Shane Swager

YouTube video by Rookie Big Board Presented by Matt Hicks 2025 Senior Bowl Preview: 11 Running Back Prospects You Need to Know

2025 Senior Bowl Preview:
11 Running Back Prospects You Need to Know
@seniorbowl.bsky.social
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It literally just says how much we miss. More success comes out of the earlier picks than later. 1st round misses just hurt more and 2nd round hits make you feel great. Those are just emotions.

How would Reagor in the 1st help your argument?

I’m using actual Rookie drafts as well. You made it sound like I was cherry picking a certain year and brought up 2020 and how I avoided it. I just showed you 2020 from the same league

2020 2nd since you wanted it so bad
Tee Higgins
Zack Moss
Henry Ruggs
Jalen Reagor
Brandon Aiyuk
Denzel Mims
Michael Pittman
AJ Dillon
Chase Claypool
Joshua Kelley
Bryan Edwards
Laviska Shenault

Again more duds than studs

Keenan Allen would still help you more than Pittman 5 seasons in

Market cost lets you shift to known commodity and elevate risk. I’ve gotten Mixon for a 2nd, Jared Goff, Diggs the year he went to Buffalo. Allen and Diggs stacks helped me win a few leagues that year. Not that we want to win

I like to trade my seconds for proven players and try to load up on 3rds for picking instead. I've hit on guys like B Rob, Downs, and Tracy bc I had multiple darts to throw. (Plenty of misses too ofc)

I had lots of Dameon Pierce, he so far helped us a season. Tough to call a hit. It was fun for a minute. It’s a fact that less rookies hit than miss. Tougher to hit the later we get.
The answer to this post for you should be “I haven’t learned yet”

I didn’t pick the draft year you did. I could do this with any year. 2017 could be the strongest in your favor. Theres WR in the 2nd that did better than Corey Davis, TEs who did better than OJ Howard. You act like this is fools proof when your glorify your hits

ARSB is my highest rostered WR, yes it feels good. Everyone hated him. That doesn’t make Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, Trey Sermon, Terrace Marshall, Kadarius Toney, Dyami Brown, Dee Eskridge, Amari Rodgers, or Kenneth Gainwell good picks

Who said anything about dismissing?
If someone like Kittle made it to the 4th round there’s an entire community not being diligent enough.
Amon being in the 2nd made more people wrong than the one person that drafted him. He was more of a miss than a hit.

Just look at all of your historical rookie drafts. Not your picks but each round and how they look. I once drafted George Kittle in the 4th round of a Rookie draft. That doesn’t make the 4th round the best formula for success

Exactly

I think maybe you’re taking this the wrong way. I don’t even see how this is worth debating

ARSB is my highest rostered WR, yes it feels good. Everyone hated him. That doesn’t make Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, Trey Sermon, Terrace Marshall, Kadarius Toney, Dyami Brown, Dee Eskridge, Amari Rodgers, or Kenneth Gainwell good picks

The hits are fun but there’s more misses than hits in between. “Almost” gives plenty of room for the few hits. It’s not like I’ve never hit in those rounds. I just understand that’s special and happens less often than we admit.

Just because a player does good for a year or two doesn’t mean the known commodity you could have traded them for didn’t. Everyone knows using a rookie pick is like driving a brand new car off the lot. We rarely get the Ferrari. That new car smell is nice though

That’s less than 1/3 of the players over that time span and I would have trouble calling a few of them hits. So many of those players didn’t make it to the 2nd round of my drafts.

The “value” of the picks really have nothing to do with my post. There’s usually not 3-5 hits drafted in the 2nd round of a rookie draft either.

Most of the players you mentioned weren’t drafted in the second round. Picking one draft that had more than a historical hit rate only moves the needle a little. The odds are still against us. Go back and look through all of your drafts. Shoot look at all the misses we have in the 1st round too

That’s just not accurate then. It’s definitely not a take. The only research you need to do is looking through your historical Rookie drafts.

Comparing NFL draft picks to Dynasty Rookie picks isn’t a good formula

I agree it’s fun to make picks and we always feel savvy when our guy falls to us.

It blows my mind that most people playing dynasty don’t realize that 2nd round picks are a sub-25% hit rate (declining from top of the round…) and that beyond the second, you’re throwing darts blindfolded in a hurricane.

It’s fun to make picks, but it’s lucrative to trade them.

Been trading all my picks since day 1!

LMAO perfect, that didn’t Treadwell

I raise you Bryan Edwards

About Donte Moncrief years ago

Look through your historical rookie drafts. Tell me which year had more hits than misses in the 2nd and later. I don’t feel this is at all a hot take or worth debating and trying to convince anyone. I’ve had plenty of hits in the 2nd but that doesn’t mean the 2nd and later is full of hits

I only call them almost worthless because they’re