Tom Haddon

I give up. Who knows how traders interpret any of this. Just leave it to the Algorithms and go and have a lie down in a dark room would be my suggestion.

He's posted about it on his low rent social media platform. It's all crazy but should be a dampener on gas price nonetheless.

And the grey area shifts again in a different direction. This statement is may not worth the pixels it's written on (I have no idea) but I suspect it's enough for a big shift in sentiment tomorrow and prices will move accordingly.

bsky.app/profile/ship...

Au contraire...well, depending on how you personally define early spring. The fix part of the strategy should still be in place (mine is until end of March...events permitting):

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a destroyed building and says please disperse ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a destroyed building and says please disperse

Don't worry guys, it's all sorted. Gas prices have been cooling since midday, losing about 30p/th from the peak.

(note: in the not too distant past, that would have meant going to zero)

Exactly the play book during 2022 as well. Every 'new' customer, apart from those obtained through SoLR, were loss making.

Well, even SoLR customers were loss making but you had an Ofgem approved mechanism to recoup the money down the line.

Would be the situation that was feared post Russia, which was never going to happen due to alternative supply, but now this is the alternative supply (both ME and US) going dark at the same time.

Just total end times.

Absolutely. Would also mean big conflict between the UK and EU over Norwegian gas.

Would see nationalisation of gas in the system because the market could not allocate it as far I can tell - you would have whole countries being unable buy and the EU gas network would become horribly unbalanced.

The last paragraph is essentially the end of energy markets, which is fun to think about. It would mean the European system limps through summer on Norwegian flows and crash installs renewables for winter with that even being impossible to avoid severe shortages.

There would be no price signals...

a man in a suit and tie is looking at a cartoon of people holding hands in front of a rainbow and sun . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is looking at a cartoon of people holding hands in front of a rainbow and sun .

Of course, could all be over tomorrow as per the unpredictability of the situation.

Although there is one I have a suspicion about.

No tears would be shed, let's wait and see.

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

The situation has forced day ahead above futures. That means in the next iteration of the price cap, if it sticks around, you will still be selling at a loss.

Not saying it will cause supplier failures now, situation is *a lot* less prevalent now, but if it sticks for a while, will cause pain.

Remember the retail supplier failures in 22? Well that was caused by day ahead prices jumping above the price cap (in effect quarter head prices) with any unhedged suppliers forced to sell at a loss.

Guess what's happening now? Obviously ahead of current price cap (~80p/th) but...

I wonder if any short positions were open. That is a short squeeze to end all short squeezes.

We've gone again today, 40% up vs yesterday.

A doubling in price in less than 2 trading days. That is total carnage.

A load of long positions were building before this to take advantage of European filling season. Champagne corks are popping somewhere.

Glad the scribbles have made it over from Twitter.

I've seen from Kpler picking up on mysterious cases of ships 'struggling with their AIS transponders' just around the Strait (i.e. just so happening to turn them off to traverse) - the incentives to do so are getting rather large.

Although not in gas as supply is shut in for now.

With each media report (and physical effect) you could see double digit % swings in gas price.

It's a playground for those guys right now.

It's got to be said that if you are a certain kind of commodity trader, all your Christmases have come at once. The grey area of uncertainty to operate in here is massive and the potential volatility and therefore returns are massive.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards are reported to have closed the Strait via threats of firing on ships.

Which idiot said no one is going to physically close the strait?

Strap in for more commodity market fun, the escalations just keep on coming right now.

Very pretty data Viz, what provider is that?

Guessing the battery charging overnight before the sunny day isn't usually the way it goes?

Also, what was that spike towards the end of the day out of curiosity?

And we're seeing products becoming very impacted.

Ras Tanura (the biggest one, I think) in Saudi has been hit and is offline, refineries in Kuwait all over the place.

Could see significant tightness emerge in products which might widen crude spread.

Oil price (Brent) is actually pretty muted today, up about 7% vs Friday's close.

I don't really find it surprising, oversupplied before so short term risks are limited.

But, product markets might be a good place to watch. GCC mega refineries have largely closed a load of EU capacity...

Force majeure lawyers have just entered the chat...

What just happened?

Prices going exponential as per Russia/Ukraine circa 2021.

Now up 45% today, the jump from ~28% higher from Friday, up to 45% higher happened in about 15 minutes.

Crazy stuff.

Only because of the profile of the people. And of course I'm fully on board:

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

From the last time the US bombed Iran. I think it still holds.

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Spot on summary here. Pretty much applicable to every article you see on electricity prices these days which can't do more than point at one, maybe two things, and shout.

Usually focusing on the things that aren't even the bulk of the story.

Front month (Apr contract) gas now pushing a 30% increase, above 100p/th for the first time since Feb'25 if it closes there.

Power prices might be a bit peaky tomorrow...wind dropping with a lot of expensive gas to step in.

NBP front month gas price opens up in 'yikes' territory.

Very hard to say whether this sticks as stuff like this typically moves hot and then cools a bit but still, that is a move alright.