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Norman J Fischer

@smellsfischy.bsky.social

Really over here to vibe about Goose the Band and other music

510 Followers  |  515 Following  |  2,051 Posts  |  Joined: 14.11.2024  |  1.9912

Latest posts by smellsfischy.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft As with my Anthropic exclusive from a few weeks ago, though this feels like a natural premium piece, I decided it was better to publish on my free one so that you could all enjoy it. If you liked or f...

Exclusive: Based on documents viewed by this newsletter, OpenAI spent over $12.4 billion on inference from 2024 to September 2025. As part of its Microsoft revenue share, it sent $493.8m in 2024/$865.8m Jan-Sep 2025, implying lower revenues than previously reported.
www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/

12.11.2025 16:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 925    ๐Ÿ” 222    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 27    ๐Ÿ“Œ 37

Needs a medical alert bracelet

12.11.2025 02:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Shoeless in Seattle?

10.11.2025 23:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Thou shalt not falsify the AI bubble Serenity now, serenity now

buildcognitiveresonance.substack.com/p/thou-shalt...

10.11.2025 17:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The Democrats are like the 28-3 Falcons.

No matter how far ahead they can find a way to lose

10.11.2025 12:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Nah.

10.11.2025 03:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

agreeing to make a terrible deal while your main opponent is quite literally being boo'd on live tv by an entire stadium of people is the kind of political instinct you'd normally only find in a 3 week old dead goldfish

10.11.2025 00:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 25955    ๐Ÿ” 6451    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 250    ๐Ÿ“Œ 212

A: Because the other side is a bunch of fucking Nazis who only respond to having their balls in a vice

10.11.2025 03:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

My first show. Probably one of my most listened to tracks

10.11.2025 03:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

But how else can he build his casino there?

09.11.2025 15:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

In another era, ICE raids would be described as persecution of Catholics.

09.11.2025 02:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6364    ๐Ÿ” 1108    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 161    ๐Ÿ“Œ 36

At least Trump is coming back to DC early from his golf trip to Palm Beach so he can attend a football game while pressuring them to name the stadium after him.

Heโ€™s always working hard to improve our lives.

09.11.2025 02:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2864    ๐Ÿ” 589    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 106    ๐Ÿ“Œ 19
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The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops Michael Burry, who shorted the housing market in 2008, has bet over $1 billion that the shares of AI companies Nvidia and Palantir will fall.

futurism.com/artificial-i...

08.11.2025 23:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I get this a lot too. I don't use ChatGPT or any LLMs in my work because I want my writing to sound like me, not like the averaged-out voice of the internet. But also, writing is thinking, and thinking is a habit. I don't want to get out of that habit.

08.11.2025 13:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 524    ๐Ÿ” 89    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 12    ๐Ÿ“Œ 13

Nick Carr's book "The Glass Cage" discusses this very example. He says we go from wayfarers to passengers

08.11.2025 14:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

People seem to not grasp the double meaning of the Greek word "logos" as speech and reason.

08.11.2025 14:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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You Have No Idea How Screwed OpenAI Actually Is When you find yourself in a hole, at what point do you stop digging?

open.substack.com/pub/planetea...

08.11.2025 02:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Sam Altmanโ€™s pants are totally on fire Even for him, his latest whopper is something

Liar lies. Man bites dog.

Rinse. Repeat.

"Too Big to Fail" always means "To Big to Care"

garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman...

08.11.2025 00:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Demand would imply that there is a useful product that people would be willing to pay the money needed to cover the costs of

AI companies have a terrible conversion rate, are largely hemorrhaging money. Not great signs of a huge demand

07.11.2025 20:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Don't think there's enough demand. And AI specific gpus are not any good for most other computing functions.
Why it's unlike the cable analogy

07.11.2025 17:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

You let me know when there's any profit for anyone but NVIDIA and I will believe this.

07.11.2025 16:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Data centers in question are primarily for AI.

Not ordinary internet activity.

The real irony would be asking how many of them have chatgpt on their phones

07.11.2025 16:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

That's a word for it.

The wrong word, but definitely a word.

07.11.2025 15:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Video thumbnail

Sean Duffy calls his move to cancel flights as "really unique action"

07.11.2025 15:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 748    ๐Ÿ” 134    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 233    ๐Ÿ“Œ 88
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CEO of Personal & Pleasure, by Guerilla Toss from the album You're Weird Now

Back on my shit this morning

guerillatoss.bandcamp.com/track/ceo-of...

07.11.2025 14:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

๐Ÿ’ฏ

07.11.2025 03:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I watched the Christmas Carol today. First ten minutes are great. Scrooge making people work on Holidays? That guy would make America great again.

