“More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country,” Trump said during his #SOTU address.

That’s true — but job growth has actually slowed since he took office: bit.ly/3OxrLC6

Are We in a Stock Bubble? This Is the Only Thread You Need High valuations are supporting equity markets and the economy. Everyone has a view on whether it’s sustainable.

The best course of action is to exercise some humility, understand all sides of the debate and realize no one has all the answers.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Wherever you fall, sitting out the debate isn't an option. This is the most important market question of our time, and risks abound for bulls and bears alike.

And they can argue that today's P/E multiples aren't directly comparable to 1929 or 1999. There are large structural differences in the economy, and a much different earnings backdrop...

They can also quote from the gospel of Peter Lynch, who said:

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined.”

For instance, the bulls can argue that momentum is a powerful force in markets, and that bull markets can go on for much longer than we imagine.

Are We in a Stock Bubble? This Is the Only Thread You Need High valuations are supporting equity markets and the economy. Everyone has a view on whether it’s sustainable.

But the simple interpretation isn't the only one, and it's important to understand all sides of this important valuation debate. That's why
@taylortyson.bsky.social and I sought to document the bearish/bullish interpretations of a series of key charts/factoids...

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Periods of of high valuations tend to augur abysmal real excess returns over the ensuing decades.

Are we in a stock market bubble?

There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇

Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red.

(link below)

Fed Day Soundtrack

There’s a playlist for everything — even Fed Day 🎶

Here’s what to listen to before tomorrow’s expected rate cut:

"Without immigration... New York would not be New York,”
@byjustinfox.bsky.social
continues.

"The city’s most troubled era in living memory, and possibly ever, came after immigrants fell to just 18.2% of the population in 1970."

Folks like Stephen Miller and Matt Walsh have figured out that NYC has a lot of immigrants, and they apparently think that’s somehow bad or un-American.

"Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

YouTube video by bathoshue Bill Frisell ~ Surfer Girl

Love this Brian Wilson tribute from Bill Frisell. Music so good it transcends time and genre.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO2C...

College Grads Are Lab Rats in the Great AI Experiment Those who can get a job are finding AI has taken their grunt work.

Do AI tools deprive young workers of development opportunities?

"The young accountant, for instance, might be saving time, but he’s also missing out on the practice of spotting something fishy in raw data," @parmy.bsky.social writes

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Biden’s Parting Gift to Retirees Is Boosting the Economy A record Social Security expansion is behind the resilience in incomes and spending.

We're witnessing a massive near-term expansion of Social Security, and I think it's having an effect on macro data.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Tariff Chaos and Fiscal Ineptitude Are a Bad Economic Recipe The European Union and Apple aren’t the only victims in this latest round of Trump’s trade war.

Waller outlined a path to lower rates in the second half (more trade policy certainty), but Trump basically decided not to take it.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The Fiscal Tantrum is about to meet the Tariff Tantrum

The administration is really committed to this vision of Americans screwing in little screws.

Citadel Lobbies for Four-Year Non-Competes in Home State of Florida Ken Griffin’s Citadel is putting its Florida lobbying muscle behind an effort to allow four-year non-compete clauses and garden leaves in its home state, tightening employers’ hold on well-paid staffe...

"Ken Griffin’s Citadel is putting its Florida lobbying muscle behind an effort to allow four-year non-compete clauses and garden leaves in its home state, tightening employers’ hold on well-paid staffers and executives considering defection."

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Great Productivity Boom Is Taking a Break US labor productivity fell last quarter for the first time since 2022. The benefits of AI still lie ahead, but we need to get through tariffs first.

"While the UK’s elimination of many NTBs will help a lot of US exporters, the primary beneficiaries will be UK residents. Now maybe Trump can get the EU to finally carry out the regulatory reform it so desperately needs." - Allison Schrager

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Trump Announces a UK Trade ‘Deal’ About Nothing The White House made no mention of how the framework met the objectives of raising revenue or reshoring manufacturing.

SEINFELDIAN DEALMAKING: "Watching President Donald Trump reveal in the Oval Office what he described as `a tremendous trade deal' with the UK reminded me of the 1990s sitcom Seinfeld, the show that was literally about nothing." @bobburgess.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The Great Productivity Boom Is Taking a Break US labor productivity fell last quarter for the first time since 2022. The benefits of AI still lie ahead, but we need to get through tariffs first.

The Great Productivity Boom isn't over ... it's taking a break though. Maybe a longish break.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The Value-Added Tax Should Be Having Its Moment A national consumption levy could address what fiscally ails the US and finally be politically palatable.

The US has a gaping fiscal deficit, and no one seems serious about addressing it.

It's time to have a conversation about a VAT for America, writes @byjustinfox.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Buffett's Astonishing Track Record in Five Charts Over six decades of investing, he left peers and the S&P 500 in the dust.

“The six-decade track record [Buffett] leaves behind is so astonishing that mere numbers on a page don’t do it justice.” @nirkaissar.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

YouTube video by Bloomberg Opinion Five lessons from Warren Buffett: The philosopher king of investing

Kaissar on Buffett youtube.com/shorts/Is74L...

Will there ever be a better investor than Warren Buffett?

Join @timobrien.bsky.social, @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social and Allison Schrager for a Live Q&A: Monday, 12:15pm EDT bloom.bg/3EO1Bqe

Warren Buffett, Investing’s Philosopher King The Oracle of Omaha plans to step down at Berkshire Hathaway. But his legacy will echo across markets for generations.

The Oracle of Omaha plans to step down at Berkshire Hathaway.

But his legacy will echo across markets for generations, says @nirkaissar.bsky.social

This Meet the Press interview is a wake-up call for investors who expect Trump to meaningfully walk back tariffs soon.

He still deeply believes in this stuff.

Here’s what the tomato teaches us about free trade 🍅

Canada Escaped a Trump Trap, But Carney's Boxed In He’ll need to keep everybody happy with higher spending to survive, and forget compromise.

“The fact that the display of Ugly Americanism provoked quite such a reaction in the famously easygoing Canadians provides a clue as to how other countries are likely to respond to rising tariffs.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...