intelligence, and in Ukraine
No choice to acquiesce unless serious about replacing US forces in Europe tomorrow - not 2034!
The FIFA Peace Prize doesn't mean what it used to
03.01.2026 09:42 — 👍 4247 🔁 829 💬 51 📌 15
And this is where the Prime Minister's most powerful tool becomes obvious. It is not a lever: it is a voice. The ability to set direction, to explain trade-offs, to legitimise patience, to share credit, and to tell a convincing story about how change actually happens. In a system where power is distributed, leadership is less about pulling harder and more about speaking clearly enough that others choose to move with you. That is not a consolation prize for the absence of control. It is the real work of governing.
The conclusion is spot on
28.12.2025 15:21 — 👍 59 🔁 13 💬 5 📌 3
When a group of defense insiders gathered in Whitehall, the home of the British government, last month to discuss how prepared the United Kingdom and its allies were for a war they believe could come in the next few years, their verdict was pretty grim: They are not. https://cnn.it/49bBhS2
26.12.2025 00:00 — 👍 62 🔁 23 💬 10 📌 3