Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis

Look, there are 25 ways to start a sequence (yeah, it's a lot; I wish it wasn't so many). And there about 15 things that you can do with them. Some are long, and some are short.

But if your team is to improve in 2026, something has to be different from 2025.

Much more to come. Enjoy week 2!

/end

I showed that per game so that you can now compare to your favorite team's first game in 2026.

What do you notice?

* Philly on top still, but DCU almost matched them (chaos game)
* MTL, SKC, NER at the bottom all had rough losses
* Holy crap xG from RBNY
* Toronto lost but more proactive

5/

By looking at how teams are starting their sequences (including winning the ball), seeing what they do with it, and how long to accomplish it (*if* they accomplish it), can tell us a lot about them.

Here's how teams started sequences from defensive actions and the xG from them in 2025:

4/

Possession Sequence Action "Possession 1 Team A" "Sequence 1 Interception Start Build-up Play" Intercepted pass in defensive 3rd Pass successful Tackle attempt out for throw "Sequence 2 Throw-in Start Attacking Play" Throw-in successful Pass successful Progressive carry Pass successful Clearance out for corner "Sequence 3 Corner Kick Start Corner Kick Attack" Shot Saved Keeper held ball "Possession 2 Team B" "Sequence 4 Keeper Throw Start Direct Play" Keeper throws pass successful Dribble successful Successful pass Successful progressive pass Cutback key pass Shot Missed

Recently @futi.live released their Phase of Play model, and I think we've got a lot of overlap on these concepts. It's amazing, and you should check it out: futiapp.substack.com/p/introducin...

But here is how I see sequences working in three elements:

* How started
* How executed
* How long

3/

The thing that will take us 5-10 games to figure out is: are these teams better/worse/the same as last year?

Sure, we can look at shots, xG, for/against data, and hundreds more variables, but ultimately it comes down to: What is different?

8 months ago I introduced sequences. Remember this?

2/

Friday Stat Dump: Measuring change

It seems like a bad idea to predict anything from one MLS game. Half of the teams haven't played on the road yet. A bunch of the teams that did could look better when they get some home games, get that DP player visa, or figure out how to play together.

1/

Today will be my first Friday Stat Dump thread of 2026. For these first few weeks of the MLS season, we will share the data as it is, but it will of course be too early to have much confidence in it.

This is great chance to introduce ideas or see potential changes in trends from 2025.

Chat soon!

Haven't bought a kit for 10 years because of this. If only I was a Chelsea fan...

If this was an MLS regular season game, an entire season's worth of xG overperformance for a team that finishes 5th to 8th in the West could be found here.

The Andres Cubas extension is one of the funnier nuances in MLS. Basically, if you offer an extension that isn't a full DP level to a full DP, the league can decide to average out the budget charges between the two deals.

I'm sorry, I thought soccer game noise was already too much for this community to handle.

Can they tear down the LOBINA and close that end now or is that still too much?

Shots fired, @harrisoncrow.bsky.social

That first half was an absolute paddlin’. It’s rare to see this level of dominance in a half on the road in MLS.

Lionel Messi on pace for zero goals and zero assists.

This is the way. Press and win high, play the kids.

Amahl Pellegrino is 35.

bsky.app/profile/jamo...

Been kind of an amazing night for the #PlayYourKids movement.

Ricketts the new Espinoza in San Jose. Kid has pace and some quality in the box.

I think they heard us

It’s tough for the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year to make a save when he’s behind the ball.

For a team with pace, the Quakes aren’t using it

It’s very slow-looking

But what a way to go

He heard you

You have 0.23 xG and are tied at home. Maybe calm down. Lmao.

Yes to everything the timeline is saying about the Red Bulls right now. I’m not a believer in game ones, but this is a super impressive road performance with young, hungry kids leading the way.

You can easily seeing this being a problem for the veteran teams in the East.

Nice assist and goal from STL City. I'm shocked they had it in them.

I'm sorry you went through that.

I’m so done with curling. I’m curling-ed out. Every time I turned on the Olympics it was our US women curling and they played like crap for 8 ends of out 10.