Tom Haddon

There will be a huge amount of fingers hovering over the button to open a short position. Just that it will be very easy to get it wrong...You would be a braver person than I to be trading this market right now.

Of course, any statement starting with "So, ignoring the war issue..." deserves to be thrown out with the gift of hindsight!

So, ignoring the war issue and (potential) shut in of QatarLNG production etc etc, a short case did exist in that the EU may well further unwind semi-mandatory storage targets over summer, plus the growing 'wave' of LNG coming to market with Golden Pass starting up in the US.

So not totally absurd.

Stolen graph (credit bottom right), but seemingly the 'market' wasn't great at predicting events last weekend, with a lot of short TTF positions in play.

Suggests at least some of the crazy price action on Monday/Tuesday was short covering, probably in quite a panicked fashion.

I think it's a driver at home, i.e. cancelling offshore wind developments (even in development) which seems to be because they think coal / gas is the best bet.

Nowhere near enough control of UK/European markets to have that effect so it's just grievance this side of the pond.

Are logistics a big driver of supermarket costs? I would have assumed it is marginal.

Supermarket / food inflation cost drivers were coming from upstream energy and fertiliser costs as far as I'm aware but really not my area to be honest.

Latest on 'tighter than a drum':

Product markets are really where the action is right now on the oil side.

When I'm in charge and the energy wars really kick off, there will be no credence for collateral damage. You're elderly neighbours will be down the lithium mines with the rest of them.

Sorry, but they are the rules.

I have a special disdain for diesel drivers, knowing the harm the dirty little beggars do. If an EV is out of your reach, fine, a Euro6 petrol is available but very very few excuses for diesels on the road these days.

Full context: not checked the veracity of the post but...

Markets are calming down, front month gas down 12% so far today (still 56% higher than Friday), which suggests it might not be as bad as the all caps approach might suggest.

The guy sat next to the empty seat bathed in light at the back - looks as if someone has already been snatched from it.

Ah, poor* diesel drivers. You may well just be about to find out how much European supply of diesel got switched from Russia to the Middle East (& India) a few years ago.

Product markets are potentially going to go tighter than a drum if disruption continues.

*tiny violin plays the hits

Or Brearley is the chosen one.

Chosen for what, I'm not sure. I didn't know [insert your deity of choice] had much of a position on energy market policy and design.

Broadly speaking: a lot.

ME disruption doesn't directly impact UK/EU security of supply (most physically goes to Asia) but it does mean that European hub prices *have* to increase to force US LNG to not fill the hole in Asia and keep coming to Europe.

US LNG is the big winner here.

So just goes to show that you can set your system up to have big optionality of supply (GB has North Sea, Norway pipeline and LNG from US, Qatar, other) but impacts can skewer even the most diversified risk management approach.

The current gas crisis (might be a mini crisis) has shown GB's corollary to the Russia/Ukraine gas crisis, given this one is LNG based while Russia was pipeline.

During Russia/Ukraine, NBP frequently traded at a discount to TTF because the GB system is a seaborne hub. Now during this one...

It's pretty warm at the moment so heating off, a light jumper and a couple of days of cold showers and it'll blow over (or up, I'm not sure).

I haven't anything to do with Hornsea 3 for ~10 months or so so might be a bit behind the times so that is very interesting.

The incremental tech developments in offshore wind are really not noticed by many people.

Classic trajectory. You start with a moderate right wing position, you start getting dopamine hits from engagement and you just happen to be on a platform that is flooded with ever more extreme right wing morons who hype you up more as you present more extreme stuff. Off you go.

GET THE SHORT POSITIONS OPEN...NOW!!!

We'll be millionaires by Friday.

Oh, he has many, many strings to his rancid bow.

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

I may have had a hand in spreading the word further as well:

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

The former energy SoS (I know, I'm not sure how either) is another of the permanently online nutters. She has real, solid form wanting to base policy on Twitter trolls:

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

Simple questions to the former SoS for Energy (how?):

1) Why wasn't there a big uplift in North Sea investment when you were in power?

2) How much oil & gas would need to be produce a tangible effect on GB energy prices? How does that compare to volumes extracted on average over the last 5 years?

Claire Coutinho has real, solid form in this area.

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

I give up. Who knows how traders interpret any of this. Just leave it to the Algorithms and go and have a lie down in a dark room would be my suggestion.

He's posted about it on his low rent social media platform. It's all crazy but should be a dampener on gas price nonetheless.

And the grey area shifts again in a different direction. This statement is may not worth the pixels it's written on (I have no idea) but I suspect it's enough for a big shift in sentiment tomorrow and prices will move accordingly.

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Au contraire...well, depending on how you personally define early spring. The fix part of the strategy should still be in place (mine is until end of March...events permitting):

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a destroyed building and says please disperse ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a destroyed building and says please disperse

Don't worry guys, it's all sorted. Gas prices have been cooling since midday, losing about 30p/th from the peak.

(note: in the not too distant past, that would have meant going to zero)