Tom Haddon

I was today years old when I figured out my laptop charger also charges my phone.

Game. Changer.

I see a lot of heat pump nerdery migrating over to Youtube.

But anyway, you have @zarch1972.bsky.social on BlueSky so what else do you need?

Depends a bit where you measured it (rolling demand, rolling curtailment etc) but now around 62% post the 'power shower' bump in demand this morning.

Not miles off but was as low as 50% during the morning peak - so everyone's right depending on where you look (ish).

LinkedIn is awful.

But sometimes it throws up a data viz like this. That's the good stuff right there.

Stolen from Magnus Hornø Gottlieb. So thanks to you, sir.

One thing, don't look at the peak storage and think 'it's potentially lower than last year so that must be bad'

It's lower because overall gas demand is lower. You don't need 100% gas storage utilisation if your UGS system is built for demand that is potentially 40% higher than now.

EU Commission now forecasting 90% underground gas storage target is easily in range* by the end of October.

I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you. Well, not that shocked.

(*it is only undercut by limited possibility of *very* cold October in the downside outlook)

Ah, in that case I should retract. Following your clue I can see they are not trackers. They are just bigger older gen modules (less efficient) so the height profile looks a bit strange in the photo.

'Modern' PV looking a lot different now with bi-facial etc in play (e.g. Cleve Hill)

My guess is classic misunderstanding that shipments will typically be higher each year than installs because of supply chain and warehousing in respect to a future growing market plus the need for ~0.3%* global fleet replacements.

The double bit is a bit off mind.

*Finger in air

What's with the trackers in the picture?

You would never install them in the UK, but they stand >twice as high as fixed and make it look a lot worse (in respect to these 'objections')

My third message crossed in the post with that one. Will definitely happen, it's being built now.

The clue is everyone who is very angry with constraint costs stop their analysis in 2030...

The UK network operator is building several GWs of new capacity between the two areas (offshore) so relief to an extent is coming, but will be 2030s rather than by 2030.

That's not to say batteries won't help round the margins. It's happening already with ~1GW deployed (or being built) around the most constrained bit of the UK network - broadly between Scotland and England.

But on a GWh basis, it's peanuts.

Not quite the same problem though. California has dramatic solar peaks in generation, which batteries are perfect for shifting from say 1pm to 7pm.

The UK's problem is wind where 'peaks' last for hours if not days. Only thing that solves that is transmission capacity.

Erm. Gonna have to disagree there, at least in the sense there isn't going to be the transmission capacity to get it past the network constraints until after 2030.

It will be curtailed off. Lots.

If you hop up like that to get your CBE off my Dad, I'm going to have you!

Don't be so hard on yourself. You have grown some lovely concrete there.

No, it's definitely not.

But it's a theoretical way you could *promise* it, even if you never had any intention of fulfilling the promise (also because inherently cheaper Norwegian piped gas will fill more storage needs as absolute demand levels continue to fall).

I would have to guess but:

1) Data is waaaaay out of date
2) God knows how they define 'industrial' - probably on some arbitrary usage figure
3) They don't calculate it in the way that even moderately large consumers procure electricity i.e. flexible and engaged

Did you go on the recent DESNZ REMA update webinar?

The overall theme of "ok, regional pricing was too disruptive to investment but locational signals are important so we are looking at more flex in TNUoS" put some cats amongst a lot of pigeons.

TNUoS is the next battleground.

On the solar PV work, I have direct access to bills (as we need to model the commercial feasibility) and while I can't post those, this will help actually tell you where B2B power pricing is at the moment.

(note: wholesale prices down since April).

Source: brownlowutilities.co.uk/non-commodit...

I've said this before...I have worked with a lot of businesses on solar PV recently and not one has paid anywhere near this amount.

Spot power price is ~8p/kWh right now, and non-commodity costs (on a pass through) are ~11p/kWh (incl CCL).

So to exclude CCL and get to 25p/kWh is fantasy.

Now, I'm not saying this is going to hit the crazy targets the 'agreement' includes because ultimately filling targets are being loosened all the time, but in theory it does open an avenue for the EU to buy American LNG directly/indirectly.

Is that strictly true? There are some state owned gas storage sites that, in order to comply with EU mandated filling targets, can go out to the market to procure gas.

THE in Germany, while a private entity, can essentially go out with government money to buy gas if mandated to do it by the EU.

That's the one. A technical due diligence to be exact.

So technical it made me never want to work on one ever again.

I know about this as I recently came off an offshore wind DD project. Endless conversations about corrosion which were about justifying a 45 year asset life (probably more).

It was so boring and unrelated to my background it literally forced me to change jobs, but I've spent a lot of time on it.

You would think a guy who is saying that oil and gas from the North Sea is the way to go (which doesn't exist), wouldn't take this line. There are NCS platforms that happily lived out there corrosion free(ish) for 40+ years.

What does he think monopiles are made out of? Sawdust?

That's right. I remember a Dignitas gag now.

I can't even remember which think tank it was (more accurately I don't really care) but I bet my bottom dollar it's still pumping out energy market related stuff focused on a certain 'agenda'.

There was the particularly funny one that a bogus 'think tank; had messed up MW with MWh and accidentally calculated that renewable energy was almost infinitely expensive.

No matter @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org pointed out before embargo some nonsense was coming, it still made headlines!

You see this all the bloody time in energy. Almost always made up nonsense but once they get the headline it's job done. It's imprinted in the public consciousness.

No level of fact checking and 'pointing out' changes that. They just move onto the next one to repeat the process.