Jim Duncan

Sunlight illuminating mountain over a field

Looking backwards, brief sunrise

Two people on bicycles, looking at morning light on the mountain, pink clouds, one of the cyclist is taking a picture. Car in the distance ahead, trying to ruin the picture

Mornings like this.

I hope the city and county do. It’s not one or the other.

And if it’s done only in the city and not tied in with the county, it’s not sufficient

There are surely downsides, but top line, this is great for Charlottesville & Albemarle. And the Charlottesville real estate market

"AstraZeneca today announces that it will invest $4.5 billion in its new manufacturing facility in Virginia"

www.astrazeneca-us.com/media/press-...

blinding sun and pavement

moon, sunrise illuminating the mountain and a paved road

train on the left, double yellow line and pavement, helmet light brightly illuminating the road.

start of the sunrise. black at the bottom, trees's silhouettes, and then increasing from faded light blue to darker blue. and a darn power line.

Still thinking about how on this morning’s ride my group was buzzed by two cars in succession, both going at least 35 miles an hour and a 25, and the police officer behind them did absolutely nothing.

Still, a great ride

Would be cool if Garmin would put an app on the Apple Watch. Thinking about abandoning Strava because of their recent stupidity

Une peinture représentant Portland Frog face à une muraille de forces de "l'ordre"

Le monde a besoin de plus de Portland Frog. @4nikkolas.bsky.social

“Who” is, objectively, the funniest possible response here

To be fair, overlapping MSAs is common.

And yes, Charlottesville and Albemarle should coordinate better on transportation and housing policy.

My opinion (not an economist or future teller) - if rates get to 4%, we're in trouble.

a man in a suit and tie is laughing with his mouth open Alt: Goodfellas character in a suit and tie is laughing with his mouth open

This is the only response.

map of Virginia showing typical higher-tier home values (65th–95th percentile) by metro area for August 2025. Charlottesville is $786,700; Richmond $589,001; Harrisonburg $518,596; Staunton–Waynesboro $470,875; Lynchburg $446,736; Roanoke $473,238; Elkins, WV $261,342. Darker blue indicates higher values.

map of Virginia showing typical lower-tier home values (5th–35th percentile) by metro area for August 2025. Charlottesville is $296,040; Richmond $264,953; Harrisonburg $248,850; Staunton–Waynesboro $227,821; Lynchburg $170,047; Roanoke $182,991; Elkins, WV $85,320. Darker blue indicates higher values.

map of Virginia showing typical middle-tier home values (35th–65th percentile) by metro area for August 2025. Charlottesville is $460,718; Richmond $384,156; Harrisonburg $343,589; Staunton–Waynesboro $321,056; Lynchburg $281,523; Roanoke $290,965; Elkins, WV $156,565. Darker blue indicates higher values.

map of Virginia showing home price percentage change since March 2020 by metro area (Aug 2025). Charlottesville up 41.5%, Richmond up 46.8%, Harrisonburg up 43.2%, Staunton–Waynesboro up 40.1%, Lynchburg up 49.6%, Roanoke up 52.9%, Elkins, WV up 40%. Blue shading shows positive appreciation.

The new ResiClub Terminal offers some great data visualizations that support this.

Two Charlottesville real estate market things from today:
- photographer said he's very busy with sellers prepping to list their houses this year
- lender said he's heard of a lot of sellers about to go on the market, try for 30 days (or until Thanksgiving) and pull off if they don't sell.

Fancy single-family townhomes on the left. Two lanes of pavement for cars and trucks . Trees on the right and then a walking path of pavement.

Got to ride my bike to pick up a thing or two.

I do like this stretch of road though, although it could be a bit curvier

#charlottesville

Charlottesville Market Insight, Shocking New Construction numbers, Smart Searching, & (re)Imagining Growth October 2025 | Jim's Note -- Happy October — cooler air, falling leaves, Charlottesville real estate market questions — plus a few ideas on housing, cities, and legacy.

I liked some parts of this month's note, in part because when I sent it to a client in response to her query about the market, she said, "I read your note every month the day it comes out!"

realcentralva.substack.com/p/charlottes...

I really believe that huge majorities of Americans don’t want masked soldiers shooting priests in the street. They don’t want naked children ripped out out of their apartments in the middle of the night and handcuffed. We win by making sure these stories get told.

Amazing congratulations! Thank you so much!

Stephen froze like a deer in the headlights and pretended to have connection issues because he unintentionally gave away the game plan.

“Plenary authority is complete, absolute power over a specific area or issue, with no significant limitations."

Show people this clip. This is an insane slip up.

Sunrise and pink clouds

sunrise with a moon dog

sunrise with a moon dog. like a sundog, but a moon dog.

two people on bicycles, and a moon and clouds

A great day to ride bicycles outside, no matter what else is happening in this world.

