Jatan Buch

Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, calle...

📣 New preprint "Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output" with Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus, Eva Walz and Alexander Jordan available at arxiv.org/abs/2506.03744. Some details below 🧵

Amdahl's law - Wikipedia

Useful law for estimating the overall speedup from ML/GPU optimizing subcomponents of scientific code

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%...

AI NWP models will solve this, right? RIGHT?

Thanks for the inquiry, Carly! While very interesting, paleoecology is not my area of expertise and I recommend you reach out to @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social or @mhurteau.bsky.social for a comment instead.

Ever been told to ""sleep on it""? 😴 @alanajaskir.bsky.social’s research shows how snoozing helps your brain learn!

#sleepbenefits #replay #hippocampus #academicsky #standupforscience

After losing 2 flight directors (my old job), the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are down to minimum staffing for continuous hurricane flights. And if I still had my old job, I'd be looking for new employment before the next onslaught of cuts.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/03/noaa...

Potentially interesting job for the NOAA crowd - Verisk, one of the biggest modeling firms in the insurance industry, is looking for an experienced atmospheric scientist.

Charles Jackson is hiring, who was on my PhD committee and is just a delight to work with, aside from being a kickass scientist.

Anecdotally, even, most of my peers who accepted faculty positions switched their research to focus more on public health impacts of climate/weather. Which is great! However, it is in no small part because NIH until recently used to be a much larger pool of new funding than NSF/DOE.

Provocative q: why admit more PhDs when static funding for the past decade or so (adjusted for inflation) has made tenure track offers in most areas quite limited?

This is a broader point beyond the completely egg-headed funding cuts that appear to be on the horizon.

YouTube video by TEDx Talks AI is making whole earth simulation possible--why that matters | Mike Pritchard | TEDxBoston

Pleased to share my views in a new TEDx talk on how AI offers compelling new ways to simulate the Earth with unprecedented resolution and interactivity:
youtu.be/I0nxFLh-iBg?...

Excited to share some great collaboration on a new data assimilation framework with transformer encoding arxiv.org/pdf/2502.02884. Exciting times for data assimilation with ML

☀️ APPS ARE OPEN for our Summer'25 MOMENTUM FELLOWSHIP ☀️

- For data sci PhD students @ a U.S. institution
- Mentorship of REU students
- June 9 - August 1
- 5 research projects based in NYC and/or Boulder, CO

📆 INFO + APPLY by 3/15/25: leap.columbia.edu/education-2/...

Kyleen Liao did stellar work with @karadlamb.bsky.social, Pierre Gentine, and me a while ago on simulating PM2.5 emissions from California wildfires using graph neural networks (GNNs). Her paper with cool new model validation results is out now: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

“Few patrons have ever supported science for the love of knowledge alone; most have had orthogonal (or at least oblique) motivations, be they prestige, power, or the solution of practical problems, and the available evidence suggests that those motivations make a difference.”

Words of wisdom from @naomioreskes.bsky.social's Science on a Mission.

A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned - Nature Communications Across many North American forests, recent years with exceptional area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. Nevertheless, abundant...

1/n
Please see our new paper in Nature Communications!

We used 1,851 tree-ring fire-scar sites and contemporary fire perimeters to quantify the prevalence of wildfire from 1600-1880 compared to 1984-2022. 🧪🌍🔥

Our key findings are as follows ...

Same. They were creative under constraints, now everyone benefits. Also a strong argument for open-sourcing all code.

Also consistent with my experience that PNAS is actually a terrible journal. I know of several PNAS papers that were either straight wrong or you could not reproduce their results.

I should have led off this thread with the statement: this is how to think about wildlife risk and what we can do about it. No safety intervention makes a community perfectly safe. Many reduce risk. It is a layered and cumulative effort. Think about auto safety to understand what I mean:

Is there a link between #ClimateChange & increasing risk/severity of #wildfire in California--including the still-unfolding disaster? Yes. Is climate change the only factor at play? No, of course not. So what's really going on? [Thread] #CAfire #CAwx #LAfires iopscience.iop.org/a...

Notice power generation - high wind events are bad news for transmission lines.

Suspect these statistics are worse for structures/fatalities - high wind fires make up 12% of burn area in western US, but 52% of lives/60% of structures lost, via @climate-guy.bsky.social @pyrogeog.bsky.social research

Skew-T Log-P xkcd.com/3032

Opinion | Republicans Would Regret Letting Elon Musk Ax Weather Forecasting Everyone benefits from government weather forecasting. Republicans have the chance to make it better.

“With the rising costs of and vulnerability to extreme weather in a changing climate for the United States, dismantling or defunding NOAA would be a catastrophic error”

Good op-ed from Ryan Maue in todays @nytimes: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/o...

What You See is Not What You Get: Neural Partial Differential Equations and The Illusion of Learning Differentiable Programming for scientific machine learning (SciML) has recently seen considerable interest and success, as it directly embeds neural networks inside PDEs, often called as NeuralPDEs, d...

Arvind, me, and Jonah released a new pre-print on some pen and paper analysis of fundamental failure modes and old school stability analysis for neural PDEs typically used in AI for Science application. arxiv.org/abs/2411.15101. 1/n

Is there a similar conversation we can have among climate scientists as the new administration freezes or cuts federal funding levels for climate related research? Should we be more private sector focused in our collaborations while also doing more public outreach in non-university spaces?

Opinion | Climate Science Can’t Keep Up With the Warming Planet We need more timely updates in response to the rapid changes to the climate.

We have an opinion piece at the NYT on the need to operationalize some aspects of climate science. 🧪

Thoughts welcome!

(Gift link)
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...

new christian right => fewer cars/household => climate mitigation?

Pete Buttigieg might be the rare politician that excels at both the literary and oral, then.

Most of the eastern US has been under drought conditions for a couple of months -- the intense winds yesterday and untimely ignitions did not help.

+1

Williams (2017): "While extreme drought has been rare in the SE U.S. over the past half century, the intensity and rapid onset of the SE U.S. drought in 2016, and its destructive impacts on wildfire...should motivate preparedness for reoccurrences of droughts of similar or stronger magnitude."

Thrilled to make LEAP's 1st jump into #Bluesky by hi-lighting our next-gen #climate #data scientists, who spearheaded today's ClimateML Methods Workshop + brought together early-career scientists in the #NYC area to share progress @ the intersection of #climate science + #ML!

#community #diversity