William F. Lamb

I think one line of evidence for this is the scale of backlash that fossil interests have mobilised against existing and working climate policies - and what happens to renewables, counterfactual emissions, etc. when they get shutdown!

a man is talking about being entirely successful . Alt: a robot is is talking about not being entirely successful .

It's funny to have to make this case but tbqh we don't make it enough: human efforts to counter fossil fuel use have had *at least some* effect on total greenhouse gas emissions since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, and there's some evidence to back up this position

A lil thread 🧵

The Debunking Handbook 2020: Downloads and Translations In November 2011, we published The Debunking Handbook. As the update notice on that page already shows, more research has come in since then and the time had finally come for a complete overhaul of th...

@johnfocook.bsky.social is the man to ask!

Especially: skepticalscience.com/debunking-ha...

Fixed, thanks. I guess firefox doesn't like svgs :(

Might be best to just exclude it from this figure next time and save writing A LOT of explanatory/hedging text that then gets lost!

Illustration of a dart missing the bullseye on a colorful target, symbolizing global temperature goals at risk due to inaction.

New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

thanks - very useful!

Expertise from the Potsdam Institute.

8 Lead Authors for @IPCC_CH #AR7:

nico bauer
Niklas Boers
Franziska Piontek
Iulii Didovets
Barbora Sedova
@wflamb.bsky.social
Jan Minx
Elmar Kriegler

First Lead Author meeting Dec 2025, report out 2028/29.

www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

bar chart showing deaths associate with extreme heat with and without climate change in 12 European cities

About 1500 of the approx. 2300 people that will have lost their lives across 12 European cities last week would still live, if it wasn't for our burning of oil, coal and gas. If we care about the right to life, we need to stop burning fossil fuels. www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...

Out today: Freedom for Capital not People: The Mont Pèlerin Society and the Origins of the Neoliberal Monetary Order @versobooks.bsky.social

Höhepunkt der CO2-Emissionen noch nicht erreicht Während Delegierte aus aller Welt in Bonn die nächste Klimakonferenz vorbereiten, offenbart ein neuer Bericht die fragile Lage des Weltklimas. Die Forderungen nach einem Umsteuern werden immer lauter....

Höhepunkt der Emissionen noch nicht erreicht - Tagesschau Online berichtet über Report „Indikatoren des globalen Klimawandels“. Es werde immer schwieriger, die 1,5 Grad noch zu halten, je länger Emissionen nicht reduziert würden, so PIK Forscher @wflamb.bsky.social
www.tagesschau.de/wissen/klima...

😆oops

And Thailand

Some impressively complete data from Nepal in the latest version

Just did a small update of Tidy GHG Inventories: lambwf.github.io/Tidy-GHG-Inv...

81 countries have now submitted inventory data with their Biennial Transparency Reports. Quite a few still haven't (its 6 months past the deadline btw).

Having said that, including LULUCF in total emissions only changes the recent trend in a few isolated cases (top left, bottom right).

But we can probably expect to see more European countries enter the "slower reductions" zone as natural disturbances cut into the land sink.

A dot plot comparing the change in national GHG emissions over the past 5 years with (x axis) and without (y axis) the LULUCF sector

The land use change (LULUCF) sector is pretty confusing, since it can be a source of emissions (deforestation, disturbances) as well as a source of removals (regrowth, management).

Including LULUCF can speed up, slow down, or change the overall dynamic of economy-wide emissions.

Quite possibly the biggest climate story of the year (especially when we look back on this in a few years' time)

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand...

Will Lamb @wflamb.bsky.social has pulled the troops together & submitted an article to explain why different datasets can give different estimates of GHG emissions.

My favourite: differences in accounting for fire emissions.

Article in review, please comment!

essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

Differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions estimates explained Abstract. We examine differences in global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates and highlight the important role of varying system boundaries and conceptual approaches in driving thes...

New preprint: differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions explained essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

Greenhouse gas emissions are still mostly from fossil fuels by the way!!

lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...

The EU has released its latest GHG emission inventory, with data up to 2023.

The good news, GHG emissions continue a downward trend, currently 37% below 1990 levels.

The bad news, a significant downward revision of land-use removals (LULUCF).

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I tried

Trump’s EPA Plans to Stop Collecting Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data From Most Polluters Climate experts expressed shock and dismay at the move. “It would be a bit like unplugging the equipment that monitors the vital signs of a patient that is critically ill,” one said.

So the US was supposed to report its greenhouse gas emissions to the UNFCCC yesterday.

For the first time since 1997, it didn't.

This follows last week's revelation that Trump's EPA is stopping collection of GHG emission from 40 of 41 sectors

www.propublica.org/article/trum...

I find these quite useful for explaining trends, but it seems to me there is a lot going on behind the scenes in counterfactual estimates. I'd like to see more literature on it, in case anyone has some leads...

And here one on energy demand from @ember-energy.org

ember-energy.org/latest-insig...

Interesting that people are starting to incorporate these counterfactuals in their emissions reporting. Here's a similar take from the @iea.org

www.iea.org/reports/glob...

Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2024 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Global CO2 emissions in 2024 increased 0.9% on the previous year, totalling 36.3 Gt CO2. These ongoing emissions further deplete remaining carbon budgets, with some estimates suggesting the 1.5 °C bud...

According to Carbon Monitor, emissions could have been 9.8GtCO2 higher in 2024... if renewable energy supply had been met with expected fossil sources instead

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Lots more figures here: lambwf.github.io/Tidy-GHG-Inv...