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Shown is an NWS NDFD forecast of 24 hour total precipitation through 1 PM CDT on Saturday.

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Shown is an NDFD forecast of maximum temperatures today across the continental USA. Particularly high temperatures are expected in the Plains and the Midwest.

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Shown is an NDFD forecast of maximum temperatures across the continental USA today.

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As another night with aurora borealis unfolds, here's a GFS scenario of total cloud cover across Europe at 21 UTC tonight. Blue colors indicate clear sky while white indicates clouds.

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While Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to head away from the US, there are still some rainfall impacts possible in the southeastern US. Shown is an NDFD forecast of precipitation through 7 AM CDT on Thursday.

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AL94 could develop into a tropical depression this weekend. There is still uncertainty involved about exact impacts and path in the longer term. However, parts of the SE US coast should follow the development of the system. Shown is a comparison of various EPS members scenarios.

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Hurricane Gabrielle is expected to cross the Azores on Friday either as a tropical or a post-tropical system. Regardless of the storm type, there is a risk of violent winds, storm surge, damaging waves and heavy rainfall in the Azores and warnings should be taken seriously.

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Shown is a map of forecast maximum temperature today across the continental USA according the NWS NDFD.

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The SPC has highlighted a level 3 out of 5 severe weather risk area today in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas for this afternoon into the evening. The main concern is a risk of a few tornadoes, some of them may be strong. Shown is a scenario of 6 hour maximum updraft helicity from HRRR

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A caveat applies to this map in that this does not show the type of the cyclone. While you may see track points eventually heading towards mainland Europe, Gabrielle will have lost its tropical characteristics by then.

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Azores, watch Gabrielle! While it is still early to specify the magnitude of impacts, the hurricane is expected to approach Azores on Thursday. Shown is a comparison of the scenarios of the track of Gabrielle's center according to different forecast models and the NHC.

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Shown is a look at forecast maximum temperatures across the continental USA today according to the NWS NDFD.

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Tropical moisture from ex-Mario is pushing into the Southwest, bringing a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding today and Friday. Shown is an NDFD forecast of rainfall through 5 AM PDT Saturday.

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Tropical storm Gabrielle has formed in the Atlantic, but is not expected to pose a threat to the mainland US. Shown is a comparison of model scenarios of the potential tracks of the Gabrielle's center in the coming days.

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Shown is a forecast of low temperatures tonight according to the NWS NDFD.

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Radar is busy in South Florida where showers and thunderstorms are expected through Saturday, capable of causing heavy rain and bringing urban/flash flooding concerns. Remember: turn around, don't drown!

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Shown is a forecast of maximum temperature across the continental US today according to the NWS NDFD.

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Tropical Storm Kiko is passing north of Hawaii today and Wednesday with main concerns there being high surf and rip currents. Shown is the scenario of possible tracks of the center of Kiko according to various EPS ensemble members. Kiko is expected to dissipate by weekend.

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Here's a look at the MRMS radar composite of the state of Kansas where there are flood warnings and flash flood warnings in effect in parts of the state this afternoon.

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Shown is a forecast of maximum temperatures during the coming days in the continental US according to the NWS NDFD. As the time increases, so do the differences in forecast decisions between some adjacent NWS offices (for example, see the area covered by the Amarillo WFO).

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Here is a look at forecast 48 hour rainfall between 1 PM CDT Monday and 1 PM CDT Wednesday according to the NWS NDFD. Flash flooding is a concern in parts of AR, OK, KS and CO through Wednesday.

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Hurricane Erin might be moving away from the US but swimming in many of the beaches along the US East Coast remains dangerous for a couple more days due to swells and rip currents associated with Erin. Shown here is a scenario of significant wave height from ECMWF.

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What's an extratropical cyclone? It's the usual area of low pressure with fronts that we get all the time. You may also hear terms such as mid-latitude cyclone.

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Here's a look at possible future tracks of the center of Hurricane Erin according to various models. Note that impacts reach far away from the center! Erin is expected to become extratropical this weekend and cross the Atlantic as such, regardless what tabloids might write.

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Hurricane Erin is starting to show up in NEXRAD imagery as well, as conditions are expected to deteriorate soon in the NC Outer Banks. While thankfully Erin's eye stays offshore, Erin is so large that some impacts will still be felt.

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While Hurricane Erin's eye is expected to stay offshore, it is a large hurricane and impacts can be felt far away from the center. For example, storm surge and tropical storm conditions are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

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While impacts are expected from Hurricane Erin's outer rainbands and swells caused by the hurricane, the eyewall with the worst conditions is expected to stay offshore. Shown is a scenario from the GFS through the next 3 days.

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Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible this evening and overnight in parts of the northern Plains. There is definitely a signal for late evening thunderstorms also in this simulated radar scenario from the HRRR.

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Shown is a comparison of different model scenarios about the path of Tropical Storm Erin's center. At this point it is still too early to make any specific calls for specific locations. Keep following latest advisories from the NHC as the week progresses.

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A look at forecast maximum temperatures across the continental USA today according to the NWS NDFD.

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