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François Heisbourg

@fheisbourg.bsky.social

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS, Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

11,625 Followers  |  167 Following  |  1,753 Posts  |  Joined: 22.10.2023
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Posts by François Heisbourg (@fheisbourg.bsky.social)

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A US Navy submarine sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena with a torpedo in the Indian Ocean. According to crew reports, approximately 100 people were killed, and 78 were injured.

04.03.2026 14:29 — 👍 213    🔁 33    💬 14    📌 8
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1/2 Guerre d'Ukraine | 02/03/26

Secteurs :
🌐 Lyman-Zarichne🔹U260302-1614
🌐 Kramatorsk-Soledar🔹U260302-1619
🌐 Pokrovsk-Rodynske-Hryshyne🔹U260302-1626
🌐 Ternuvate-Novomykolaivka🔹U260302-1637

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

03.03.2026 16:02 — 👍 60    🔁 14    💬 4    📌 0
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❗️An Israeli Air Force F-35I has shot down an Iranian Yak-130 advanced jet trainer aircraft over Tehran, marking the first time an F-35 has ever downed a manned "fighter jet." #Iran

04.03.2026 08:49 — 👍 232    🔁 32    💬 16    📌 5
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A Starlink outage has paralyzed Russian forces near Kostiantynivka, with a drop in assault activity reported, senior sergeant Vitaliy Pyasetskyi of the 93rd Brigade said. Russia can no longer conduct deep reconnaissance or adjust artillery fire, he said. #Ukraine

04.03.2026 08:45 — 👍 399    🔁 71    💬 10    📌 5
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Local media report a Russian Shahed-type kamikaze drone attacked a passenger train in Mykolaiv. No reports of casualties or injuries have been reported yet.

04.03.2026 07:15 — 👍 26    🔁 14    💬 2    📌 2

Look here 👇

04.03.2026 07:06 — 👍 15    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1470

1. Growing eviction effects between competing air defence requirements between military theatres: Ukraine, Gulf, East Asia. Zelensky suggests counter-drone/Patriot swap with Gulf

2. 🇺🇦 pushing in Pokrovsk area

3 ~100 Shahed/ 19 leakers

04.03.2026 07:22 — 👍 21    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0

Zelensky proposing trade to Gulfies: we'll give you counter-drone kit if you send us Patriot

04.03.2026 07:07 — 👍 47    🔁 10    💬 1    📌 0

was beter geweest als die naar Oekraine waren gestuurd

04.03.2026 06:35 — 👍 89    🔁 20    💬 5    📌 0

Big deal, if confirmed

04.03.2026 07:04 — 👍 27    🔁 9    💬 4    📌 1
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Iran brings exploding drone boats into war in attack on oil tanker Iran is using exploding drone boats for the first time in war in the Middle East, hitting an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz after ordering the key shipping passage closed.

Iran is using exploding drone boats for the first time in war in the Middle East, hitting an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz after ordering the key shipping passage closed.

04.03.2026 06:48 — 👍 17    🔁 4    💬 2    📌 1

Macron confirms carrier task force Charles de Gaulle being sent from 🇸🇪 to Med. Rafale providing cover to 🇫🇷 facilities in Abu Dhabi. Indicates Iranian drones had been shot down by 🇫🇷 a/c from day 1. Stresses defence commitments with 🇶🇦,🇰🇼 & signally UAE 🇦🇪, plus 🇯🇴🇮🇶. Sending frigate to Cyprus 🇨🇾

03.03.2026 20:07 — 👍 27    🔁 7    💬 0    📌 0
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Dow tumbles 1,000 points and oil prices surge as concerns mount that the Middle East conflict could escalate https://cnn.it/4skxSIv

03.03.2026 15:02 — 👍 110    🔁 42    💬 37    📌 14

If confirmed, will Orbán thank Putin?

03.03.2026 14:04 — 👍 27    🔁 5    💬 0    📌 0

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1469

1. Zelensky voices concern re air defence supplies inn wake of Iran war

2. Big shift of French nuclear doctrine (dissuasion avancée ), dispositions (European deployment of nuclear a/c) & acquisition (more nukes, hypersonics). 8 partners

3. ~80 Shahed, 5 leakers

03.03.2026 09:57 — 👍 21    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 1
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US LNG producers rush to seize on surging gas prices in Europe and Asia Venture Global and Cheniere Energy look to bring on extra capacity as Iran conflict risks causing shortages

US LNG producers rush to seize on surging gas prices in Europe and Asia ft.trib.al/dfGlzia

03.03.2026 00:31 — 👍 37    🔁 17    💬 1    📌 3
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Rubio says US launched strikes on Iran because Israel planned to attack Saudi Arabia says US embassy in Riyadh hit by drones as conflict enters fourth day

Rubio says US launched strikes on Iran because Israel planned to attack ft.trib.al/UiVqx49

03.03.2026 02:27 — 👍 208    🔁 81    💬 33    📌 30
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Ukraine War Latest: Ukraine captured more territory than it lost to Russia over February 2026, Syrskyi says Key Developments on March 2: * Ukraine captured more territory than it lost to Russia over February 2026, Syrskyi says * US deploys LUCAS kamikaze drones against Iran 'for first time in combat' * ...

