Klaus Prettner

The Debate over Falling Fertility A decline in global population later this century may threaten human progress, or it may lead to better lives

First order of magnitude given low median investment on health, education, infrastructure, etc it doesn't seem like population is a global constraint.

Of course, Ethnocentric limits on migration *do* conjure local problems, but those have direct solutions. 1/

@klausprettner.bsky.social et al

WU (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien)

INEQ is now on Bluesky! ✨
Curious about research on inequality? So are we! 📈
We’re INEQ, based at @wuvienna.bsky.social. Follow us for research, publications and events on inequality.
For more, visit our homepage ⬇️ ineq.at

Machines don’t rebel, they redistribute.
Minniti, @klausprettner.bsky.social‬ & @franceventurini.bsky.social show in EER that as #AI grows across #Europe, labour’s share of #income declines, especially among the educated.
This is a precise and profit-minded revolution.
doi.org/10.1016/j.eu...

FT: Amerikanische Studenten wechseln nach Großbritannien, da Trump US-Universitäten angreift

Die Nachfrage nach britischen Studiengängen steigt nach dem Angriff des US-Präsidenten auf die Ivy-League-Institutionen.
www.ft.com/content/ebb2...

Lecture Series by Pietro Peretto on the Schumpeterian Growth Model - YouTube This playlist contains all videos of the lecture by Pietro Peretto on the Schumpeterian Growth Model

Happy to share an online PhD-level lecture on Schumpeterian #economic #growth models by @Pietro Peretto. A huge thanks to Pietro for this great lecture. I hope many students will take the opportunity to benefit from his insights.

www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

We show how the deployment of #AI affects the #wages of low-skill workers and high-skill workers. According to the results, AI may reduce wage #inequality.

Many thanks to the editor Samuel Vigne and the anonymous referee for many helpful suggestions that helped to improve the paper.

Artificial intelligence and the skill premium How will ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested constant elas…

Very happy to share our paper on #AI and the Skill Premium (joint work with David E Bloom, Jamel Saadaoui, and Mario Veruete), which just came out in Finance Research Letters:

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

"Economists across a broad ideological spectrum argue that investments in scientific research — especially the kind of fundamental, early-stage research that is too risky to attract private investors — are among the most efficient uses of taxpayer dollars."

Intermediate Macroeconomics - YouTube This playlist contains videos on intermediate macroeconomics. These videos cover macroeconomic dynamics in the short run, in the medium run, and in the long ...

A few years ago, I started recording my #Macroeconomics #lectures focusing mainly on #Economic #Growth. Recently completed playlists are

- Intermediate Macroeconomics:

tinyurl.com/3e5v5jzh

- Advanced Macroeconomics:

tinyurl.com/37akaxxr

Please feel free to use, share, and comment.

Opinion | Musk Said No One Has Died Since Aid Was Cut. That Isn’t True. (Gift Article) A journey through the front lines of global poverty shows that when the world’s richest men slash aid for the world’s poorest children, the result is sickness, starvation and death.

"We can heal the sick and save children’s lives, all inexpensively... We properly honor a firefighter who saves a single child, but three cheers for us as taxpayers for rescuing millions of children around the world from AIDS, starvation and disease.

That is, until January."

-- Nick Kristof

Zelensky is a wartime leader watching his people suffer and die under Russian attacks every day. To be lectured and lied to by Trump and Vance, as they defend the war criminal dictator committing these atrocities, is unimaginable agony. An everlasting shame for America.

I will never forget the photo of Zelenskyy’s face after he saw Russia’s war crimes in Bucha in 2022. He seemed to age years in an afternoon. Watching him constantly cross the world asking for aid that should have been thrown at him is one of the deepest shames of our age.

Medical Innovation, Longevity, and Income Growth: Historical Evidence of Nonlinear Effects in Advanced Economies @klausprettner.bsky.social @Antonio Minniti @Michael Kuhn @urbinoeconomics.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Whenever you hear someone sneer about scientific research that seems useless to them — “they’re studying the spit of lizards?!” — remind them that’s exactly how we got Ozempic.

globalnews.ca/news/9793403...

