Risk of Ruin Podcast

A dark blue mug with an American flag reads “AMERICA 1776 – 2026”

Fairly sure it’s unintentional, but the end date on this mug being sold by the Smithsonian does make it sound a little like they’re saying America dies in 2026…

Am still capable of being pleasantly shocked by a sudden view in London

Thank you!

Thank you. Very much appreciated

Trial and Error Thomas started as a losing bettor, and then learned to win. Eventually he won so much that a regulated sportsbooks stole several million dollars from him.He talks about CLV, harvesting bonuses, faking...

The latest episode from @half-kelly.bsky.social is just killer stuff.

www.podbean.com/media/share/...

so am I supposed to be able to see them or not

"The experts thought we'd be good and we were actually dogshit so really, who is the idiot now" is an incredible post from an owner lmao

Verlander in a blue sweater material ribbed polo with salt & pepper hair and 9 o'clock shadow

Justin Verlander looks like a GM explaining why he didn't make a move at the deadline

1123 is very promising but the policymakers just need to make up their minds as to whether they want more housing or not. Their needle threading efforts have massively failed.

They should get rid of the language related to species habitat. If it’s 1.5 acres substantially surrounded by development, that should be good enough. They should also drop the substantial surrounded requirement to 60% of the perimeter.

Google Revenue Soars on AI Boom, and Investors Eye Spending Surge-wsj

Hahaha oh my god, Stu Flashman (an "environmental" attorney) is arguing that *too many* people will use transit if SB79 passes, it will overload rail systems, and people will stop using transit altogether.

Absolutely batshit insane argument. I love it.

Every non-californian who seen Gavin newsom on some 30 second news show clip is like "oh wow, he's got juice" and every Californian is like "if you see Gavin in a dark alley, run as fast as you can, but it won't save you"

POLITICS THE CASE FOR TREATING TRUMP LIKE A NORMAL PRESIDENT Both the president-elect and his opposition should behave differently this time around. By Conor Friedersdorf

CALIFORNIA REPUBLIC Conor Friedersdorf & @conor64 Follow I am astonished by the number of people just now realizing that neither Donald Trump nor most of the people willing to be subservient to him are honest or principled.

Started/going

There is no such thing as liberalism — or progressivism, etc. There is only conservatism. No other political philosophy actually exists; by the political analogue of Gresham’s Law, conservatism has driven every other idea out of circulation. There might be, and should be, anti-conservatism; but it does not yet exist. What would it be? In order to answer that question, it is necessary and sufficient to characterize conservatism. Fortunately, this can be done very concisely. Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protectes but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. For millenia, conservatism had no name, because no other model of polity had ever been proposed. “The king can do no wrong.” In practice, this immunity was always extended to the king’s friends, however fungible a group they might have been. Today, we still have the king’s friends even where there is no king (dictator, etc.). Another way to look at this is that the king is a faction, rather than an individual. As the core proposition of conservatism is indefensible if stated baldly, it has always been surrounded by an elaborate backwash of pseudophilosophy, amounting over time to millions of pages. All such is axiomatically dishonest and undeserving of serious scrutiny. Today, the accelerating de-education of humanity has reached a point where the market for pseudophilosophy is vanishing; it is, as The Kids Say These Days, tl;dr . All that is left is the core proposition itself — backed up, no longer by misdirection and sophistry, but by violence.

So this tells us what anti-conservatism must be: the proposition that the law cannot protect anyone unless it binds everyone, and cannot bind anyone unless it protects everyone. Then the appearance arises that the task is to map “liberalism”, or “progressivism”, or “socialism”, or whateverthefuckkindofstupidnoise-ism, onto the core proposition of anti-conservatism. No, it a’n’t. The task is to throw all those things on the exact same burn pile as the collected works of all the apologists for conservatism, and start fresh. The core proposition of anti-conservatism requires no supplementation and no exegesis. It is as sufficient as it is necessary. What you see is what you get: The law cannot protect anyone unless it binds everyone; and it cannot bind anyone unless it protects everyone.

I think it's now possible to make a poli-sci course that equips one for modern political analysis better than most classic theory and has a syllabus sourced entirely from random internet posts.

Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment
crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...

I’m trying to think of the last thing I heard pmarca say that wasn’t extremely basic. It’s just weird that anyone listens at this point.

If you live in California call your state reps to tell them you support SB79 so we can build more housing around transit!

When will California YIMBY stop ignoring Proposition 13??? cayimby.org/resources/po...

Donate to US Flood Relief Fundraisers Help those affected by flooding across the US. Donate to verified fundraisers to offer flood relief to individuals & their families.

GoFundMe has set up a page for the Texan flood victims. Each campaign has been verified by the company's Trust & Safety experts, which means you know your money is going directly to families. Please consider donating if you can. Their stories are heartbreaking.

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Musk et al already tried their hands at politics. They tried with Desantis, Vivek, RFK Jr, and Dean Philips.

Their endorsement of Trump was like the football player that jumps on the pile in the hopes of recording 1/2 a tackle.

By my calculation, Tesla averaged $4800 gross profit (ex reg credits) per car worldwide in Q1. A $7500 discount won't leave much for operating expenses.

It's so funny how these guys say "import the third world, become the third world" and then their own policy preferences end up converging with the taliban

sure absolutely.

thank you for reading it. appreciated.

<<Maybe the most vivid and hilarious illustration of my point is that noted Tesla bull Cathie Wood published a valuation model in 2019. While the market cap of the company has often hit close to her bull case, the performance of the business has basically tracked the bear case.>>

Elon Derangement Syndrome. open.substack.com/pub/riskofru...

Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban

Tesla sedan hit by train after self-driving error in Berks County, stops train traffic Jack Reinhard16 hrs ago SINKING SPRING BORO., Pa. - Western Berks Fire Commissioner Jared Renshaw said a Tesla was in self-driving mode when it made a left at a railroad crossing. He said it happened on South Hull Street in Sinking Spring around 5:30 a.m. Saturday. "Went down the tracks approximately 40-50 feet. They all exited the vehicle, got their belongings out," said Commissioner Renshaw. He said a train came and hit the vehicle a few minutes later.

uh….I think Tesla’s self-driving capabilities have been overhyped, but I did assume they at least solved the problem of knowing the difference between train tracks and the road 😰

www.wfmz.com/news/area/be...