Ukraine captured more territory than it lost to Russia over February 2026, Syrskyi says; US deploys LUCAS kamikaze drones against Iran 'for first time in combat'; 70% of Ukrainians skeptical US-Ukraine-Russia talks will bring lasting peace, poll shows; and more.

02.03.2026 20:02 — 👍 311    🔁 39    💬 2    📌 4

A game changer for French and European defence. This has been in rhe works for quite some time...Despite French domestic political travails, I expect this to cement rather than imperil the French nuclear consensus. Much to discuss

03.03.2026 08:55 — 👍 46    🔁 13    💬 2    📌 0
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Macron Expands French Nuclear Arsenal and Vows Protection for Neighbors

For the NYT I called it a "nuclear backstop".
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/w...

03.03.2026 07:05 — 👍 47    🔁 9    💬 0    📌 3

French "dissuasion avancée" nuclear doctrine announced yesterday is broadly accepted in France: not turning into a political football

03.03.2026 08:18 — 👍 18    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0
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France to increase nuclear arsenal and European weapons cooperation, Macron says French president says Paris could deploy nuclear-capable fighter jet to countries such as Germany and Poland France will increase the size of its nuclear arsenal for the first time in decades and significantly intensify nuclear weapons cooperation with eight European allies including the UK as part of a “major” strengthening of its deterrence doctrine, Emmanuel Macron has said. Amid growing concern among European leaders about wavering US commitments to help defend the continent, the French president said on Monday that Paris could deploy nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets to partner countries such as Germany and Poland. Continue reading...

France to increase nuclear arsenal and European weapons cooperation, Macron says

02.03.2026 21:05 — 👍 124    🔁 34    💬 11    📌 15
ENTCOM Update 

TAMPA, Fla. – As of 4 pm ET, March 2, six U.S. service members have been killed in action. U.S. forces recently recovered the remains of two previously unaccounted for service members from a facility that was struck during Iran's initial attacks in the region.  

Major combat operations continue. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification.

ENTCOM Update TAMPA, Fla. – As of 4 pm ET, March 2, six U.S. service members have been killed in action. U.S. forces recently recovered the remains of two previously unaccounted for service members from a facility that was struck during Iran's initial attacks in the region. Major combat operations continue. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification.

Trump’s war on Iran has now claimed six American lives in addition to many more Iranians

02.03.2026 21:07 — 👍 1538    🔁 574    💬 117    📌 57
5. GNSS / GPS Interference Environment

Significant GNSS interference continues across the Strait of Hormuz approaches, Gulf of Oman, and the
southern Arabian Gulf. Observed impacts include positional offsets, AIS anomalies, and intermittent
signal degradation.

Under current aerial threat and added navigational challenges due to congestion, degraded positional
integrity acts as a risk amplifier, increasing probability of navigational incident or miscalculation.
Recommended Measures:

* Cross-check GPS position with radar ranges and visual bearings.

+ Validate ECDIS with secondary navigation systems.

* Increase bridge manning in constrained waters.

* Treat anomalous VHF communications cautiously and verify identity.

* Include offshore activities and port operations in all threat and risk assessments.

5. GNSS / GPS Interference Environment Significant GNSS interference continues across the Strait of Hormuz approaches, Gulf of Oman, and the southern Arabian Gulf. Observed impacts include positional offsets, AIS anomalies, and intermittent signal degradation. Under current aerial threat and added navigational challenges due to congestion, degraded positional integrity acts as a risk amplifier, increasing probability of navigational incident or miscalculation. Recommended Measures: * Cross-check GPS position with radar ranges and visual bearings. + Validate ECDIS with secondary navigation systems. * Increase bridge manning in constrained waters. * Treat anomalous VHF communications cautiously and verify identity. * Include offshore activities and port operations in all threat and risk assessments.

Joint Maritime Information Center.

Overall Maritime Risk Level (Strait of Hormuz): CRITICAL

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GPS jamming in effect.

02.03.2026 20:39 — 👍 7    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0

Coordinated with Macron - sometimes that Franco-German cooperation does work - Merz announces that France and Germany have set up a 'nuclear steering group' and that DE will participaty with conventional forces in French nuclear exercises.

02.03.2026 15:45 — 👍 162    🔁 55    💬 2    📌 1
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L'Inde et le Canada annoncent des accords sur les terres rares et l'uranium L'Inde et le Canada ont conclu plusieurs accords, portant notamment sur les minéraux critiques et l'approvisionnement en uranium, ont annoncé lundi les dirigeants des deux pays, marquant un réchauffement de leurs relations.

L'Inde et le Canada annoncent des accords sur les terres rares et l'uranium

02.03.2026 15:45 — 👍 10    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0

French carrier group no longer being sent to MENA

02.03.2026 15:57 — 👍 11    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 2
02.03.2026 15:55 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Guerre d'Ukraine | 01/03/26

Secteurs :
🌐 Lyman-Zarichne🔹U260301-1126
🌐 Sloviansk-Siversk🔹U260301-1129
🌐 Ternuvate-Huliaipole🔹U260301-1133
🌐 Kamianske-Orikhiv🔹U260301-1137

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

02.03.2026 10:46 — 👍 50    🔁 8    💬 4    📌 0

Low-hanging fruit

02.03.2026 11:42 — 👍 11    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0