Ted Knutson's Avatar

Ted Knutson

@mixedknuts.bsky.social

Founder, StatsBomb, Variance Incorporated. @thetransferflow Daily Rumours newsletter https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Frmr: Brentford FC, Pinnacle, SB

7,196 Followers  |  221 Following  |  1,836 Posts  |  Joined: 07.11.2024
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Posts by Ted Knutson (@mixedknuts.bsky.social)

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Changing How the World Thinks About Set Pieces Ted Knutson explains why set piece execution is one of the most misunderstood, undervalued, and underexploited edges in the game of football.

If you're in doubt about the bonafides, this was published at the start of 2017 about my work that began in 2014.

www.hudl.com/blog/changin...

02.03.2026 15:39 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I would like to tell FIFA, etc I am available for consulting on how to "fix" the set pieces and long throws "problems." This is sincere!

Zero chance any of that lot improves things without HUGE unintended consequences.

02.03.2026 15:32 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I KNOW

27.02.2026 20:36 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Somehow Andor is even better the second time.

27.02.2026 19:24 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

10 miles, easy.
24 tacos - challenging, but I have a whole day. Hopefully they taste good.
24 beers [math begins...] Are these 33cl? 5% Do I have to not puke? I need SO MUCH MORE information before I figure out how badly I fail.

27.02.2026 07:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Happy Friday!

27.02.2026 07:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Fom Player Relations Director for the DP World Tour, to Sporting Director at Aston Villa and Commercial and Football Ops roles at Arsenal, we're excited to have Hendrik as a speaker at our inaugural conference.

10% discount is available for a few more weeks. Book now: lnkd.in/ek_Y-epG

26.02.2026 10:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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We are excited to announce our first TTFCon Speaker

Hendrik Almstadt is in his 8th season at AC Milan, having joined the club in July 2018 where he built up the analytics function from scratch - supporting the club in various roles, including during their Scudetto-winning season in 21/22.

26.02.2026 10:23 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Jeff Chats With Statsbomb Founder Ted Knutson | Sponsored by Novig

Always fun to talk to Jeff, and definitely a big departure from the usual TTF discussion. Lots more about gambling and sports analytics frameworks here. (And endless name and restaurant dropping... YMMV)

open.spotify.com/episode/2JQK...

26.02.2026 09:26 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Variance Betting Review – Profit From The Exchanges? - Smart Sports Trader In this article we take a look at Variance Betting, can it help you profit from sharp bookmakers and exchanges.

I don't know who this is, but someone reviewed the Variance Betting experience and wrote it up. Not sure I've seen one of these before, but thanks for the hard work and feedback!

smartsportstrader.com/variance-bet...

25.02.2026 19:36 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Might be on the wrong side of this PSG bet...

25.02.2026 20:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Heel flick ending with studs in the forehead of an opposing player to concede a stoppage-time penalty to crash out, having had a 2-0 first leg lead and having come back from 3-2 to equalize late? That's a Dortmunding.

25.02.2026 19:44 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Everyone: this is straightforward, can you make sense for a little while?

Dortmund: yeah of course

Everyone you're not gonna go all Dortmund on us

Dortmund, putting on a "we are going to Dortmund like you can't believe" shirt: no! geez get off my back

25.02.2026 19:25 β€” πŸ‘ 30    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Variance Betting Review – Profit From The Exchanges? - Smart Sports Trader In this article we take a look at Variance Betting, can it help you profit from sharp bookmakers and exchanges.

I don't know who this is, but someone reviewed the Variance Betting experience and wrote it up. Not sure I've seen one of these before, but thanks for the hard work and feedback!

smartsportstrader.com/variance-bet...

25.02.2026 19:36 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Why BodΓΈ/Glimt won't lose their star players this summer The Champions League underdogs have a core they can keep together.

You're going to keep seeing Bodo for the next 5 years

www.thetransferflow.com/p/why-bod-gl...

25.02.2026 16:14 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Hauge

-scores a massive goal in the Champions League
-runs over to the sideline to celebrate
-none of his teammates join him
-he does the Travolta meme

24.02.2026 21:19 β€” πŸ‘ 85    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

Everyone struggles to break down that classic Championship style of play!

24.02.2026 13:05 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Get round by round analysis, injury info, and our picks for the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, and English Championship.

www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade

24.02.2026 13:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Finishing CL and Champ Analysis for Variance Betting, and I think Boro got lucky their head coach was stolen away (for a price!). They look MUCH more sustainably good under Hellberg.

If you want the analysis, our sign up link is below.

24.02.2026 13:02 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

The weirdly slow pace of "oh, THAT thing is in trouble too [if at least some of these assumptions hold]" is kinda making me lean AI positive.

23.02.2026 20:23 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Chelsea Can't Stop Stepping On Rakes
YouTube video by The Transfer Flow Chelsea Can't Stop Stepping On Rakes

New Podcast! @mixedknuts.bsky.social and @patrickbvs.bsky.social get into:

β€’ Will Arsenal bottle it?
β€’ Chelsea can't stop stepping on rakes
β€’ Real Madrid's identity crisis
β€’ Nico O'Reilly is the real deal

youtu.be/Sw9AVQ3V0kU?...

23.02.2026 19:36 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I do not need this in my life tyvm

23.02.2026 19:22 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I definitely would not have made the choices they made in late plot direction, etc.

At this point I mostly hope they tell something coherent that is also beautiful.

23.02.2026 19:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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BRB, going to find a helicopter.

22.02.2026 15:34 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Current status for how this hockey match feels

22.02.2026 15:15 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I am stressed for both countries here in the gold medal game.

Incredible neutral spectator sport.

22.02.2026 15:04 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

That should mean more lines are off, but that has NOT been the case. Frustrating as an edge gambler where historically this was my best league!

20.02.2026 13:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Whatever update the bookies did to the Championship algo last summer was _good_.

Used to be one of my most bet on leagues, but now it's hard to find a line that isn't perfect.

20.02.2026 11:58 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Doing Variance Betting analysis today after a really nice week last week, and I am still STUNNED Arsenal were up 2-0 against a DGF* Wolves side and managed to catastrodraw.

Now to figure out the North London Derby... Sign up below.

*DGF = Don't Give a Fuck

www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade

20.02.2026 10:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Might volunteer to help fund it! Or at least give them Gemini token creds.

19.02.2026 20:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0