Adanthar

Early 2026 update:

Will add Gallego as almost a second Ossoff; both look like extremely solid and high equity options

Still very bearish on Newsom and AOC; I don’t think either have the juice

Shapiro/Beshear definitely do not have the juice

these are senator james talarico numbers

You never want to base a forecast of a midterm on a state senate seat in Texas, but oh man if those Hispanic neighborhood numbers hold up

Whether it's a Hillary Clinton staffer asking John Podesta how to make risotto or Elon Musk asking Jeffrey Epstein where he could find a party featuring child sex slaves, there's plenty of embarrassing emails on both sides.

everything is shitcoin

yeah ok he's just gonna win easily

I am not saying that this is how the bull market ends, merely that this is how every crypto bull market ended and how every other retail mania ended since 1998 or earlier

this primary is going to have the highest Takes Per Capita stat since 2016, until the Platner Mills one breaks the record right afterwards

door #1: spacex, openai, and 2-3 other corps IPO at the same time into a combined $100-200b of retail orders. retail investors then double their money by selling to ???

door #2: retail sells everything else to buy the hot stuff, sending it to hades, and then gets stuck with gigantic bags forever

personnellement, j'adore la système d'immigration qui fait effectivement la connaissance de française mandatoire, et ensuite demande que les emigres ne vivent pas au Quebec

look, i don't know if there will be history graduate students in the year 2073, but if there are, you need to know this: colonel lockjaw was not a satire of greg bovino.

one battle after another was filmed entirely before he was a public figure.

lol

the real real essay is on the total incomprehensibility of quidditch as a sport, showing off the author's lack of understanding of sports in general, before book 4 - ie the first that really badly needs an editor - decides to focus on it for way too many pages

wheeeeeeeeeeeee!
everything is memestock. nothing matters. FOMO til i die.
🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

ironically, he's probably right *now*, two? years after he went "they can't possibly raise 5 BILLION DOLLARS", only now it's 300 billion and I'm sorry but he gets zero credit for that brilliant insight

"never AI at any cost" was fruitless, increasingly visibly wrong and backed up by some horrendous business acumen. you can't be an even tenuously SV connected business reporter and go "OpenAI can't ever raise this much money". lots of people made mistakes in 2022 but he stuck with it far too long.

Your time machine takes you back to 2018. You don’t know which QB is which, but out of the five there are

1 huge bust
1 2x MVP
1 other hall of famer
1 bad journeyman
1 guy becomes a superstar and the 1st to make an SB, a decade later on his fourth team

I think exactly 0 people get this one right

and now for a palate cleanser / honestly the most inspiring piece of journalism I've seen in a while from the racism site

look for my book about the inner workings of the fascist administration whose ideas I called thought-provoking in 2024, available everywhere in 2029

the loose US equivalent to this is if Biden's approval rating was 20%, Pete Buttigieg wanted to challenge him in a primary, and then nine local Dem officials in Iowa District 7226 said nah that's bad actually

also because of this the district automatically goes R(eform)

*Miller* would never sign it, but then you get into which cabal gets to walk into the Oval Office at any given moment and nobody's monopolizing Trump 24/7.

the thing about Trump agreeing with the last person to talk to him is that if Congress were to agree to some Dem face saving *and passes a compromise bill* (obv not a lock), he's overwhelmingly likely to just sign it. he'll veto stuff out of spite, but if it doesn't impact him he doesn't care.

This is gonna be the reasonable centrist take and as a reasonable centrist I can say that it's 100% wrong.

There are a bunch of cheap concessions that Dems can hold out for (in exchange for, well, sabotaging the govt) that have like 86% support, including/not limited to "ICE can't detain citizens."

putting down three more markers:

1)in 2027, the median Dem will be running on a Nuremberg trial platform but with all the trials on the state level, to cut out the federal pardon power

2)most Dems will support an anti-pardon constitutional amendment

3)if a Dem is president, it would pass

putting down a marker on this: at some point this year Bovino is gonna get a promotion to "Southern Border Czar" or whatever which will conveniently take him to a region where he can brutalize a bunch of prisoners without cellphones. Without the rioting they're craving, he's becoming a liability.

this is not to say they will deescalate, but they have a lot of factions in the WH, and some of them are going to want Miller/Bovino out because they are wrecking everyone else's careers.

the second execution in MN this month is so stark, and the admin's initial comments so vile and removed from reality, that there is going to be a political reckoning even in MAGAville sooner rather than later. they will never admit it, of course, but they'll be looking for a fall guy.

Gotcha—let’s dig into that step by step.

1. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵, because I turned you into an amorphous lump of flesh. You’re not just immobile—you’re immortal, and you feel only anguish.

2. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺. That makes total sense—it’s a natural human impulse, and you’ve been through a lot.