Christoph Gisiger

Nvidia results always trigger a high alert day for Law of Large Numbers usage violations.

LoLN doesn't describe the difficulty of an already huge value to continue growing quickly.

Yes, "everyone" uses it in this way. Yes, Investopedia capitulated and blessed this misuse. Doesn't make it right.

Which creative writing project will tank the stock market today? Anyone got an early draft they want us to look at?

Victory or defeat

‘While markets are focused on the risk of disintermediation, the more immediate story is one of inflation, as AI capex drives scarcity in AI commodities and data center build out lifts construction hiring.’ www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...

I remain confused about what the market thinks is best for $NLFX - win or lose the the WBD war?

anyway low tick since Oct '24 today

"Despite its year-to-date losses the S&P 500® Top 10 Index, with heavy exposure to Big Tech, is seeing a surprising decline in realized volatility, driven by a steady drop in correlations and rising dispersion among mega-caps."

-S&P Global Vörös

History of western consensus macro econ thought through an FX lens.

A reminder about what felt so certain, but didn't turn out (Japan beating out the US) and what felt so uncertain that seems almost laughable today (that the Soviet economy could beat the US).

Poof… and it’s gone.

'Revenge Of The Dinosaurs' Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. CHART Perh...

NEW POST: ‘Revenge Of The Dinosaurs’ thefelderreport.com/2026/02/14/r...

Title: A Valentine’s Day experiment In an effort to test the efficacy of cupids arrows of desire. A placebo group is shot with regular arrows. Their injuries range from moderate to sever. Unexpectedly, romances struck up in hospital and lawyers’ waiting rooms create a "romance ratio" similar to that of magic arrows. However, once the cost of compensation claims is factored in, it is decided to discontinue.

A Valentine’s Day cartoon for @newscientist.com

As I go through my charts it's amazing how many tech stocks have given back the entire rally off the April lows last year.

hold on i gotta take this

‘The problem is that some companies that might otherwise lure a software-industry treasure hunter may have put themselves off-limits. That’s because a buyer would have to pay not just for the company’s listed shares, but for the stock awarded as pay for employees, sometimes in very large amounts.’

‘Gold has been a popular trade for a long time. Tech has been a popular trade too. Then with tech everyone gets spooked by AI, and people need to sell their winners just to raise cash and stay afloat. As they like to say, in a crisis, all correlations go to one.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

‘Australia’s export-driven economy stands out as the prime beneficiary of a potential 2000s-style commodity supercycle, with the Aussie dollar this year’s best-performing major currency.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Only one who got the ball into the end zone was Bad Bunny

Bad Bunny now has more rushing yards than the New England Patriots

Another Changing Of The Guard Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. STAT Histo...

NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...

‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

Blue Owl, Ares Lead Private Market Firms Bashed by Software Risk www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Eighteen years ago today:

@newyorkgiants.bsky.social #SBXLII

'There Is No Training For This' Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. QUOTE The ...

NEW POST: ‘There Is No Training For This’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/31/t...

“Let Sam announce how much he’s going to raise — it’s for him to decide. But we will definitely participate in the next round of financing because it’s such a good investment.” -Jensen Huang www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Veronika is an inspiration to us all.

A reminder that the “weaponise US Treasuries” playbook is outdated: no single foreign entity has meaningful market share, and foreigners are now far less important in government funding. Also (since at least Bagehot’s day), if central banks have one role, it is to act as buyers of last resort.

'The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business' Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. QUOTE “The...

NEW POST: ‘The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/17/t...

Is wishful thinking one of AI's blind spots too?

Gemini has Davos 2026 over with already...

Also new in v1.114 today: cashtags! Like hashtags, but for stocks.

Tag your posts with $AAPL, $NVDA, whatever, then tap to see everyone else's equally unqualified analysis!

Wall Street's start to 2026 is going exactly according to plan. Are investors too confident? Not only is the S&P 500 up 1.7% but the tape has broadened just as nearly every investor has been demanding, with the equal-weighted S&P ahead by almost twice as much.

Wall Street’s start to 2026 has been like the scripted first drive in a football game, the offense in rhythm with a balanced attack to take an early lead.

Everyone expects a "run it hot" economy and the market is rushing to price it in.

Can it stay this easy?

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