Lander Van Tricht

Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century Have you ever wondered how many glaciers will still exist in the future? Or how many glaciers we might lose each year in the coming decades? In our new study ( Van Tricht et al., 2025 ), we shift the ...

For our new post, @landervt.bsky.social wrote about simulating the future of glaciers and predicting when each will disappear 🏔️

blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr...

Tien Shan glaciers are projected to lose around one-third of their 2020 ice mass before 2040, and 69-93% by 2100, depending on the climate scenario. By the late 21stC, the probability of unmet water demand in summer will increase substantially agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

There are 211,500 glaciers on this planet and we'll lose most of them this century because of human emissions! 🧊🔥

The peak of glacier extinction will occur 2040 to 2055! 📈

But each fraction of degree matters! 🌡️

Some of them can be saved! 🙏

@landervt.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

"In regions dominated by small and rapidly responding glaciers, such as [...] the European Alps, over 50% of the glaciers are projected to disappear within the next two decades." New @natclimate.nature.com study by @landervt.bsky.social @harryzeko.bsky.social @hydr-vub.bsky.social

Rising temperatures could to lead to the loss of thousands of glaciers per year, with up to ~4,000 vanishing annually under high emissions.

1.5°C could halve this loss 🧵

@landervt.bsky.social @harryzeko.bsky.social @matthias-huss.bsky.social @davidrounce.bsky.social @lilianschuster.bsky.social

🚨 New paper alert! ❄️

How many glaciers will exist by 2100 at +1.5 °C vs +4 °C warming? Our new study led by @landervt.bsky.social , projects the extinction year of ~200,000 glaciers worldwide. 🌍🧊

Can you imagine the Alps with only 20 glaciers remaining?

🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🧊 A glimpse into a collapsing glacier 🧊

On the #Morteratsch #Glacier, we found a large collapsed #icecave just 100 m from the front, a sign of ongoing disintegration. The front cave connects to the collapse zone, letting us document it from above, the sides, and inside. #Cryosphere #ClimateChange

In 4 years, the front of the #Morteratsch Glacier retreated sharply due to a very negative mass balance, collapsing ice caves, and a relatively flat bedrock. It now terminates in a ~30 m-high ice cliff. Notice also the central surface collapse in 2025 (ice cave collapse).
#climatechange #glaciers

🧊 100 years of change on the #Morteratsch & #Pers glaciers

Once deeply crevassed and connected, now separated and thinning fast. Even high in the accumulation zones, ice gives way to rock. 🏔️

#Glaciers #ClimateChange #Switzerland

⚠️ Deze grotten zijn adembenemend, maar ook gevaarlijk. De wanden staan onder spanning, lamella collapses (instortende ijslagen) kunnen zonder waarschuwing gebeuren.

💙 Hun blauwe gloed blijft fascinerend: het dichte ijs filtert zonlicht en laat enkel blauw licht weerkaatsen.

🌡️ Door warmere zomers smelt het oppervlak dieper in. Dat water stroomt via spleten naar beneden en graaft tunnels onder het ijs. Die worden met de tijd groter en zichtbaar aan het gletsjerfront, indrukwekkende “gletsjerportalen” die tonen hoe het ijs van binnenuit afsterft.

IJsgrotten: de plek om gletsjers van binnenuit te bestuderen, maar ook een teken van een stervende gletsjer. ❄️

Tijdens veldwerk op de #Morteratsch en #Pers gletsjer ontdekten we meerdere ijsgrotten: natuurlijke tunnels gevormd door smeltwater dat het ijs van binnenuit uitholt.

📸👇

Terug van veldwerk op de #Morteratsch & #Pers gletsjer, aan de voet van de #PizBernina. Sinds 2017 meten we hier jaarlijks de massabalans met #drones. 2025: 4e slechtste jaar ooit in 🇨🇭.❄️ #gletsjer

Het teken van een “stervende #gletsjer”, maar prachtig om te bezoeken en de binnenkant van het ijs te bewonderen. #VadretPers

Puur #winter in de #Alpen! De sneeuwgrens is lokaal gezakt tot 1800 m. Volgende week veel zon (Goldener Oktober). Dat wordt genieten :)

Excited to be back on the #Morteratsch #glacier complex for our annual fieldwork. Together with colleagues from the Geography department, the coming week we will measure how the glacier is changing. Stay tuned for some updates!
@vubrussel.bsky.social #GLAMOS

🌍 Hoe nemen we afscheid van #gletsjers? ❄️ Tijdens #IMC2025 nam ik deel aan de paneldiscussie “The Value of Glaciers”, in het kader van het International Year of Glacier Preservation. We spraken niet alleen over massaverlies, maar ook over de maatschappelijke en psychologische betekenis van gletsjers

From early next week, however, a marked cooling is expected, with snowfall from around 3,800 m. This could (largely) bring the melt season to a halt.

