Aidan Horn

Absorption rate and unemployment rates by province in SA - Codera Analytics Absorption rate and unemployment rates by province in SA Blog post There has been a lot of debate about the measurement of the informal economy in South Africa.

There has been some confusion in the media about how unemployment is measured and how StatsSA is amending the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). In this Codera Analytics blog post, I discuss this, and the measurement of the informal economy in the QLFS. codera.co.za/absorption-r...

An important goal to strive for is to not have worries.

[New SALDRU Working Paper]:

Horn, A.J. (@aidanhorn.bsky.social), Leibbrandt, M., Donaldson, A. (2025). Occupational Polarization in South Africa: Evidence from the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series. (SALDRU WP 312)

opensaldru.uct.ac.za/handle/11090...

Cape Town property prices have grown at an annualized rate of 1.4% between January 2010 and November 2024, after discounting headline inflation (6.52% before discounting inflation).
econdata.co.za/user-guide/s...

...Polarization has been driven primarily by mean wage changes by occupation rather than employment changes, except for corporate managers, where there has been a significant increase in employment.

...investigating whether these trends indicate polarization in the South African labour market over the period 2000–2017. We find some evidence for polarization of aggregate earnings by occupation, reflected in a slight shrinkage in the proportion of the middle “third” of the distribution....

...with the South African Standard Classification of Occupations (SASCO) and cleaned. In our analysis, we describe the apparent trends in the proportional distribution of employment by occupation, and occupational earnings,...

A detailed description of occupational change in South Africa has been missing from the discussion of polarization of labour markets. We show how the occupations data in the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series (PALMS) can be labelled...

Horn, A.J., Leibbrandt, M. & Donaldson, A. 2025. Occupational Polarization in South Africa: Evidence from the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series. (SALDRU working paper 312). Available: www.opensaldru.uct.ac.za/handle/11090...

structural reforms to reduce government-related inflation, and public sector wage alignment. Achieving this requires a social compact between key stakeholders, facilitated by clearly outlining the benefits and addressing the short-term costs of a lower target.
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Gaps in the South African Inflation Targeting Debate
March 2025. MPRA Paper No. 124010. mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/124010/
To lower South Africa's inflation target without economic harm, the paper argues for supportive fiscal policy...
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