I looked at xG trends over the last 10 games, remaining fixtures, and betting markets to figure out where I think everyone's relegation chances stand.
I've relaxed *a little bit* about Spurs and I am scared for Forest.
www.thetransferflow.com/p/who-s-gett...
For... 12 years now!
04.03.2026 09:33 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
I think there is not enough appreciation to how good this FT visualization is
the original is like this 👇
FWIW I think fewer open play chances and more focus on set pieces is both bad AND bad game theory and am on record as saying as much early this season.
But coaches are always risk averse, and lean that direction at every turn, even when it's dumb.
From elsewhere: People cherry-picking recent examples from MIGHT want to look back at Pulis' Stoke and various Allardyce teams from like 06-15.
The rulebook favors ATTACKERS but is NEVER reffed that way, so we had to get creative getting out of holds/generating separation from markers.
People are all anti-AI, but I'm like what if just one person could FINALLY create a modern version of SimGolf?
Myshoono!
Started, going, etc.
03.03.2026 10:19 — 👍 106 🔁 15 💬 2 📌 6
If you're in doubt about the bonafides, this was published at the start of 2017 about my work that began in 2014.
www.hudl.com/blog/changin...
I would like to tell FIFA, etc I am available for consulting on how to "fix" the set pieces and long throws "problems." This is sincere!
Zero chance any of that lot improves things without HUGE unintended consequences.
I KNOW
27.02.2026 20:36 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Somehow Andor is even better the second time.
27.02.2026 19:24 — 👍 22 🔁 0 💬 3 📌 0
10 miles, easy.
24 tacos - challenging, but I have a whole day. Hopefully they taste good.
24 beers [math begins...] Are these 33cl? 5% Do I have to not puke? I need SO MUCH MORE information before I figure out how badly I fail.
Happy Friday!
27.02.2026 07:29 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Fom Player Relations Director for the DP World Tour, to Sporting Director at Aston Villa and Commercial and Football Ops roles at Arsenal, we're excited to have Hendrik as a speaker at our inaugural conference.
10% discount is available for a few more weeks. Book now: lnkd.in/ek_Y-epG
We are excited to announce our first TTFCon Speaker
Hendrik Almstadt is in his 8th season at AC Milan, having joined the club in July 2018 where he built up the analytics function from scratch - supporting the club in various roles, including during their Scudetto-winning season in 21/22.
Always fun to talk to Jeff, and definitely a big departure from the usual TTF discussion. Lots more about gambling and sports analytics frameworks here. (And endless name and restaurant dropping... YMMV)
open.spotify.com/episode/2JQK...
I don't know who this is, but someone reviewed the Variance Betting experience and wrote it up. Not sure I've seen one of these before, but thanks for the hard work and feedback!
smartsportstrader.com/variance-bet...
Might be on the wrong side of this PSG bet...
25.02.2026 20:18 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Heel flick ending with studs in the forehead of an opposing player to concede a stoppage-time penalty to crash out, having had a 2-0 first leg lead and having come back from 3-2 to equalize late? That's a Dortmunding.
25.02.2026 19:44 — 👍 19 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
Everyone: this is straightforward, can you make sense for a little while?
Dortmund: yeah of course
Everyone you're not gonna go all Dortmund on us
Dortmund, putting on a "we are going to Dortmund like you can't believe" shirt: no! geez get off my back
I don't know who this is, but someone reviewed the Variance Betting experience and wrote it up. Not sure I've seen one of these before, but thanks for the hard work and feedback!
smartsportstrader.com/variance-bet...
You're going to keep seeing Bodo for the next 5 years
www.thetransferflow.com/p/why-bod-gl...
Hauge
-scores a massive goal in the Champions League
-runs over to the sideline to celebrate
-none of his teammates join him
-he does the Travolta meme
Everyone struggles to break down that classic Championship style of play!
24.02.2026 13:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Get round by round analysis, injury info, and our picks for the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, and English Championship.
www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
Finishing CL and Champ Analysis for Variance Betting, and I think Boro got lucky their head coach was stolen away (for a price!). They look MUCH more sustainably good under Hellberg.
If you want the analysis, our sign up link is below.
The weirdly slow pace of "oh, THAT thing is in trouble too [if at least some of these assumptions hold]" is kinda making me lean AI positive.
23.02.2026 20:23 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
New Podcast! @mixedknuts.bsky.social and @patrickbvs.bsky.social get into:
• Will Arsenal bottle it?
• Chelsea can't stop stepping on rakes
• Real Madrid's identity crisis
• Nico O'Reilly is the real deal
youtu.be/Sw9AVQ3V0kU?...
I do not need this in my life tyvm
23.02.2026 19:22 — 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
I definitely would not have made the choices they made in late plot direction, etc.
At this point I mostly hope they tell something coherent that is also beautiful.
