YouTube video by William Spaniel
Why the Witkoff Leak Is Way Worse Than It Seems
Sure, what Witkoff said according to the leak is bad. But the real story here is that there is a leak at all. Thinking about who did it and why is the interesting part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...
26.11.2025 17:43 β π 23 π 5 π¬ 3 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
The Ukraine-U.S. Peace Deal: The Good, the Bad, and the White House Power Struggle
Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
25.11.2025 22:40 β π 27 π 4 π¬ 3 π 0
Europe deleted the part about the security guarantee being canceled if Ukraine strikes Moscow or Saint Petersburg. The only way that makes sense is if they are worried about a false flag attack. Can't commit a false flag attack to cancel the guarantee if no strike of any kind cancels it.
25.11.2025 01:46 β π 15 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
One of the more interesting changes is that Europe wrote that the conflict will be "resolved" whereas Russia had it as "settled". This is worth noting because NATO's requirement for new members is to have their territorial conflicts "settled".
24.11.2025 21:44 β π 13 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
Why Europe's New Peace Deal Showcases the Power of Agenda Setting
9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia.
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
24.11.2025 21:42 β π 18 π 1 π¬ 3 π 0
Europeβs leaked peace plan from today is at least showing awareness of the situation, but it should have come a long time ago.
Also, I will cover it point-by-point tomorrow.
23.11.2025 20:05 β π 15 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
Inside the Leaked Ukraine Deal: The Kremlin's Games, Europeβs Failure, and Trump's Indifference
By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraineβs detriment.
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
23.11.2025 20:04 β π 30 π 2 π¬ 2 π 1
Update update: Senator Rounds with a delightfully vague response to the Rubio tweet.
23.11.2025 03:33 β π 19 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
Update: Rubio now says it is a U.S. plan.
23.11.2025 02:24 β π 15 π 0 π¬ 3 π 0
I think the bigger issue all of this highlights is how agenda setting is critical to manipulating the Trump administration. Russia gets this, which is why Russia likely leaked the plan (regardless of authorship). Europe is always responding, not taking the initiative.
23.11.2025 02:11 β π 17 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
If it wasnβt the White House position, then why didnβt the White House state that publicly yesterday? Trump has this thing where he just lets the grim news hang in the air as a way of prodding Europe into taking more action. But this has gone a step too far given the bipartisan rejection of it.
23.11.2025 02:09 β π 23 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
Hopefully neverβitβs only bad news if I do.
22.11.2025 22:43 β π 29 π 0 π¬ 3 π 0
Yes.
21.11.2025 22:33 β π 28 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0
There is speculation that is the case, but this is becoming an "internet truth" rather than a true truth.
21.11.2025 20:24 β π 6 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
28 Points of Pain: The Plethora of Problems with the U.S./Russia Peace Plan
Five minutes of a broad overview of exactly where we are and what is wrong here. Fifty minutes of going through the entire document, point by point, to showcase just how bizarre it is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...
21.11.2025 20:07 β π 44 π 10 π¬ 7 π 1
On the left: oil and gas attacks. On the right: attacks on electricity production and distribution. The latter only started ~6 weeks ago.
Ukraine is confident that its missiles and drones will hit their targets and has bombs to spare, to the point that it is now striking less valuable sites.
17.11.2025 20:26 β π 17 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
The Astonishing Success of Ukraineβs Air Campaign
Ukraine's air campaign has subtly added a second dimension, and it has *striking* economic and strategic implications.
youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
17.11.2025 20:22 β π 37 π 4 π¬ 2 π 1
YouTube video by William Spaniel
Is Trump about to Start a Diversionary War in Venezuela?
What the heck is underlying the deployment around Venezuela?
youtu.be/IVwmOfMSqhE
14.11.2025 16:34 β π 22 π 3 π¬ 1 π 1
Bigger yikes!
14.11.2025 04:58 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!
14.11.2025 04:45 β π 20 π 0 π¬ 3 π 0
The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
12.11.2025 16:06 β π 19 π 1 π¬ 1 π 1
YouTube video by William Spaniel
Russia Just Did Something Utterly Bizarre in Venezuela
If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses?
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
07.11.2025 18:35 β π 16 π 2 π¬ 3 π 0
Yep, and before the last couple of days it seemed like Ukraine was substituting those for refinery strikes. Perhaps not.
04.11.2025 13:28 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
04.11.2025 13:14 β π 50 π 9 π¬ 3 π 0
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
28.10.2025 00:16 β π 11 π 1 π¬ 2 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
How Ukraine Intercepts Russian Drones and Glide Bombs (And What NATO Is Doing about the Problem)
Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
21.10.2025 15:18 β π 26 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
19.10.2025 14:48 β π 31 π 8 π¬ 2 π 1
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
09.10.2025 19:52 β π 30 π 4 π¬ 1 π 0
YouTube video by William Spaniel
Ukraine's New BOPP Strategy: The Big Oil Power Play
If you want to know more about Ukraine's overall strategy here, I produced a video on the subject a few weeks ago.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...
06.10.2025 11:38 β π 14 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the UK to NATO
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST)
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, donβt reflect employer, etc.
Assistant Prof of International Affairs specializing in international political economy@ University of Pittsburgh SPIA
Assistant Professor of Int'l Relations at Carnegie Mellon University | PhD at UPenn | Former Fellow at Harvard & MIT | I study things that go boom
joshuaaschwartz.com
https://mattmalis.github.io/
Postdoctoral Researcher at ASU | Political Science PhD, UPitt | civil wars, peacemaking, peace agreements
Dad, husband, tenured political scientist in a policy school. Seeing what this is about.
Econ professor at Michigan β Senior fellow, Brookings β Intro econ textbook author β Think Like An Economist podcast β An economist willing to admit that the glass really is half full.
PhD student @PittPoliSci. Conflict Studies, terrorism and civil wars.
data, causal inference, experiments, politics
https://mattblackwell.org
"Be excellent to each other"
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Political science professor. Aspiring polyglot. Globetrotting citizen.
With Liberty and Justice for All | political science | data science | applied research. Co-founder of Pax Strategies. paxstrategies.com
Associate Prof of Politics at UVA. Author of Constraining Dictatorship. Authoritarian Politics & Democratic Erosion. http://www.annemeng.com/
International Organization is peer-reviewed journal, covering a wide range of topics in international relations and global politics.
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