Marvin Elequin

Based on prospects drafted since 2010, with the exception of YPRR (since 2017 only)

Production metrics = college career

Correlation (R2 - 0 to 1) to NFL Points/Game for WR prospects

3 Cone: 0.001
40 Time: 0.015
Vertical: 0.011
Yards/Route Run: 0.12
Rec Yds/Team Pass Att: 0.16
Exp Adjusted Production: 0.25
Draft Capital: 0.35

Don’t let the combine drastically change your opinion on a WR prospect!

5 spots left! The 1.01 is also still available 👀

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YouTube video by Dynasty Hotseat 2026 ROOKIE MOCK DRAFT | DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL

Always love jumping on the @dynastyhotseat.bsky.social to talk about rookies and prospects

Check it out as we talk about my initial Top 12 prospects in a Dynasty SuperFlex draft

youtu.be/0cOeC5vslCQ

Framing it this way really helps put it into perspective

Haha! I will say, there’s a reason the big 3 are all in one tier. I don’t think you can go wrong with any one of them

Right now, it’d probably be Tate!

Finally, below is a quick snapshot of how the 2026 class compares to the last two drafts

While there isn't a prospect that grades as high as Harrison Jr, Nabers, or McMillan, the 2026 class still holds 3 of the Top 7 WR prospects over the last three years

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While there are 16 WRs projected in the first 3 rounds per the Mock Draft Database, hit rates drop significantly after the 70th percentile

WRs who still stand out based on efficiency/production:

• Ja'Kobi Lane (leads class in EPA per Play)
• Eric McCalister
• Dane Key

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Denzel Boston & Omar Cooper Jr lead the next tier

Boston averaged over 37% of Washington's receiving production in his final two seasons

Cooper Jr. did not break out until his final season, but he was always highly efficient (WR2 with a 75% career Success Rate)

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Outside of Tyson, the only WRs in this class with positive experience-adjusted production:

✅ KC Concepcion
✅ Elijah Sarratt

Concepcion holds one of the most productive true freshman seasons (96th %ile)

Sarratt also leads this class in EPA Success Rate (99th %ile)

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Tyson's production is truly elite. He would be WR1 if we only looked at Market Share/Adjusted Production (98th percentile)

Lemon stands out with his efficiency (0.78 EPA/Play & 67% Success Rate). His Junior season was also one of the better campaigns in this class.

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With that being said, there's a clear Top 3:

Carnell Tate
Jordyn Tyson
Makai Lemon

What makes each of them special?

Tate leads this group in EPA per Play (0.81) & Success Rate (70%). His production profile also gets a boost when you adjust for schedule/competition.

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First off, it's important to evaluate this class by Percentile & Hit Rates:

90th - 99.9th: 74%
80th - 90th: 43%
70th - 80th: 36%
60th - 70th: 21%
60th & below: 4%

In other words, it matters less that Tate ranks higher than Lemon when both are in the +90th percentile

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Wide Receiver Prospect Model
2026 Class

Below are the pre-draft results of my WR prospect model, which uses experience-adjusted production, efficiency, & draft capital to evaluate the 2026 class

Breakdowns, hit rates, & comps vs 2024/2025 class in the thread below!

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Appreciate it, Leif 🙌🏼

Appreciate it, Leif! It does, yes. It goes off of draft pick, so they do get a slight boost. But it is only about 50% of the weight with production, efficiency, and athleticism making up the other 50%.

Finally, how does the 2026 class compare to some of the recent prospects who have entered the NFL?

The 2025 class remains one of the deepest in recent history, with Ashton Jeanty leading the way

Jeremiyah Love would be the RB2 as a prospect over the last three drafts

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As you can see above, hit rates outside of the 70th Percentile drop significantly

RBs outside of that range that stand out based on production and efficiency:

• Kaytron Allen (86th %ile Senior year)
• Seth McGowan (leads class with 51% EPA success rate)

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Historical Hit Rates* by Percentile

• 90th - 99.9th Percentile: 92%
• 80th - 90th Percentile: 58%
• 70th - 80th Percentile: 42%
• 60th - 70th Percentile: 15%
• Below 60th Percentile: 14%

*Top 24 Fantasy Season in PPG

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After Coleman, there's a cluster of three RBs in Tier 3:

Emmett Johnson
Nick Singleton
Jadarian Price

Johnson stands out with the most productive season by an RB in this class (98th percentile in 2025)

Singleton remains one of the most productive true freshmen

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Washington's Jonah Coleman currently holds the RB2 spot after two productive seasons at Washington (27% dominator rating since 2024)

Worth noting, the 2026 class is projected to have the largest gap between RB1 and RB2, with Coleman ranking only in the 79th percentile

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Jeremiyah Love is the clear RB1 in this class, checking multiple boxes as a prospect:

✅ Positive Exp-Adjusted Production
✅ 92nd Percentile Junior Season
✅ Early Declare
✅ Expected 1st Round Capital

He should be the 1.01 in Dynasty Drafts

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Running Back Prospect Model
2026 Class

Below are the pre-draft results of my RB prospect model, which uses experience-adjusted production, efficiency, & draft capital to evaluate the 2026 class

Breakdowns, hit rates, & comps vs 2024/2025 class in the thread below! 🧵

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Keep in mind, athleticism matters at the TE position, but production is still the stronger indicator. Correlation (R2) for TE prospects since 2013:

• 0.06 - Relative Athletic Score
• 0.11 - Height Adj Speed Score
• 0.23 - Schedule Adj Production
• 0.41 - Draft Capital

For context, there were 4 TEs in the 2025 class who exceeded 2.0 RYTPA in their best college season:

Harold Fannin Jr (3.7)
Tyler Warren (2.82)
Oronde Gadsden II (2.79)
Colston Loveland (2.20)

Important to note, correlations to PPG improve if you adjust for strength of schedule

Great question - here are a few recent ones:

Brock Bowers (2.23)
Trey McBride (2.83)
Colton Loveland (2.20)
Tyler Warren (2.82)
Kyle Pitts (2.52)
Sam LaPorta (2.12)
Dalton Kincaid (2.34)
Harold Fannin (3.7)

For TE prospects, “best season” college production has one of the higher correlations to fantasy PPG at the next level

Leaders in “best season” Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt - 2026 TE class:

• Eli Stowers (2.11)
• Max Klare (2.08)
• Tanner Koziol (1.93)