17 THOUGHTS ON THE DEEPSEEK SELLOFF

In today's newsletter, I tried my hand at writing about "what it all means"

Sub to the newsletter here:

www.bloomberg.com/account/news...

Learning by doing in the global electric vehicle battery sector is estimated at 7.5 percent and accounted for 35.5 percent of battery cost reductions from 2013–2020, from Panle Jia Barwick, Hyuk-Soo Kwon, Shanjun Li, and Nahim B. Zahur https://www.nber.org/papers/w33378

Der US-Arbeitsmarkt seit 1880.

Our Daily Data Insight today — the world has passed “peak child.”

ÖVP-Politiker:innen in den vergangenen Monaten über einen Kanzler Herbert Kickl (FPÖ) und eine Koalition der ÖVP mit der "Kickl-FPÖ".

Ein wohl unvollständiger 🧵

Winners-take-More: Firm-level Evidence on the State of Competition in Austria

@wifo.bsky.social Austrian microdata show that average markups have increased in many non-tradable services, with a self-reinforcing dynamic strengthening firms already at the top of the distribution.
Find out more in our WIFO Research Brief: www.wifo.ac.at/publication/...

‘We are getting fed up’: EU lawmakers snap at TikTok over Romanian election TikTok executives fail to ease concerns of EU politicians that it skewed the Romanian vote.

An attempt by the popular video-sharing app TikTok to assuage EU lawmakers' concerns backfired yesterday, as company executives faced hostile politicians questioning its role in ultranationalist Călin Georgescu's win in the recent first-round of Romania's presidential election.

"This results in eurozone growth of 0.8% for 2025, notably below the 1.2% consensus. We look for the weakest growth in Germany (0.3%), followed by Italy (0.6%) and France (0.7%), with Spain again outperforming notably (2%)." - Goldman Sachs

Maps of the globe with histograms showing where populations are distributed. One map shows results by latitude and the other shows results by longitude. People are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and in Asia. The data is from 2000. In the 21st century, Africa's population will continue to increase greatly.

Histograms of the world's population
by Bill Rankin

Data is from 2000. In the 21st century, Africa's population will continue to increase greatly.

Economist: "Excited to share a new working paper about this event that just happened a week ago!"

Also economist: "Excited to see this paper finally published after 5 kids, 3 moves, 2 tenures, and 25 years later."

How We Got the Lithium-Ion Battery It took decades of research, performed around the world, before a practical lithium-ion battery was possible.

This is great on battery innovation

www.construction-physics.com/p/how-we-got...

Few people even know about this; when people are asked in surveys how child mortality has changed the majority says it has stagnated or increased.

If you consider that many don't know about humanity's biggest achievement, then it's not surprising that many are so pessimistic about our future.

We live in amazing times.

The link between changing news use and trust: longitudinal analysis of 46 countries Abstract . Changing levels of public trust in the news are of deep concern to both researchers and practitioners. We use data from 2015 to 2023 in 46 count

New article in Journal of Communication looking at changes to trust in news across 46 countries in the last 10 years.

Trust in news declined in just over half of countries.

It decreased more in countries where TV news use has declined, and/or where social media news use has grown.

A thread:

A graph comparing Spanish and German gdp, which diverge in 2008 but reconverge between 2017-2024

Here’s a crazy fact for you: Spain and Germany have now seen basically the exact same amount of economic growth post-2008. Would have been unthinkable to people during most of the 2010s. Spain has seen ~10 percentage points more cumulative growth since 2017.

The Business-School Scandal That Just Keeps Getting Bigger The rot runs deeper than almost anyone has guessed.

the fallout from the Francesca Gino research misconduct scandal isn't over. @engber.bsky.social writes about how an effort by some of her colleagues to self-audit their work with her ended up raising even more questions — for them personally and their whole field www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...