birdflustocks

Commodity egg prices are rising again:
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eg...

According to this 2024 article from Carolyn Barber @cbarbermd.bsky.social ASPR has been mismanaged for a long time:
fortune.com/2024/06/24/u...
I recommend the referenced letter from congress and looking into CD388 in the pandemic preparedness context.
d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/05_09_24_Let...

Hospitalizations declined 50% last year and <10% of the difference is due to deaths. Looks promising!
www.cdc.gov/resp-net/das...
www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-s...
The most prominent concerns relate to 2020-2022:
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
Is there newer data to refute that?

Thanks. Do people still gain immunity? For most people the approach appears to be repeated infections while the virus evolves. I understand the immune system has long-term components. But are cases getting milder or is there a trend reversal, adjusting for already dead most vulnerable demographics?

My impression is long-term consequences of infectious diseases are generally underestimated. Personally I'm worried about loss of taste and smell, possible neurological issues and damage from repeated infections. How does Covid compare for risks other than hospitalization and death?

"These limitations were evident in period one, mainly across southeastern Mexican states because they did not mount an immune response after vaccination with seroconversion and seroprotection rates less than 10 % of their population."
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Last Stand in Bird Flu Ostrich Land The BC ostrich convoy enters the "find out" stage of FAFO and so have we all

As the accursed ostrich situation continues to get simultaneously more stupid and gravely serious, I decided to write up a very long analysis of many of the key issues. Bottom line: so long as this flock lives, it is a threat to Canada's national security. 🧵
open.substack.com/pub/rasmusse...

Los Angeles cat H5N1 deaths prompt new warning about raw pet food

Samples available for one of the cats revealed the B3.13 genotype, and genetic sequencing at the USDA lab is underway.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/a...

Thanks for posting this source! I was estimating the probability of detecting H5N1 in pigs and this helps a lot! I calculated a 1 in 20.000 chance for each asymptomatic pig with an estimated 10% positivity rate, but with the actual 31% positivity rate it's even lower.
www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_Avian...

Gold standard or appalling? HHS’s $500 million vaccine bet on inactivated viruses puzzles field Department selected universal flu vaccine work by NIH leaders without “transparency,” some scientists say

www.science.org/content/arti...

NVSL has uploaded 112 sets of #H5N1 seqs to GISAID
Largely from wild birds or Dairy Herds
Dairy Herds were B3.13 with PB2 K670R

Two Harbor Seal seqs were D1.1 w/ PB2 E627K
A/harbor seal/USA/019393-001/2025

One Red Fox seq was D1.1 w/ PB2 D701N
A/red fox/USA/019397-001/2025

Single-dose avian influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin–Matrix-M® nanoparticle vaccine induces neutralizing responses in nonhuman primates - Nature Communications The rise in highly pathogenic avian influenza cases elevates the risk of human-to-human transmission. Here, the authors develop an adjuvanted protein-based vaccine that elicits robust antibody- and ce...

Nature Communications || Single-dose avian influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin–Matrix-M® nanoparticle vaccine induces neutralizing responses in nonhuman primates

Nina Patel et al

H5N1

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

There are lots of very basic pandemic preparedness issues, but vaccines also inherently have weaknesses.

www.birdflustocks.com/media/#stock...

The phase 2b results of CD388 are important progress, the federal US public health policies are a lost cause.

www.cidara.com/news/cidara-...

Experts emphasize the risks but miss how utterly pointless this idea is.

Genetically modified chickens are being researched, there is no need whatsoever for any of this. Even success would be a meaningless, this is simply not how breeding chickens works:
www.reddit.com/r/AnimalRigh...

Masks would be important, CD388 has potential.
“It’s simply not possible, because the virus continually evolves, to have a constant stockpile—a large stockpile—of vaccines”
www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-bi...
Here is my stockpile article collection:
www.birdflustocks.com/media/#stock...

