Kevin Collins

If there ever was a “major question” requiring more specific delegation … and yet …

NEW. U Mass Poll.

Trump approve/disapprove: 38%/58% (cf. April, 44/53).

How much have you read, seen, or heard about Jeffrey Epstein?
A lot 36%
Some 41%
Not much 19%
Nothing 4%.

Trump administration hiding important information on Epstein? Agree 63%. Disagree 15%.

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/zgf7d...

Plus a white nectarine galette

My wife was out of town with the kids this weekend weekend for a “ladies and babies” trip with college friends, so I cooked one of her favorites, scallops, on her return.

Brown butter scallops, sweet corn, brown butter chanterelles, a sweet corn saffron buerre blanc, and pickled chiles

You know this is a parody in the Onion, right?

Emphasis on *some*

I genuinely wish we weren't already having the "can the private sector recreate BLS data" conversation but it is kind of cosmic to see employment data being revised to match what surveys of feelings about the economy have been telling us all year, rather than vice versa

Congrats, and thank you for your service.

Wait, you're a county chair now?

Already having minor FOMO over skipping #JSM2025. Survey Research Methods folks there, please post!

If you work in/adjacent to Democratic politics, or even if you are an occasional Democratic donor, this new @adambonica.bsky.social piece is the most important thing you can read today.

The Democratic Party cannot build power if it allows scam pacs to thrive

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

*”should already be subscribed”

Sigh, this is what I mean

(reposted to fix typo)

Also, unless you are only following this account for the survey methods posts, you should be already be subscribed to Adam’s Substack, since he is covering a lot of the same territory, but with actual original analysis and greater rigor than my dashed-off, typo-laden posts 

If you work in/adjacent to Democratic politics, or even if you are an occasional Democratic donor, this new @adambonica.bsky.social piece is the most important thing you can read today.

The Democratic Party cannot build power if it allows scam pacs to thrive

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

Goldman: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k”

bsky.app/profile/bgru...

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

Thread of research relying on world-renowned data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Please contribute

So much of my own research has used BLS data

Growing income inequality in who gets a college education - from NLSY79/97

www.nber.org/system/files...

the voting rights act is, in its entirety, obviously constitutional under the 15th amendment, which gives congress broad and proactive authority to stop racial discrimination in voting. and you know it is obviously constitutional because roberts has had to invent entire new doctrines to gut it.

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

“Dead on the inside” could be portrayed more sub textually, writers

Good writing should be more subtle than this.

Definitely an area ripe for political and policy entrepreneurs; majorities of both parties think the fed gov is doing a bad job

Are there party crosstabs here besides the good/bad jobs question ?

What a night to skip a Brewers game

I know.

We are going to need to re-amend the constitution along the lines of “You see those 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments? We really meant it the first time”

Me three months ago:

Cool looking job for Director of Polling at the AI Policy Institute, which does not appear to be an industry front group

www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...

President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system. The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system.

"The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.

"...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."