Adanthar

please mr president sir don't ever nuke the filibuster and especially don't ever touch the voter ID button. democrats would HATE the voter ID button with the 2025-28 democratic coalition of *checks notes* every woman with a college degree in america

VA polling basically confirms what I was thinking, which is that Jones needs a +10 Spanberger topline to have a real shot but should get almost exactly that number

I think he wins every time at +12 and loses every time at +8, so this will be close, but have a big position based squarely on the odds

Predictions:

CA Prop 50: D+20 or whatever, don't care. might come in a bit under in an off-year race with preordained results
NY: mildly exciting but only if you've bet on Mamdani losing Staten Island
NJ: an even more boring D+7
VA: Gov +12, LtGov +8, AG...only tossup of the night

I think that's debatable; Osborn in particular outperformed by 12, and if Platner were...less this, he'd probably get close to that

there's definitely a niche out there for Normal Guy but Leftishly, it just requires that Dems start from down 58-42 instead of 70-30, which isn't inconceivable

that's true; it needs to be something closer to Osborn or Platner, minus the tats, than Manchin

but it also doesn't need to be a party-wide rebrand

we do, and will continue to, have permanent rural area Ls and therefore Senate problems, but that's not exactly the same thing as needing more votes. we need a "rural Democrat" brand that works in a half dozen states, not a complete rethought of a coalition that's going to work far better going fwd

everybody always fights the last war; one of the ways in which this is self evident is that everyone thinks Hispanic and black men are now permanently moving conservative

meanwhile, the vibes in their communities are *looks around at tear gas*, so that's probably a generational GOP L

Been a very good last several weeks for short term Polymarket bonds heading into an election, always my favorite thing to do

Pretty well positioned, I think, though only spending about half time on it

this assumes a bunch of Republican rational actors that aren't in evidence, though. the media and on the ground vibes will be one thing, the senate vibes something else entirely

We’re clearly not going to see any productive negotiations on the shutdown at least until NJ/VA elections, so that’s another 9 days. Really curious to see what the national vibes are after that once it’s clear Dems have electoral momentum just as the GOP did after November 2021.

horseshoe theory undefeated

forgetting the minor nazi whoopsie portion of this race for a moment (because this poll mostly predates it), the fact is that Mills is an ex-governor, pretty popular, and her sole problems are age and decorum. her being down 35 here is a blue tsunami warning for any Dem over 70 or pro-filibuster

I like hanging out in my corner of bsky, because the rest of it is filled with people who looked at the last several sets of Dem primaries and decided that the problem was far too much opposition.

oh no, an Old might run vs a 40 year old who looks good on paper that we never heard of 2 weeks ago?

I hope everyone has learned a valuable lesson today about the perils of vibes-based vetting of populist candidates via cliquish social media ingroup signaling

2C)There are like five other people under 80 running and even the filing deadline is a long way off;

3)Schumer got vilified on here for doing his job correctly;

4)The online left loves this building up heroes to eat them later shit (see Mamdani, 2026)

So, Platner:

1A)I think it’s highly likely nobody around him knew it was a Nazi tat; why would they / Croatia lol

1B)the reddit posts are cringe and sometimes bad but not DQing in 2025;

2A)he has an uphill road for the next few months;

2B)Dem primary voters are too enraged to love Mills

1/2

Boring law student questions like “is that a contract” and “is that an nft of a contract or an actual contract” and “what happens if somebody steals the actual contract”

this is certainly a thing that just happened that I hope they cover in law school this year

iyam, they can replace con law with it. worthless class anyway

Will Trump Do It? It Pays to Bet ‘No’ Polymarket data shows wagers against Trump taking action would have yielded returns similar to the S&P 500. And gambling that he'll actually follow through was a losing proposition.

An exclusive analysis of Polymarket data showed that wagers against Trump taking action would've yielded returns similar to the S&P 500 (via Bloomberg Opinion)

had a tiny bet (because most of it didnt fill) from the start on the shutdown lasting some long number, which I sold a few days ago

if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target

I been robbed. All my arts gone.

first they came for John Bolton, but it turned out that he was doing actual crimes so I simply handed it to them

had a couple of different conversations recently about how weird it is to see prediction markets, a thing I've been active on since 2007, go mainstream

like being a gold miner in california since 1840 and all of a sudden the entire universe is trying to sell each other shovels

that's what the 2025 polling data says, in the same way that 2009 polling data said 2010 would be a tossup

strictly self improvement related, no work (FIREd, bitches) although I do also advise a thing

polymarket also takes some time; donald trump not winning the nobel was, of course, free money, but you still needed to be aware the contract existed and traded high

anyway, the trenches are brutal

personal net worth: up on the week

people I know who are wiped: at least several, maybe more, some with ten year track records

was that trading skill? fuck no, I just had an unwillingness to be exposed to something as ridiculous as crypto without being able to monitor it daily

stay safu

I barely talk about crypto these days because I'm spending an enormous amount of time on a personal project and basically only do that + Polymarket since May

so with that in mind, the wipeout yesterday is another reminder that you -cannot- have your net worth in a casino, no matter how enticing

This man is being Gorilla Channel'd with a rotating selection of AI slop riot porn by several known white supremacists who are secretly running the government.

LLMs asked to use rude voice have a *significantly* higher accuracy rate (84% vs 80%). the reason why is obvious if you think about it:

they're trained on the posts of my people, snarky millennial edgelords who came of age during the Posting Wars

The year is 2025. There are three social networks remaining. They are run by Dweeb Lowtax, Tweaker Lowtax, and Girlboss Lowtax. You have to pick at least one.