Experts emphasize the risks but miss how utterly pointless this idea is.

Genetically modified chickens are being researched, there is no need whatsoever for any of this. Even success would be a meaningless, this is simply not how breeding chickens works:
www.reddit.com/r/AnimalRigh...

Experts emphasize the risks but miss how utterly pointless this idea is.

Genetically modified chickens are being researched, there is no need whatsoever for any of this. Even success would be a meaningless, this is simply not how breeding chickens works:
www.reddit.com/r/AnimalRigh...

#H5N1 #influenza
Single doses of 450mg, 300mg and 150mg of CD388 conferred 76%, 61% and 58% protection, respectively, from symptomatic influenza over 24 weeks compared to placebo

CD388 was well-tolerated with no safety signals observed

www.cidara.com/news/cidara-...

Identifying and characterizing superspreaders of low-credibility content on Twitter The world’s digital information ecosystem continues to struggle with the spread of misinformation. Prior work has suggested that users who consistently disseminate a disproportionate amount of low-cre...

Disinformation kills people

journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

CD388 phase 2b results will be published in a few days. That would be "early enough" zanamivir, 0 hours post infection, for months as a preventative due to extended half-life of 7 weeks.

Efficacy of baloxavir marboxil against bovine H5N1 virus in mice - Nature Communications This study shows that early treatment with baloxavir marboxil is effective against the bovine H5N1 influenza virus, but delayed treatment significantly reduces its effectiveness and increases the risk...

Efficacy of baloxavir marboxil against bovine #H5N1 virus in mice

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Good study, alarmist interpretation. The mutation enables much faster replication, so it becomes dominant over time. It was already present at 4% and rose to 100%.

B3.13 with PB2 E627K and D1.1 with PB2 D701N in cows. Pig-to-pig transmission next?

Data:
bsky.app/profile/hlni...

Pig-to-pig transmission study:
"Both mammal isolates evaluated in this study contained the PB2 E627K mutation (...) transmitted to >1 contact pig."
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...

Partial mink #H5N1 D1.1 seq has PB2 E627K
A/mink/USA/010686-001-tile/2025
Closely related to bear seqs w/ PB2 E627K
A/bear/USA/008592-001/2025
A/bear/USA/008592-002/2025
A/bear/USA/008592-003/2025

B3.13 with PB2 E627K and D1.1 with PB2 D701N in cows. Pig-to-pig transmission next?

Data:
bsky.app/profile/hlni...

Pig-to-pig transmission study:
"Both mammal isolates evaluated in this study contained the PB2 E627K mutation (...) transmitted to >1 contact pig."
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...

I agree with the sentiment, but there might be a great preventative in development that is not a vaccine. CD388 phase 2b top line data will be published at the end of this month.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.cidara.com/wp-content/u...

NVSL uploaded 140 sets of #H5N1 seqs from wild birds, mammals, and Dairy Herds

Included in the dairy herd seqs were more B3.13 seqs with PB2 E627K w/ K670R

Not included was a closely related seq at Genbank
A/cattle/CA/25-010012-003-original/2025 | 3/18/25
w/PB2 E627K (from CA)

@fla-medic.bsky.social @helenbranswell.bsky.social
Someone should make this more accessible.

B3.13 with PB2 E627K and D1.1 with PB2 D701N in cows.

"Both mammal isolates evaluated in this study contained the PB2 E627K mutation (...) transmitted to >1 contact pig."
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...

On a positive note CD388 phase 2b top line data will be published next month.

Enhanced neurotropism of bovine H5N1 compared to the Vietnam H5N1 isolate in C57BL/6J mice - npj Viruses npj Viruses - Enhanced neurotropism of bovine H5N1 compared to the Vietnam H5N1 isolate in C57BL/6J mice

Enhanced neurotropism of bovine H5N1 compared to the Vietnam H5N1 isolate in C57BL/6J mice

www.nature.com/articles/s44...