Steve Copertino

With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.

My digital shot of an EF5 tornado near Enderlin, North Dakota on the night of June 20, 2025.

My digital shot of an EF5 tornado near Enderlin, North Dakota on the night of June 20, 2025.

Pretty surreal to say I’ve officially documented an EF5 tornado. The first EF5 tornado since Moore 2013.

Enderlin, North Dakota - June 20, 2025.

Map of the eastern North Pacific showing thirteen TC locations where those storms first achieved category 4 hurricane strength. Green dots show May, orange show June, and the black star shows 2025 Erick. Lines depict each storm's track leading up to that first time.

The eastern North Pacific can produce strong tropical cyclones (TCs) early in the season, but Erick's trajectory is unusual among category 4+ hurricanes for this time of year.

During 1971-2024, 2 TCs achieved this in May and 10 in June.

Now, in 2025, Erick is unlucky number thirteen.

This is going to be a gnarly couple of days 🥵

(h/t @burgwx.bsky.social)

Here's the same general time period and guidance from the 00z 6/16 operational ECMWF (courtesy of @burgwx.bsky.social):

We may actually have a few solid chances at severe weather in the Northeast next week if we can get a solid EML to spill over the top of this ridge.

map of the united states black with dots of protests in places both big and small

ngl this map of scheduled protests for this weekend is *wild*

“Hard drive computers” and acting as if each wfo a) has a green screen and b) needs it to issue core products

This guy doesn’t know shit about NWS

Yikes

Yesterday's 30% tornado risk from the SPC already verified (obviously) and the surveys haven't even started.

Their incredible efforts and advanced lead time undoubtedly saved lives.

I can’t believe this is even a conversation. Shutting down radiosonde sites will cost orders of magnitude more $ via poorer forecast skill. NASA’s GMAO keeps tabs here: gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/sy...

Updated outlook progression and preliminary storm reports graphics for March 14-15.

I miss when websites weren’t all the same and everything wasn’t monetized and everyone had their own little blog and search engines weren’t full of slop and the internet was fun

Yup. Rapidly changing passwords on everything else now too. This may be my sign to finally get out of that echo chamber of insanity

My Twitter account was hacked. Please don't interact with it for now 🙄

Observed ABQ sounding with a tropopause around 400mb (at 35N) in a tropopause fold! This tropopause fold is interacting with two jet streaks within the subtropical jet (seen on water vapor) while ejecting into the Plains and taking on a severe negative tilt. Just a powder keg of a synoptic setup.

Is this live already? Looks awesome.

Both today and tomorrow have the potential to be one of the most dangerous back-to-back severe weather outbreaks we've seen in years for the CONUS.

Have a way to get warnings and stay aware

Concerning

I know it's already been beaten to death on the other platform but a 5 (?!) Sigma 500mb jet nosing into anomalously steep lapse rates and deep moisture from the Gulf / Caribbean is certainly less than ideal for the Southeast.

Barring any technical delays due to weather, SPC will begin including its Peak Intensity Bin information as part of the Mesoscale Discussion text product around this weekend

This is the same info already available on the left-hand side of the MCD graphics that got enabled earlier this year!

Finally got my lazy butt over here.

Finally made the switch over from the cesspool that is Twitter (or X...whatever) after the major outage this morning. Maybe I'll actually build back my motivation to post about the weather again.