Ken Opalo

How Ethiopia avoided colonization in the late 19th century but then lagged behind in the 20th century Lessons in stateness, (failed) modernization, and economic (under)development

From the archives as Ethiopia marks the 130th anniversary of the victory at Adwa.

open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

You are spot on.

Is Conflict in the Horn of Africa Unavoidable? Ideas matter. And it's high time key players in the Horn (politicians, academics, journalists, analysts, and military strategists) chose to escape the pro-war shackles of geography and history.

Governments in the Horn must be careful not to play host to conflicts arising from rivalries on the other side of the Red Sea.

open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

How African policymakers should prepare for the coming commodity boom Projections point to elevated commodity prices in important sectors. Here's how African policymakers can avoid mistakes of the past.

What lessons should African countries learn from the last commodity boom? And how should they prepare for the next one?

open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

Appreciating @kopalo.bsky.social's recent post:
www.africanistperspective.com/p/the-intern...
& thinking his final suggestion on local knowledge production ('let 1000 think tanks bloom') resonates with our discussion on @rvinews.bsky.social 'Beyond research' podcast: riftvalley.net/multimedia_m...

Book Review (1/26): Mahmood Mamdani’s Slow Poison A journey through Uganda’s stunted political development

Book Review: Mahmood Mamdani’s Slow Poison: Idi Amin, Yoweri Museveni

open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

We just posted some (re)thinking about this, wrt Sudan and South Sudan. riftvalley.net/publication/...

The international development community isn’t adapting fast enough to official aid cuts. That’s a big problem. On the urgent need for a pivot to spending more time trying to supporting specific countries interested in boosting their state capacity; and catalyzing commercial revolutions in low-income countries.

The international development community isn’t adapting fast enough to official aid cuts. That’s a big problem.
open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

The international development community isn’t adapting fast enough to official aid cuts. That’s a big problem. On the urgent need for a pivot to spending more time trying to supporting specific countries interested in boosting their state capacity; and catalyzing commercial revolutions in low-income countries.

The international development community isn’t adapting fast enough to official aid cuts. That’s a big problem: www.africanistperspective.com/p/the-intern...

And to Mane for showing exceptional leadership.

Congratulations Senegal 🇸🇳!!!

#AFCON2025

The Museveni Succession On how one of Africa’s storied leaders squandered his legacy and will likely plunge his nation into constitutional chaos when he leaves office.

The Museveni Succession: www.africanistperspective.com/p/the-museve...

U.S. Prosecutors Are Investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell The criminal probe looks at Powell’s testimony on building renovations. Powell said it was part of Trump’s campaign to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates.

If only the United States of America had Strong Western Institutions.

U.S. prosecutors are investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his testimony last summer about the central bank’s building renovation project.

www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Africa in 2026 The 11 trends/factors that will shape African affairs in 2026

Africa in 2026: figuring out how to grow during hard tines >> open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

International recognition for Somaliland should be conditioned on concrete economic and political reforms On Somaliland’s historical political economy, and how best outsiders can help Somalilanders take charge of their destiny in the quest for continued economic and political development.

3) Why recognition might not do ordinary Somalilanders much good: www.africanistperspective.com/p/internatio...

Ethiopia needs a reliable seaport and a navy In order to secure its economic future, Eastern Africa's wobbly giant must overcome the landlockedness penalty.

Three things to read about Ethiopia and Somaliland:

1) Ethiopia needs access to the sea: www.africanistperspective.com/p/ethiopia-n...

2) The geopolitics of recognizing Somaliland: www.africanistperspective.com/p/recognizin...

International recognition for Somaliland should be conditioned on concrete economic and political reforms On Somaliland’s historical political economy, and how best outsiders can help Somalilanders take charge of their destiny in the quest for continued economic and political development.

On why I nternational recognition for Somaliland should be conditioned on concrete economic and political reforms: www.africanistperspective.com/p/internatio...

Recognizing Somaliland Ethiopia is on course to break a taboo on African territorial sovereignty; and what it means for the geopolitics of the Horn and wider Red Sea region

Recognizing Somaliland: www.africanistperspective.com/p/recognizin...

2025: Year in Review Political and economic divergence on the Continent continues apace

Africa in 2025: A Review: open.substack.com/pub/kenopalo...

On #Nigeria:

You never want to play host to other people’s wars. And you never want to internationalize your domestic security problems.

Getting foreign assistance is fine. But you must always launder and domesticate it. You must always retain the initiative.

Ken says of Emancipation, it's his "best read of the year by far". Not too late to give as a gift this holiday season to anyone who wants to understand Africa's place in world history in the 20th century better.

Book Review (12/25): The Second Emancipation Explorations in African leadership

Book Review:

The Second Emancipation: Nkrumah, Pan-Africanism, and Global Blackness at High Tide, by @hofrench.bsky.social >> www.africanistperspective.com/p/book-revie...

Firms or Families? Another installment in the Mission 300 electrification debate On the politics and logics of policy tradeoffs

www.africanistperspective.com/p/firms-or-f...

The 6 big thinkers reshaping foreign aid, masculinity, and development Meet the Future Perfect 25: The Thinkers

I’m honored to have been selected for @voxdotcom’s #FuturePerfect25, a list of innovators, thinkers,
 disruptors, and people on the ground who are advancing solutions for today’s (and
 tomorrow’s) most pressing challenges in global health and development: www.vox.com/future-perfe...

Transformative national development (as opposed to nano-developmentalist nibbling at the margins) is the only way out of this. The sooner everyone is on the same page the better.

COP30: policymaking needs a developmentalist makeover Poverty is not a viable climate strategy - China shows that climate policies can be developmentalist, argues Ken Opalo.

#COP30: Climate policymaking needs a developmentalist makeover via ⁦‪@AfricanBizMag‬⁩

african.business/2025/11/ener...

Opinion | Africa Is Rising. The World Shouldn’t Turn Its Back.

A podcast conversation with Lydia Polgreen @polgreen.bsky.social of the Times about my new book, The Second Emancipation, and about Africa's place in the world of today and tomorrow. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/o...

I thought the lesson is that Dems should adopt religious communism (not the heathen kind that failed elsewhere)…

Hongera!

(I’m sure there are those who disagreed with Mamdani on policy, but given the tone and tenor of much of the campaign, it’s nice to see that New Yorkers rejected deranged Islamophobia).

Guys.

Everyone knows that all your parents’ cousins are your aunties and uncles.