From the Charlottesville community on Reddit: Charlottesville Real Estate AMA - October 2025 Explore this post and more from the Charlottesville community

Charlottesville real estate Reddit AMA now. These are always fun, in part because I always learn something from the questions

www.reddit.com/r/Charlottes...

Republicans should note. Governor Greg Abbott of Texas and Senator Mike Lee of Utah have endorsed Federal Occupation of States. These are both elected officials speaking on behalf of Texas and Utah. Valuable information! Please share! #Utah #Texas #FederalOccupation

Group of people standing in line trying to get into heaven behind a sign that says “ANTI-VAX STATION WAIT HERE UNTIL THE PEOPLE YOU INFECTED HAVE GONE” Because you know well, by choosing to not be vaccinated, they killed people

Well said.

U.S. counties where large investors—those owning at least 100 homes—own the highest percentage of the single-family housing stock -- Louisa County has 12 "large investors" For this analysis, “large investors” are defined as firms that own at least 100 single-family homes. The data consolidates smaller LLCs under their respective parent companies.

U.S. counties where large investors—those owning at least 100 homes—own the highest percentage of the single-family housing stock -- Charlottesville City has ZERO "large investors" For this analysis, “large investors” are defined as firms that own at least 100 single-family homes. The data consolidates smaller LLCs under their respective parent companies.

U.S. counties where large investors—those owning at least 100 homes—own the highest percentage of the single-family housing stock -- Albemarle County has 12 "large investors" For this analysis, “large investors” are defined as firms that own at least 100 single-family homes. The data consolidates smaller LLCs under their respective parent companies.

U.S. counties where large investors—those owning at least 100 homes—own the highest percentage of the single-family housing stock -- Greene County has 7 "large investors" For this analysis, “large investors” are defined as firms that own at least 100 single-family homes. The data consolidates smaller LLCs under their respective parent companies.

Oh, no, Blackrock is buying all the homes!

Actually ...

www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-ma...

(I had no idea there were so many Greene Counties!

2025: 3204
2024: 2969
2023: 2990
2019: 3223
2010: 2649

Median square footage new construction sold detached in Albemarle. 1/1 - 10/3

Sunrise over a gravel country road lined with trees. The sun is low on the horizon, casting long shadows across misty fields and a few distant trees, with a clear sky fading from gold to pale blue.

Morning sun rising over misty pastureland behind a wooden fence. Trees frame the gravel road to the right, and low fog hangs across the field under a clear sky.

My shadow on a quiet gravel road bordered by trees on both sides. The early morning sun creates long shadows, and the sky is bright blue.

Map of my ride. 37.74 mi Distance 2:24:29 Time 15.7 mph Avg Speed 2,507 ft

Today was also a great morning to ride bicycles outside, solo, making up the route as I went.

Bar chart showing median sale prices of attached new-construction homes in Albemarle County, Virginia, January 1–October 3 for 2010, 2019, 2023, 2024, 2025. Bars rise from $250,730 in 2010 to $365,000 in 2019, $460,000 in 2023, $475,000 in 2024, then slightly down to $468,022 in 2025. Each bar also lists number of homes sold: 96 (2010), 187 (2019), 221 (2023), 225 (2024), 111 (2025). Population figures shown below each year: about 98,970 (2010), 109,158 (2019 est.), 113,683 (2023 est.), 117,313 (2024 est.), 117,338 (2025 est.). Background is light “Mist” color with dark green bars.

And - New construction in Albemarle County, median price, # sold, population of Albemarle County.

(I'm getting ready for tomorrow morning's Reddit AMA about Charlottesville real estate)

in this chart, the () = # of homes sold from 1/1 to 10/3 Median price of sold attached new construction homes in Albemarle County, 1 January through 3 October 2025: $468,022 2024: $475,000 2023: $460,000 2019: $365,000 2010: $250,730 # of Homes Sold: 2025: 111 2024: 225 2023: 221 2019: 187 2010: 96

Median square footage for attached new construction in Albemarle County:

2025: 2084
2024: 2145
2023: 2140
2019: 2111
2010: 2088

in this chart, the () = # of homes sold from 1/1 to 10/3

MORE: Immergut issued a stark warning that the efforts by Trump to make a bad-faith justification to call up the guard risked plunging the country into a form of unconstitutional military rule.

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Mountain Road. Ribbon of pavement with mountains in the background

Shadows of three people on bicycles on pavement, with morning light

Orange-red sunrise, steam rising off a pond, trees and field

Blue sky, silhouettes of trees and silos in the background

A good morning to ride bicycles outside around Crozet.

‘Fuck You, Make Me’ Link to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohPToBog_-g

Fuck you, make me.

Perfect.

Shame the "opposition" "leaders" choose acquiescing and capitulation rather than this.

"“Fuck you, make me” is, to me, the founding principle of this nation. That was our message to King George III, a tyrant descending into madness"

daringfireball.net/linked/2025/...