Jonas Fischer

Aus vom Verbrenner-Aus: Was wird aus Webers Plan? Die EU hat sich laut EVP-Chef Weber darauf geeinigt, dass es nun doch kein Aus für Verbrenner geben soll. Der Zeitpunkt dürfte kein Zufall sein. Aber kommt es überhaupt so? Von Sabrina Fritz.

Even staunch defenders of combustion engines, like the German auto sector association VDA, seem uncomfortable with such levels of politicking, simply noting that it is now time to wait for the Commission’s proposal.

www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...

Party colleague Markus Söder (Bavaria) even topped it off, claiming this was just the beginning. Remind you, all of this is before the Commission has even tabled a proposal.

Screenshot of BILD headline

In an unprecedented move, Manfred Weber (EPP) announced yesterday night to German tabloid BILD that the 2035 CO2 targets for cars and vans (the combustion engine phaseout) would be weakened.

Thank you!

We have the data for the 2025 federal election, but did not look at it yet.

Contrary to what we expected when beginning to work on this paper, we do not find the treatment to be heterogeneous across districts with different SES, age structure, or average distance to the polling station.
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Screenshot of regression table.

We leverage this exogenous variation in voting costs to test irregularities’ impact on turnout in a DiD design. The increased waiting times, although small and unexpected, suppressed turnout by *0.73 pp.* in the affected voting districts (most conservative estimate).
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Map of Berlin's 2,257 voting districts, those with election irregularities highlighted.

Sunk cost fallacy makes effects unlikely. We look at the 2021 federal election in Berlin, where – thanks to a coincidence of administrative mistakes – in 14% of voting districts long queues formed in front of polling stations, some of which even had to close for a while.
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The costs of voting (e.g., the time it takes to go to the polling station) are usually considered small, but they do show consistent effects on turnout. So far, the literature has focused on costs that are known in advance. What happens if cost hikes are *unexpected*?
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Screenshot of title page.

I’m happy to see this short paper with @fluegeldo.bsky.social on unexpected hikes in voting costs out in @thejop.bsky.social !
doi.org/10.1086/739405
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On the other hand: This income stream to the Crown Estate has stopped anyone in Westminster touching offshore (at least for now), even as onshore got assaulted in the 2010s.

One issue with offshore in the UK is that all the income from the leases goes to the Crown Estate and not Clacton et al. Having financial benefits distributed more locally might anchor green support in these communities more effectively.

Stellantis opposed the phaseout under Tavares, but once it was a done deal didn't strive to undermine it. Now, with the leadership unclear and the US market going backward on electrification, it is unclear where they are going to stand.

Thanks, Reto!

I contribute to the political economy of climate change literature by introducing asset specificity as a determinant of business behavior, theorizing “convertible industries” (ninakelsey.bsky.social) and the “decarbonizable sector” (nilskupzok.bsky.social &
@jonasnahm.com)

Instead, those with existing plans to go all-in on battery electric supported the phaseout, and those who kept investing in combustion engines opposed it.

Scatterplot of manufacturers' market and political position.

Why do chameleons turn green? I argue that they turn green in the hope their repurposed assets provide a competitive advantage in emerging green markets. Manufacturers’ policy positions are not a direct function of their market positions.

Due to their high asset specificity, suppliers are a brown industry. They are united, do not care about carrots, and focus on averting sticks.

When they turn green, they become more accommodating of sticks (phaseout) if they get carrots, safeguarding their economic repurposing (public charging deployment) in return.

Car manufacturers are chameleons. Their low asset specificity allows them to repurpose their emissions-intense asset to seek first-mover advantages in the emerging battery electric vehicle market. Hence, we see brown and green behavior in the same industry.

Two-dimensional space of asset specificity and emissions intensity with a business typology of green, brown, and chameleon industries.

Why did some car manufacturers support the phaseout while others resisted it? And why did parts suppliers stand united in their opposition?

I introduce asset specificity as a second dimension besides emissions intensity determining businesses’ political and economic behavior.

Title page of the working paper, including abstract and keywords.

New Working Paper!

I present findings from my first PhD case study on the auto sector’s engagement with the EU phaseout of the internal combustion engine.

doi.org/10.31219/osf...

While adaptation might currently be overshadowed by mitigation, the increasing need for societies to cope with a changing climate will soon bring it to the forefront of climate politics.
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We also call for scholars to broaden the scope of their studies beyond climate change mitigation to adaptation.
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We argue that understanding climate politics as a two-dimensional conflict space is crucial, as climate policies and climate change itself can create winners and losers independently of one another.
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The aim is to demonstrate the importance of integrating climate change into the field of CPE and to highlight the contributions of CPE to our understanding of the social and political obstacles to effective climate policies.
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In this article, we review recent insights from the blooming Comparative Political Economy (CPE) literature on climate change.
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From a cultural to a distributive issue: Public climate action as a new field for comparative political economy This article reviews recent insights from the blooming Comparative Political Economy (CPE) literature on climate change with the aim to demonstrate the importance of integrating climate change into t....

Thrilled to share the publication of our review article with @hannaschwander.bsky.social on public climate action as a new field for comparative political economy in Regulation & Governance:
doi.org/10.1111/rego...
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Me too, please @profmusgrave.bsky.social Thanks a lot!

Thanks, Luke!