Convolver

Anyone who mistakes Cormac McCarthy’s prose for a badly-tuned Markov chain needs to produce epistemic proof they are not in fact a p-zombie.

I can tell you from experience that there is a strong institutional bias against communicating systemic risk, because it forces clients into big protective moves, and the fear of being the firm that “predicted seven of the last three recessions” is strong.

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Iran-GCC states escalation, specifically. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get more and more damaging asymmetric attacks on US targets within and outside the Middle East, but Iran wants to manage compellance escalation with the Gulf states carefully to avoid bringing them into the war directly.

You’ve got multiple Central Markets in Dallas proper, though, so that still counts.

He’s going to send Marco off to manage the cleaning staff at the Trump Copacabana Havana.

I do not think this professor of politics at the Catholic University of America actually understands what Burke meant by “appetites.”

We’re at the “Gorilla Channel, except it’s actually real” part of our decline and fall narrative.

It’s coordination game: Iran needs to credibly keep the strait closed but also wants to minimize escalation. If a few tankers “defect” and sail past, it stays beneath Iran’s threshold. If all tankers sail through, Iran will attack to restore credibility. The question is where that tipping point is.

Notably missing from that list: everything nuclear-related.

Turns out Trump and @dieworkwear.bsky.social are both equally offended by how the entire West Wing dresses.

Al-Habtoor isn’t going to say something so strong and inflammatory out of turn; you can read this as something along the lines of a track two demarche, communicating the UAE’s position in, uh, “full and frank” language but via a channel that won’t immediately raise a formal diplomatic incident.

The fact that the daughter of a peer, presumably born abroad, herself had to be naturalized seems at first blush to be dispositive to the argument that territory determined allegiance at birth, even in such a case.

AMB at the time was, AFAIK, not; given his later service in the Lords, it would seem that Robert was considered a natural-born citizen, I assume by dint of being born in the ambassadorial residence, but it seems his sister might not have been? Two siblings, both born abroad, only one naturalized.

I’ve got one that I haven’t been able to figure out, right at the cusp of the Civil War; Dorothy Spencer, daughter of Henry Spencer, Baron Whormleighton, and Dorothy Sidney, naturalized by act of Parliament in 1641, but their son Robert, born in Paris while Henry was visiting his FiL, the English /

U.S. weighs sending special forces to seize Iran's nuclear stockpile Preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon is one of Trump's stated war objectives.

Dilute on site is absurd & would almost certainly require prolonged physical control of the territory as well.

Iran’s 440kg-ish of 60% HEU is in HF6 (presumably) which is a solid at room temp.

In addition to bringing your own material to mix in, you’d have to find a way to make the

1/n

A JFE at Kharg is achievable but gonna be a bloodbath; trying to get CWMD teams to two separate high security sites 700 km into Iran is … ambitious. Let’s say “ambitious” and not “bugfuck crazy.”

The question really comes down to Iranian will, ability, and capacity to focus on Gulf petroleum infrastructure. The former likely increases as the threat to the regime escalate, while the latter two decrease over time under pressure. If those lines intersect, all economic hell breaks loose.

so you need a complete understanding of what’s getting built before Rumpelstiltskin and his little AI elf buddies go off and spin a bunch of code into existence from the straw of their linear algebra. Otherwise they build things incorrectly, poorly, or outside of the design scope.

solution, linking it to other business and organizational operations, and creating the actual solution to build, deploy, and run it. In fact, the up-front work is /more/ important, because choices you could previously delegate to human developers on a two-week “sprint” basis now get built in hours,/

most schematic parts (wiring language “syntax”), and help organize and accelerate questions about data modeling and designing how the logic is organized and executed (the “semantics”), humans are still the highest-value piece in imagining, researching, analyzing, designing, and architecting the /

then figuring out the business logic of actually generating and managing those invoices, plus the visual and experiential elements of the applications. Only then does someone sit down and write the code that translates all that knowledge into discrete pieces of logic. So while AI can replace the /

interact. For example, if you’re designing an invoicing system, you’re going to be analyzing how the work is currently done, understanding where the invoice details are coming from and how invoicing affects those systems, building a model to represent how invoices are stored in space and time, and /

It’s very much its own world, though I think it’s intellectually congenial to the legal mind, judging from the number of lawyers-turned-developers I’ve known. Most software is really about understanding how logic operates at scale, often with complexities around how specific pieces of logic /

mind that inasmuch as software is just generating language within a restricted and easily validated domain, it’s 100% in the LLM wheelhouse), but it transfers a lot of the work to the upfront architecture and solutioning side by un-bottlenecking the actual velocity of coding.

It’s a vast and complex combination of everything from product design and market fit to data modeling and algorithmic selection to project management and test creation, and only then do you delegate out the fingers on keyboards. AI is surprisingly good at semantics as well as syntax (and keep in /

They want to know a hard conversation? Explaining to your kid who the masked thugs are, why a bunch of classmates stopped coming to school last semester, and why other classmates’ parents are scared of ICE. /That’s/ a hard fucking conversation, not “Uncles Jim and Gavriel love each other very much.”

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I’ve gotta ping my plastics folks to get a sense of where they think materials sourcing looks like, but once you start talking about shutting down plastics supply chains you’re screwing with the critical path on a lot of downstream construction and manufacturing. Massive second-order effects.

Plastics, at least PE-based, would mostly first get shocked in EMEA/APAC and maybe Brazil, right? Any sense of how much US gas-based production could replace Mideast supply in the short/mid term, or are US producers already at capacity?