Worth noting Labour did do significantly worse with overseas voters compared to the domestic vote in 2023 (-9%) versus 2020 (+3%) and 2017 (+1%).
On the party vote things were less impactful: if overseas votes are excluded the Greens would have lost one seat, but Labour would have gained one so no net government/opposition change.
Turnout (note: not enrollment or eligibilie voters) of around 70,000 that would entitle "Overseas New Zealanders" to one electorate seat if we did it that way.
17 countries currently have reserved diaspora seats.
(As measured by the overseas margin as a percentage of the overall margin).
After those three there was a big drop-off. But overseas votes were a material factor in: Rongotai, Te Atatū, Te Tai Tokerau, Auckland Central, and Wellington Central.
In Mt Albert and Nelson, Labour would not have won without overseas votes and in Tāmaki Makaurau TPM would not have.
In 2023, three seats were decided by overseas special votes: Nelson, Mt Albert, and Tāmaki Makaurau.
Also happened to be the three closest races.
Only 3% of total votes, but can get as high as 8% in inner-urban seats like Wellington Central or Mt Albert.
Ashurst and Newlands – because of the high-level decisions the Commission made and the constraints it faced, both Ashurst and Newlands find themselves attached to electorates across geographic boundaries.
Wellington Greens (maybe) – the flipside of spreading their vote more evenly is it makes losing both easier too.
The Greens’ chances of another Auckland seat – While the headline Labour/National contest in Mt Albert is unchanged from the 2023 nail-biter, the price the Greens pay for the boost in Auckland Central is Ricardo Menéndez March’s chances fading.
Tangi Utikere and whoever replaces Megan Woods – Palmerston North’s outward expansion into bluer exurbs makes re-election more challenging for Utikere, and the same phenomenon flipping Wigram could have contributed to Woods’ decision to go list-only.
Technically also Judith Collins and Suze Redmayne – Both Papakura and Rangitīkei remain deeply blue, but unfavourable shifts still reduce their margins.
2023 National newcomers (Paulo Garcia, Greg Flemming, Rima Nakhle, Tim Costley) – Modestly unfavourable boundary shifts in Waitākere, Maungakiekie, Takanini, and Kapiti respectively will make defending 2023 flips harder.
Greg O’Connor – The seat lost in Wellington (Mana or Ōhāriu, depending how you slice it) is a straight -1 loss for Labour squeezing O’Connor out.
Voters elsewhere in the North Island – The cost of under-packing Auckland is leaving the rest of island over-packed and underrepresented.
Losers:
Wellington – Simply put: Wellington has one less MP. Population changes made this largely inevitable, but the Commission’s decisions exacerbate the impact.
Wellington Greens (maybe) – The adjustment between Wellington North and Wellington Bays leaves the seats more evenly balanced in Green-voter terms.
Chlöe Swarbrick – The Greens co-leader sees a fairly green seat get greener.
… and Chrises Luxon and Penk – Changes to Botany see the largest swing in the country and Kaipara ki Mahurangi sees decent National gains (not that either candidate needs it).
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
Carlos Cheung and Cameron Brewer – Changes to Mt Roskill’s boundaries of make the seat more defendable for the surprise 2023 winner, while Upper Harbour (a shock 2020 Labour win) is now out of Labour’s reach for the foreseeable.
West Auckland Labour – More efficient distribution of Labour voters will make winning all three seats (Glendene, Waitākere, and Henderson) easier.
Winners:
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
tl;dr version:
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Shocking call but Andrew Little's going to be mayor.
Joining him should be:
🔴2-6 Labour councillors (med 5)
🟢2-5 Greens (3)
🟣0-4 Moderates (2)
🔵3-7 Conservatives (4)
🟡1-4 IT/ACT Locals (1)
In your inboxes now: a brief and slight self-indulgent preview of the Wellington City Council race this weekend.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Technical note: for councils with Māori wards, the general wards are general roll only, and the Māori wards are Māori roll. For councils without Māori wards the figures are all votes.
Not a 1:1 relationship with local govt voting given much lower turnout and fuzzier partisanship outside the main centres, but gives an overall vibe.
This draws on the detailed (meshblock level) party vote estimates I'm using for the boundary adjustments work, but aggregated up to council ward level rather than new electorate level.
Of interest heading into this weekend's local elections: ward-level estimates of the 2023 general election party vote.
Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
