Meredith Lilly

My latest for CD Howe on Canada's tricky path to the USMCA review, and negotiating the tariff relief needed from the US to journey forward. cdhowe.org/publication/...

Link to my full discussion on trade diversification on TVO this week.

I’ll be on TVO’s TheAgenda tonight talking about trade diversification, amidst Canada-US trade tensions. Tune in!

How Trump is pouring gas on the fire of de-globalization Down to Business · Episode

My interview w FP's Gabe Friedman on changing Cda-US trade relations under Trump 2.0:
- Tariffs as sanctions & the power of threats;
- Canada’s unhelpful public debates on retaliation & what Mex is doing right;
- Cdn options as US leadership & coop decline.
open.spotify.com/episode/0N0K...

Here’s our 2022 paper published prior to the CBAM roll-out, predicting it would be an administrative nightmare (of questionable benefit). New potential Trump reciprocal tariffs have a different focus, but many lessons will be the same. www.fcf-ctf.ca/common/Uploa...

EU considers exempting most companies from carbon border levy The European Commission may consider scaling back its carbon border levy to just 20% of the companies covered by the scheme, because they account for nearly all of the emissions involved, the EU's head of climate policy said on Thursday.

The closest recent approximation of a country-by-country, product-specific tariff is the EU's CBAM.

In a shocking development, the EU learned CBAM is administratively complex and onerous, and offers limited benefits. So, now they plan to ditch 80% of it.. www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

While reciprocity is central to Cdn FTAs & trade with other developed countries, we have unilaterally eliminated tariffs on most imports from least developed countries. Policy rationale: it is good for those countries & Canadian consumers. canada.ca/en/departmen...

Something I wrote on reciprocity in trade negotiations, particularly between partners of very different size and influence. Though this excerpt is from a chapter on temporary entry provisions, the reciprocity point is broader. Full chapter here: amazon.ca/Canadas-Flui...

I enjoyed the conversation last week with economist colleagues @trevortombe.bsky.social, Stephen Tapp, and Dan Ciuriak on Canadian policy toward Trump, tariffs and trade moving forward. Thanks CABE for organizing.

Watch it here: cabe.ca/webinar/cabe...

My comments in today's Toronto Star on Canada's trade diversification challenges. And for the trade nerds, gravity even got a shoutout in a major Cdn daily. www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Canada’s digital services tax and online regulation bills are likely Trump trade targets Donald Trump’s executive order directs the U.S. treasury secretary to investigate countries with tax rules that are ‘extraterritorial or disproportionately affect American companies’

My interview on the future trade implications of Canada's Digital Services Tax and Online Streaming Act during Trump 2.0: www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...

Fate of $100 billion in Canadian EV projects in doubt as political landscape shifts Trudeau steps down, Trump steps in, leaving some to wonder whether the burgeoning battery and EV supply chain will survive. Read more here

My interview with Gabe Friedman of the FP on Canada's EV supply chain in light of Trump 2.0 and linked IRA investments: financialpost.com/commodities/...

US withdrawal from OECD Global Tax Deal, and scrutiny of foreign taxes targeting or applying extraterritorial tax commitments on Americans. For Canada: This puts Canada’s Digital Services Tax in the crosshairs, plus the Online Streaming Act 3/. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

USMCA implementation and review, plus unfair trade practices and trade imbalances. Lots in there, good and bad. For Canada: dairy TRQs; digital taxes; shared auto supply chain; Chinese investment in CUSMA countries; Buy American; softwood lumber 2/.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Trump's Tumultuous Tariff Threat with Meredith Lilly and Daniel Schwanen – C.D. Howe Institute Donald Trump isn’t backing down from his threat to hit Canada with 25 percent tariffs. But Canada is fighting back. Michael Hainsworth speaks with Meredith Lilly of Carleton University and Daniel Schw...

My conversation with CD Howe Inst on Trump, tariffs and the threat to Canada:
www.cdhowe.org/publication/...

Navigating a Changing World - University of Toronto Press

Chapter link here: utppublishing.com/doi/book/10..... If your institution doesn’t have access, DM me for a copy. (4/4)

Trudeau govt approach was all carrots, no sticks (2016 onward). This imperiled the program and Canada’s longstanding consensus on immigration in the process. (3/4)

Ironically, it is Canada’s position that has changed since my 2021 chapter, after Trudeau govt failed to correctly balance the carrots and sticks of Harper-era reforms (2013-15)…(2/4).

Many seem surprised that Trump supports the H-1B program. But his openness to the program has been consistent over time. I wrote about it in this 2021 chapter comparing the US H-1B and Canadian TFW program reforms (1/4):

Trade, Tariffs, and the Future of U.S.-Canada Relations | 35 West | CSIS Podcasts In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Dr. Meredith Lilly, Professor and Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy at Carleton University and former Foreign Affairs and I...

My new podcast with Chris Hernandez-Roy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies @csis.org on addressing Canada-US trade relations under Trump 2.0.

I also touch on the role of Cdn political uncertainty on the signals being sent/received in US & Mex. www.csis.org/podcasts/35-...

Great and informative piece on provincial differences to US tariff exposure by @trevortombe.bsky.social .

I look forward to reading this Sarah. Congratulations.

After some recent remarks from Canadian officials on Mexico as a “back door” for Chinese products to enter the Canadian/US markets, I had the opportunity to provide my two cents over at the IELP blog. (Thanks @simonlester.com!)

ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2024/12/gues...

Link to paywalled article. DM for a copy if unable to access. www.emerald.com/insight/cont...

But rich countries do not use FTAs to seek to bind themselves to greater improvements or higher obligations than exist domestically. 3/3

Similarly, our research on 25 years of Canada’s labour provisions in FTAs clearly demonstrates that rich countries use labour chapters to compel and bind poor countries to raise their standards to equivalent levels.2/3

Fury as US argues against climate obligations at top UN court US says current climate rules are satisfactory, prompting condemnation from activists and vulnerable countries

Not sure why the US’s efforts to limit exposure to ICJ judgement on climate obligations is surprising. Pretty standard for US to seek to limit multilateral institutions from infringing sovereignty and exposing US to higher obligations than exist domestically. 1/3 www.theguardian.com/environment/...

‘Canadians can’t panic’: Meredith Lilly on Canada-U.S. trade relations and how the Online Streaming Act is making things worse

ICYMI last week. Reposting my conversation with Sean Speer at TheHub on Trump, tariffs and the trade consequences of Canada's Online Streaming Act for USMCA. thehub.ca/podcasts/can...

Hub Dialogues: Meredith Lilly on Canada-U.S. trade relations and how the Online Streaming Act is making things worse Hub Podcasts · Episode

Check out my latest conversation on Trump, tariffs and the consequences of Online Streaming Act for Canada-US relations moving forward. Podcast with Sean Speer at The Hub. open.spotify.com/episode/4wYJ...

If you are into podcasts, here's one from Trade Knowledge Matters with me and @meredithlilly.bsky.social as guests, in which we talk about: statutes Trump might use for tariffs; the USMCA 2026 review; digital trade conflict; US-China trade relations; and the WTO.