Kevin Collins

There is no such thing as a “legitimate” claim to a monarchical throne because all monarchical power is inherently illegitimate.

That's a lot of cancer research

WATCH: How traffic dried up in the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is "about as wrong as things could go" for global oil markets. Iran achieved it not with a naval blockade, but with cheap drones.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is "about as wrong as things could go" for global oil markets. Iran achieved it not with a naval blockade, but with cheap drones. n.pr/4lcJ9bF

Men who are overconfident in financial matters are often less confident about their masculinity - LSE Business Review If men really wanted to show how much they know about financial markets, the best thing they could do would be to invest more like women.

I distilled some of my work on masculinity and finance into a post for LSE Business.
Men are using finance knowledge and risk seeking as way of performing gender: so it’s insecure men who are the most prone to bad, risky investment.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessrevi...

Nancy Youssef, ..guil @ X.com @nancyayoussef The preliminary Pentagon cost estimate of the war in Iran is $1 billion a day, a congressional official told me. 12:20 PM • 3/4/26 • 44K Views

Preliminary Pentagon cost estimate of the war in Iran is $1 BILLION a day. So far.

Presumably, any reasonable person, when asked if they are having an affair with a subordinate, in a room full of cameras, while sitting directly in front of your spouse, they would respond "no" unless that risks perjury. So we need to presume no answer is an answer in the affirmative

Corruption watch

That's not a "no"

The attention crosstabs in our Iran poll are kind of interesting measurement of how attention corresponds to strength of opinion/likelihood of choosing DK when offered

Those following more closely are 26 pts likelier than those not to express strong opinion

www.documentcloud.org/documents/27...

Was trying to look at mode effects in the Texas primary polls. Unfortunately, this is about the level of detail of the modal methods statement (and some have less)

Just less than a week ago, everyone was obsessing over a University of Texas poll that showed Crockett winning 56-44. But there were signs even then to be wary of how the poll was conducted, and they're good lessons for the long primary season ahead.

Some very well-timed polling that finds little evidence of a shift on Iran after the US took military action:

She wouldn't answer the question -- and a Republican member would probably object -- but sometimes non-answers are answers

The US Navy literally just torpedoed and sunk an Iranian frigate in the Indian Ocean, off the *coast of Sri Lanka,* killing 80+

You cannot make reliable inferences about the general election from primary election results. Do more polling instead.

Curious where people place Pritzker and Newsom in this 2x2

Reposting this provocation at a time when more people are online

How I arrived on Bluesky

To be clear, this is a paper idea that I would be very interested to read, but lack the incentive structure to actually do myself

Public Inspection: Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposals, Submissions, and Approvals: Current Population Survey 2026 Field Test Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposals, Submissions, and Approvals: Current Population Survey 2026 Field Test

NEW: The Census Bureau is planning to test allowing households to respond online to the Current Population Survey from July until October, according to the Federal Register. The survey produces the monthly jobs report, plus estimates of voter turnout and registration rates in federal elections

Plausible exemplars? Please debate among yourselves

The 2x2 of 2026 (and, I'd expect, 2028)

(I don't actually have particularly informed or strong feelings about the primary contest)

I'm, perhaps predictably, interested in the survey mode effect angle

A story in two acts

Light exposure ?

“Driving up your electric bill” is tangible, unlike future job loss fears, and the proof is literally in your mailbox

Taco Tuesday

Would love to see some systematic testing of this, but I would hypothesize that “AI is driving up your electric bill” works better than any other argument against it for persuasion, including “it’s going to take your job” and “it’s hurting the environment”

No I’m referencing what Putin calls the Ukraine war