After that all downhill. That Tiny Tim is weak. Never will earn. Doesn't deserve the Bird.

07.11.2025 01:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Sam, is that you? ๐Ÿคฃ

07.11.2025 01:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
OpenAI Burned An Estimated $19 Billion In Cash Between 2023 and 1H 2025 - Where Did It Go?
OpenAI had $9.6 billion in cash at the end of June.

So, Microsoftโ€™s funding in 2023 was $2 billion in cash (and $8 billion in credits, but Iโ€™m not counting those), add in the $6.6 billion of cash from 2024 (iโ€™m not including the line of credit, as that would be a โ€œcash equivalent), $10 billion from SoftBank and other investors in June 2025, and we assume $2 billion in revenue in 2023, $3.7 billion in revenue in 2024, and $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025 (for a total of $28.6 billion in cash), this means that OpenAI burned $19 billion in cash from the beginning of 2023 through the end of June 2025.

Yet the reported losses are much, much smaller. 

For the sake of argument, Iโ€™m also going to leave OpenAIโ€™s $4 billion line of credit out of the calculation.

In 2024, OpenAI allegedly burned $5 billion. Through 1H 2025, it had a โ€œnet lossโ€ of $13.5 billion but an โ€œoperating lossโ€ of $6.7 billion, and the painfully-worded accounting leaked to The Information is done in such a way as to make it unclear how much of that is cash, with the hopes that you believe itโ€™s not cash burn.

$19 billion in burned cash doesnโ€™t make sense based on any reported numbers.

Even if we assume OpenAI burned $2 billion in cash in 2023, $5 billion in cash in 2024 and $6.7 billion in cash in 1H 2025, thatโ€™s $14.9 billion in missing burn to get us to the $28.6 billion total.

I guess there could be prepayments as part of its deals with Broadcom or CoreWeave, but even then, The Information had another tidbit:

OpenAI also recorded around $670 million of equity it gave to unnamed entities for providing the company with servers in the first half of 2025, compared to $1 billion in such equity compensation last year. While itโ€™s not clear which cloud provider or providers received the equity, the decision could help OpenAI minimize its cash burn as it projected it would spend $16 billion to renโ€ฆ

OpenAI Burned An Estimated $19 Billion In Cash Between 2023 and 1H 2025 - Where Did It Go? OpenAI had $9.6 billion in cash at the end of June. So, Microsoftโ€™s funding in 2023 was $2 billion in cash (and $8 billion in credits, but Iโ€™m not counting those), add in the $6.6 billion of cash from 2024 (iโ€™m not including the line of credit, as that would be a โ€œcash equivalent), $10 billion from SoftBank and other investors in June 2025, and we assume $2 billion in revenue in 2023, $3.7 billion in revenue in 2024, and $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025 (for a total of $28.6 billion in cash), this means that OpenAI burned $19 billion in cash from the beginning of 2023 through the end of June 2025. Yet the reported losses are much, much smaller. For the sake of argument, Iโ€™m also going to leave OpenAIโ€™s $4 billion line of credit out of the calculation. In 2024, OpenAI allegedly burned $5 billion. Through 1H 2025, it had a โ€œnet lossโ€ of $13.5 billion but an โ€œoperating lossโ€ of $6.7 billion, and the painfully-worded accounting leaked to The Information is done in such a way as to make it unclear how much of that is cash, with the hopes that you believe itโ€™s not cash burn. $19 billion in burned cash doesnโ€™t make sense based on any reported numbers. Even if we assume OpenAI burned $2 billion in cash in 2023, $5 billion in cash in 2024 and $6.7 billion in cash in 1H 2025, thatโ€™s $14.9 billion in missing burn to get us to the $28.6 billion total. I guess there could be prepayments as part of its deals with Broadcom or CoreWeave, but even then, The Information had another tidbit: OpenAI also recorded around $670 million of equity it gave to unnamed entities for providing the company with servers in the first half of 2025, compared to $1 billion in such equity compensation last year. While itโ€™s not clear which cloud provider or providers received the equity, the decision could help OpenAI minimize its cash burn as it projected it would spend $16 billion to renโ€ฆ

Tomorrow's Premium: Based on analysis of years of reporting, OpenAI has burned $23 billion since 2023, ending 1H 2025 with $9.6bn cash. OpenAI appears to have $9bn+ more in burn than has previously been reported.

Here's $10 off annual.

edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...

06.11.2025 21:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 539    ๐Ÿ” 88    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4

Two crappy services together at last!

06.11.2025 18:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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