This is driven by persistently high temperatures and a lack of snowfall in the Central Tien Shan. Satellite imagery confirms it: on many glaciers, there is no accumulation area left at all.

Unprecedented mass loss on the Tien Shan glaciers this year – will the Bordu Glacier drop below -2.5 m w.e.? Our mass balance model is still showing an exceptionally high rate of loss for this time of year.

🎉 Congrats to our #VAW colleague & postdoc @landervt.bsky.social, on making
HUMO’s 30 under 30 list alongside Remco Evenepoel & Jade Mintjens! 🌍❄️ A well-deserved honor for his scientific achievements. #30under30 #ScienceCommunication #glaciology #HUMO

Modeling the Impact of Mining Activities on the Dynamics and Evolution of a Kyrgyz Glacier The Davydov Glacier has been reduced by 160 million m3 and shortened by 2 km due to ice excavation for the Kumtor Gold Mine operations Davydov Glacier may briefly advance if mining stops, but cli...

The 𝗗𝗮𝘃𝘆𝗱𝗼𝘃 𝗚𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗿 is more than ice, it’s a case study of how human activity + climate shape our future.

Curious? Dive into our full study agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Or reach out, happy to discuss!

What we studied: With our 3D glacier model, we tested:
🔹 Past & present impact of mining
🔹 Future retreat if mining stops
🔹 How long until mine shafts flood without pumping
🔹 Hypothetical regrowth if we returned to 1850 climate

Human vs climate: The 𝗗𝗮𝘃𝘆𝗱𝗼𝘃 𝗚𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗿 shows how 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, alongside 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲, can drive a direct and large-scale loss of ice. They removed 160 million m3 of ice and shorted the glacier by 2 km.

The unusual story: 𝗗𝗮𝘃𝘆𝗱𝗼𝘃 𝗚𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗿 lies in the 𝗔𝗸-𝗦𝗵𝘆𝗿𝗮𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗳, rich in gold. After Soviet explorations, large-scale mining began in the 1990s. To reach the ore, the glacier itself was cut back. Mining now accounts for ~𝟮𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗞𝘆𝗿𝗴𝘆𝘇 𝗚𝗗𝗣.

Modeling the Impact of Mining Activities on the Dynamics and Evolution of a Kyrgyz Glacier The Davydov Glacier has been reduced by 160 million m3 and shortened by 2 km due to ice excavation for the Kumtor Gold Mine operations Davydov Glacier may briefly advance if mining stops, but cli...

📢 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿! ❄️🇰🇬
We modeled the #𝗗𝗮𝘃𝘆𝗱𝗼𝘃 𝗚𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗿 (1850–2100) in #Kyrgyzstan.
Not just another glacier (>200,000 exist worldwide) — this one is special.
👉 Why? Stay tuned.
👉 Full paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

No, we set it every year at 1 October to zero to define the balance year of the glacier and see how much ice was lost in 1 year

🚨 Update from #Kyrgyzstan. Our mass balance model shows record glacier mass loss this year (and the melt season isn’t over yet). Causes: little snow 🌨️, high temperatures 🌡️, hardly any summer snowfall ❄️. Our fieldwork confirmed: even at the summit of some glaciers (#Grigoriev), no snow remained.

Exceptionally warm and dry conditions have pushed Bordu Glacier #Kyrgyzstan to its lowest mean specific mass balance for this time of year since monitoring began. Typically, still in its accumulation season, the glacier has already started losing mass since mid-April, an very early onset of melt.

"We gaan wellicht rampjaar tegemoet": afgelopen winter viel pak minder sneeuw op gletsjers in Zwitserland | VRT NWS: nieuws De voorbije winter is 13 procent minder sneeuw gevallen op de gletsjers in Zwitserland dan het gemiddelde van de winters van 2010 tot 2020. Daardoor is de verse witte vacht dunner en zal het smeltproc...

Afgelopen winter was droog, zonnig en zacht in de #Alpen. Het resultaat is minder sneeuw op de gletsjers dan normaal, en dus ook minder bescherming voor aankomende zomer. Wellicht dus opnieuw een slecht jaar voor het ijs in de Alpen. Interview voor VRT NWS via www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/20...