Naman Rawat

Doktoranden Fahimas hotas av utvisning – sista året Indisk doktorand i Göteborg hotas av utvisning. Backas upp av Centrum för rättvisa.

In Sweden, most PhD students work at 80% contract to extend funding. Now international PhDs are being deported for doing exactly that. So much for “Swedish exceptionalism”. www.tv4.se/artikel/ZhUi...

Had a great conversation with @andyluttrell.bsky.social on why even the best messaging won't bring everyone to your side, and all things immigration opinion and politics. Give it a listen!

opinionsciencepodcast.com/episode/maki...

Cheers mate. Hope you are enjoying EUI.

The Green Gender Gap: Environmental attitudes and pro-environmental vote choice across Europe Does gender matter for how we engage with green political ideas? Using more than twenty years of data across 36 European countries, this paper identif…

Still controlling for gender without thinking about why? You can cite me💚👩‍🔬💚

I show that the gender gap in progressive climate and environmental views is a persistent empirical regularity that cannot be explained by differences in socioeconomic background, political ideology, or risk aversion.

📢 New in IMR. We often ask whether #refugees “integrate.” But what happens when the host society becomes hostile? I develop the concept of social marginalization and show that refugees in more #violent German counties report stronger feelings of exclusion and discrimination. doi.org/10.1177/0197...

🎉 New publication 😍 The 4th wave of the #farright is marked by #mainstreaming & #normalisation - but how can we distinguish between them? In our new article, @gefjonoff.bsky.social and I map the existing literature, introduce a conceptual framework & outline research avenues. doi.org/10.1017/S147...

Fair Transition — Transition Clause for Swedish Citizenship Sweden's new citizenship law lacks transition provisions for pending applications. We advocate for a transition clause to protect good-faith applicants.

The current processing time for a citizenship application in Sweden is 47 months. The government wants to apply new citizenship requirements to people who applied for citizenship years ago but are still waiting.

There is grassroots mobilization against this:

www.fairtransitionsweden.com

Update:

As @robfordmancs.bsky.social said to @theguardian.com, zero net migration may offer Labour "the opportunity to steer the domestic political agenda away from" Reform's key topic.

Other experts stress that Labour loses votes to Greens & LD.

Yes, *for now*, but Labour may play the long game.

Han lämnar Migrationsverkets etiska råd i protest – kallar politiken omänsklig Professor Ludvig Beckman lämnar Migrationsverkets etiska råd i protest. Utvisningspolitiken är nu så omänsklig att den strider mot grundlagen, anser han.

"Professor Ludvig Beckman lämnar sin plats i Migrationsverkets etiska råd i protest. Utvisningspolitiken är nu så omänsklig att den strider mot grundlagen, anser han.
– Jag kan inte legitimera utvisningar av 18-åringar som växt upp här och som har föräldrar som bor här, säger han."

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

When one mother was taken by ICE, another stepped in to donate breastmilk Moms in Minneapolis are donating diapers, food and time to help families who have been ripped apart by ICE.

A newborn in Minneapolis hadn’t eaten for a day and a half.

ICE agents took her mother when she went to work, trying to make money for diapers.

Her 16-year-old and Bri, a local mother of two, saved that baby's life. @chabeli.bsky.social tells their story

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran? Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

Very very likely that Trump might attack Iran.... just to create a distraction from what is happening with ICE in Minnesota. www.bbc.com/news/article...

DHS has shot 12 people during immigration enforcement operations since September:

Our cover this week.

The “criminal immigrant" narrative manufactured by the US media-propaganda apparatus psychologically embeds immigrants into racial hierarchies within the social imagination

PDF:
joeledmartinez.com/wp-content/u...

Cartoon by @mortenmorland.bsky.social.

Video Analysis of ICE Shooting Sheds Light on Contested Moments

The NYT has a new video analysis of Renee Good's shooting which is careful, accurate, and clear - he walked across the path of a moving car, then leaned in and shot her with his feet well clear of the vehicle. 1/

Just so people understand the timeline:

(1) The president of the United States called Somali-Americans "garbage" and the Vice President says that the US has a "Somali Problem".

(2) The White House directs immigration agencies to Minnesota due to its large Somali community.

Eyewitness account: Good morning, My name is Brandon Siguenza, and l am a US citizen from Minneapolis. Yesterday, while doing legal observation, ICE stopped their cars to harass my friend and me. They sprayed pepper spray into the vent of our vehicle. We held our hands in the air and told them we were not obstructing, that the car was in park and they were free to drive forward and away. There was no active immigration raid. They returned to their cars, and drove forward a bit, then decided to stop again. They surrounded us, smashed the windows of our car, opened the doors (they were unlocked), ripped my friend and I out of the car and arrested us on charges of obstruction. I was put in an unmarked SUV, separated from my friend. As I was put in the back seat an ICE agent tore the whistle off my neck and said "I'll be taking this, I might need it later." My phone was knocked out of my hand while being arrested. As we drove away I asked the driver and the passenger if they wouldn't mind buckling my seatbelt, as they were driving erratically. I was ignored. I asked them if I could have the handcuffs loosened, as I was losing circulation, and was told no. At one point the passenger realized his own driver's license was in the backseat next to mine, and tried to surreptitiously grab it without me seeing it. We were taken to the Whipple federal building, where I saw dozens of brown people being processed in an unheated garage. I was frisked, told of my charges, and saw buses and vans being prepped. I later learned that these were being filled with detainees and driven to the airport for deportation. As we were led in, I noticed that the building was very busy. I got the impression that one of the 2 agents bringing me around was being trained. At multiple points throughout my stay, government agents were unable to open doors, not sure where they were meant to be going, and overall confused and overwhelmed. They couldn't figure out how to use the building phones, or complai…

just a reminder that we aren’t even seeing the worst of what is happening in Minneapolis from someone detailed at the Whipple Federal Building yesterday

Autocracy.

ICE has long used the latest spy tech to pursue immigrants — but now it’s also targeting anti-ICE protesters. Here's what you need to know:

When asked what you would need in order to have kids, economic concerns dominate. Men report a higher need for a suitable partner (43%) than women (29%).

In this question 33% of women report they don't want children compared to 8% of men.

With ~9 months to election day, the Moderates, the traditional right wing party, are five points behind the right wing populist Sweden Democrats.

NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.

OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...

En 12-årig pojke misstänks för mord - Radio Sweden på lätt svenska En 12-årig pojke misstänks ha dödat en man i Malmö i fredags. Mannen hittades skjuten i en bil. Rikspolischefen Petra Lundh säger att det är första gången ...

A 12-year-old is suspected of committing a murder in Malmö last week. Until now, criminal networks have used children to carry weapons and plant hand grenades, but not as hit men. This is a direct result of the right-wing government's punitive criminal policy.
www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/en-1...

2024-25 CASBS fellow @maureeneger.bsky.social heads into winter break in fine fashion w/yet another pub, this time as co-editor of the book "Anti-Colonial Global Scholarship" 🙌

About the book: bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/anti-colonia...

Open access options: chooser.crossref.org?doi=10.51952...

Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...

(from my presentation at the IMF last week)

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New today at Science Advances from @kshoub.bsky.social and me. We revisit the question of whether a local tragedy (mass shooting) influences voter behavior. They do, at least at the local level, with some important caveats and implications for policy. Short thread...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...