Owen Winter

Among 2024 voters, we estimate Trump is net negative in the following states he won:

Alaska -0.1
Iowa -1
Texas -2
Ohio -3
Arizona -6
North Carolina -6
Nevada -9
Michigan -10
Pennsylvania -11
Wisconsin -13
Georgia -14

Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester, listed on FindAPhD.com

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A 95% interval would make the "other race" category quite unclear

yep, annoying! we got lucky with this one last year

87% after (too few answered before to say if his approval went up or down)

Clean sweep

This week's YouGov survey gives Trump his worst approval rating (-21) since November 2017.

In our tracker, he's down to -19, lower than any point in his first term: www.economist.com/interactive/...

At this level of support things swing very quickly, though, so I imagine it'd only take a few more % points for them to be on course for a majority. Depends as well what the Con/Ref split is

It's very hard to say because we have no real idea what the Greens coalition is at 20% of the vote. If it piles up votes in left-wing cities, it will struggle to win a majority, if it manages to beat Reform in suburban seats, it'll be much easier

Have written in plenty of other places what an impressive rise the Green Party is experiencing. See e.g.
economist.com/britain/2026...

Agree on your second point but with 40 MPs they could collapse the government/trigger a new election. Wouldn’t surprise me if they’d prefer that to a second Scottish indyref, for example

I think coalitions would work in the UK (it was fine 2010-2015!) and Britain should adopt PR. It's more a comment on the politics of this exact combination of parties

That's definitely the best-case scenario (but not one that Labour would ever concede is possible)

Plus these points: SNP would make demands that are intolerable to Labour, Greens have no whipping system so can't credibly negotiate to begin with bsky.app/profile/nott...

yes! totally agree on both points

I agree but Labour is allergic to coalitions and hate Polanski. Plus the Green parliamentary party would be incredibly inexperienced

Labour, Green, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems

Just one poll, years from an election, but I wonder how the Greens will start thinking about governing if polls like this become more frequent. Hard not to conclude that Polanski trying to marshal support from five centre-left parties (any of which could collapse the govt) would be a disaster

impossible to say! it should, in theory, be big enough to overcome the bias in the electoral system. But ofc you'd expect Orban to use the full weight of the judiciary, media, electoral commission etc. Depends how much blatant interference he will tolerate, I think

Government-aligned pollsters show Fidesz with a 6pt lead while opposition-aligned and neutral pollsters show Tisza with a 13pt lead. It's the first time since Orban came to power that there's been such a clear split between pollsters

🇭🇺 Our new poll tracker shows Péter Magyar's Tisza has a six point lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz ahead of Hungary's election on 12th April www.economist.com/interactive/...

I don't think so

YouGov has the Greens in second place for the first time

Reform UK

Very clear that for Starmer, 'sectarian voting' is when British Muslims don't vote Labour, and for many others, it is just when British Muslims vote.

Labour’s response to the war in Gaza has been a gift to the Greens because it undermined trust for a chunk of Labour’s base. But the idea that the Green campaign in G&D was single-issue or that Green support will melt away when an election is called is wrong

A party can lose and still learn nothing Gaza, Sir Oink Alot and the whack analysis.

Stunningly complacent take from Tom Watson on Gorton and Denton: tomwatsonofficial.substack.com/p/a-party-ca...

I think it fails to understand the coalition of voters that just voted Green, and why. And as usual you won’t get very far by implicitly slagging off the voters. The Green voter coalition was your coalition five minutes ago.

Using boilerplate messaging that would use for George Galloway about Hannah Spencer personally & how she will approach being an MP is tin eared, graceless, implausible to the immediate audience (Labour MPs) and esp the broader one (Labour waverers/switchers) underpinned by the wrong strategy

Hannah Spencer is very impressive