@alexotway.bsky.social
Data scientist for the Labour Party. Prev TBI. Views my own.
University funding model ‘needs more than tweaks to tuition fees’.
Tony Blair Institute report lays out trade-offs between migration policy and UK higher education funding.
www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-u...
NEW on Wonkhe: Consider immigration and university funding together, the Tony Blair Institute says bit.ly/4l7nCzy
20.06.2025 05:10 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
NEW on Wonkhe: Consider immigration and university funding together, the Tony Blair Institute says bit.ly/4l7nCzy
20.06.2025 06:10 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
'Post-1992 universities that underpin local prosperity in poorer areas of the UK will be hardest hit by efforts to restrict international student numbers, a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has warned.' 1/2
20.06.2025 06:14 — 👍 11 🔁 10 💬 1 📌 0
University funding model ‘needs more than tweaks to tuition fees’.
Tony Blair Institute report lays out trade-offs between migration policy and UK higher education funding.
www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-u...
13/ And all of this has been shaped by the hard work of many TBI colleagues, Ryan Wain, @joniesmith.bsky.social, Jo Puddick, @dralanwager.bsky.social, Jess Lythgow, Sam Sharps and our fantastic comms team
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 012/ Those are some of my main readouts but yours will be different. I hope you enjoy playing with this tool as much as I've enjoyed building it with the best team, Robert Johnson, Kayla Crowley-Carbery, and Tim Rhydderch.
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
11/ Finally the Root Causes machine learning model identifies the strongest predictors of voting one way over another.
Immigration views are the strongest predictor of voting for Reform over Labour. But among 18–34-year-old voters, it's distrust in the establishment.
10/ Voters don't fit neatly into ideological boxes and sometimes combinations of views surprise. The Branches of Belief tool allows you to reveal tensions, new coalitions, and unexpected common ground.
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
9/ Not all issues are divisive. In the UK and elsewhere, people want radical healthcare reform. And more voters are cautiously optimistic about the impact of AI.
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 08/ If mainstream parties like Labour cannot fix migration, they will lose to the Insurgent Right. This doesn't mean copying the loud noises of the right, it means actual solutions.
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
7/ You can also use the Political Landscapes tool to see where parties should position to meet voters. On immigration, the message is clear. Across the countries, and in the UK, more people think immigration is a burden. But you can see the risk to Labour's existing coalition too
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
6/ You can select which variables you're interested in a build your own clusters, and draw your own lessons
bit.ly/41Sn760
5/ These groups have different levels of education, but they have similar income distributions. What they really have in common is that mainstream politics has failed to deliver for them.
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
4/ Insurgent Left voters are economically pessimistic, have little faith that hard work pays off and have moderate trust in the establishment.
Insurgent Right voters are also economically pessimistic, with much lower trust in the establishment, but do believe hard work pays.
3/ We polled 12,000 people across 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇫🇷🇩🇪🇨🇦🇦🇺 and found five new clusters of parties that cut across the traditional left-right spectrum bit.ly/41Sn760
28.03.2025 12:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
2/ Earlier this year, our Disruptive Delivery paper revealed a market failure. Western Voters want radical change to address national decline. But mainstream parties haven't delivered, leaving space for insurgents to rise.
institute.global/insights/pol...
Very excited to launch our #DisruptiveDelivery Data Explorer at the Tony Blair Institute today. Here are some of the things I think are interesting, but you should play around yourself and find your own interpretations 1/
bit.ly/4ccuNU3
Voters are demanding change but mainstream politics isn’t delivering.
Across 6 major democracies our latest research with Peter Kellner & DeltaPoll highlights the rise of outsiders but also the chance to build a new coalition.
The message: Disrupt or be disrupted
Read full report: bit.ly/3X3c9Yz
“Disrupt or be disrupted.” A huge new study of people in the UK, USA, Germany, Canada and France shows a singular vision: those invested in mainstream parties and those going to insurgent parties are united in the belief that the system is no longer working and radical change is necessary.
31.01.2025 09:46 — 👍 58 🔁 18 💬 11 📌 3
Two graphs, on ‘growth week’.
1) the challenge: a crisis of social democracy is now also gobbling up the centre right - the old mainstream have fallen from ~75% to ~50% vote share.
2) the key cause: voters no longer believe in economic progress.
New report: institute.global/insights/pol...
A remarkable stat: Heidi Alexander’s appointment as Transport Secretary means the cabinet is now 100% state-educated for the first time in history.
29.11.2024 13:52 — 👍 3940 🔁 1135 💬 110 📌 137Our net zero polling with YouGov across Europe earlier this year found that this news – that China is ‘doing its bit’ – is *precisely* the thing that will persuade the (large) group of voters who might believe climate change but do not see it as a ‘top’ priority.
institute.global/insights/cli...
Always nice to see your work picked up in another continent!
african.business/2024/11/tech...
John Prescott invented levelling up but didn’t call it levelling up because that’s an absurd name
21.11.2024 07:29 — 👍 22 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
9/ if, like me, you like playing with filters and buttons and colours and axes - you can play with our data explorer!
institute.global/insights/tec...
8/ But many African nations have latent, growing compute talent pools waiting to be unleashed:
18.11.2024 16:01 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
7/ 🔌 Energy is a dealbreaker: Nascent compute powers in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa continue to face constraints with basic enablers like grid reliability. Sub-Saharan Africa averages 87 power blackouts yearly vs. North America's 1.
18.11.2024 16:01 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
6/ 🇬🇧 Planning is strangling progress in the UK: Excessive bureaucracy has throttled data-centre growth unnecessarily. It installed fewer servers in 2023 than 2022 and is building data centres slower than its peers:
18.11.2024 15:51 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
