Sinem Adar

‘It means missile defence on datacentres’: drone strikes raise doubts over Gulf as AI superpower Iran’s targeting of commercial datacentres in the UAE and Bahrain signals a new frontier in asymmetric warfare

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

“Whether there was a military impact is unclear – but the strikes swiftly brought the war directly into the lives of 11 million people in the UAE, nine out of 10 of whom are foreign nationals. Amazon has advised its clients to secure their data away from the region.”

Iranian strategy to raise the costs of this war for the US and its allies in the Gulf and in Europe seems to be working.

This week was dire. Very tough for scholars from MENA who are studying/working abroad.

I am continually impressed by those who join our Zoom sessions despite so many challenges. This week a frequent participant defended her PhD dissertation!

Next week we begin Week 150. Email me if interested

Three days ago, Israel ordered the south evacuated. Two days ago, they did the same to the southern suburbs. That’s more than one million people. Some, the most vulnerable, are sleeping rough by the sea or on sidewalks. Today, it is raining. War harms the poor the most.

Hürmüz Boğazı Krizi ve Petrol Piyasası Hakkında Bilmeniz Gereken Her Şey Not: Yazıyı dün bitirebildim, yazıda yazdığım bazı fiyatlamalar ve olaylar gerçekleşti, bununla birlikte bu yazıda yalnızca senaryo analizi yapmaya çalıştım, yazıda bahsettiğim üçüncü faza geçeceğimiz...

Tarihsel bir perspektifle bakıldığında, 1973 Arap Petrol Ambargosu sırasında da piyasadan günde kabaca 5 milyon varil çekilmiş ve bu durum küresel ekonomiyi yıllarca sürecek bir stagflasyon sarmalına sürüklemiştir."

substack.com/home/post/p-...

Dolayısıyla burada piyasadan çekilen 5 milyon varil küresel sistemden her gün kalıcı olarak eksilen fiziksel üretimdir.

Bu iki kilit OPEC üreticisinin lojistik mahkumiyet nedeniyle piyasaya süremediği ham petrol miktarı toplandığında (Irak’tan 2-3 milyon, Kuveyt’ten 2.5-3 milyon), net fiziksel üretim kaybı doğrudan günlük 5 ila 6 milyon varil bandına oturmaktadır.

birkaç gün içinde 3 milyon varile ulaşacağını resmen deklare etmiştir. Eş zamanlı olarak Kuveyt, terminal boşluklarının dolmasıyla birlikte günlük yaklaşık 2.8 ila 3 milyon varillik üretiminin neredeyse tamamını durdurma eşiğindedir.

"Hürmüz Boğazı’nın fiilen kapanmasının en doğrudan ve sarsıcı sonucu, yukarıda detaylandırılan fiziksel üretim kesintileridir. Irak, halihazırda 1.5 milyon varillik bir kesintiye gitmiş olup, depolama alanlarının tamamen dolmasıyla bu rakamın+

Iranian strategy to raise the costs of this war for the US and its allies in the Gulf and in Europe seems to be working.

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions Replenishing stockpiles depends on vulnerable critical mineral chains.

but how many precision weapons and interceptors can be fired on days two, 20, and 200, and how quickly industry can replace them. This turns a battlefield question into an industrial one, and an industrial one into a minerals-and-processing question."

foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...

"The broader point is that the West’s theory of military readiness is incomplete. As the long conflict in Ukraine has already illustrated, war is being costed in the wrong units. The relevant metric is not merely how many launchers there are at the start of the war,

Good plan, there’s no way that the US would ever betray Kurds who fought on their behalf, or that Turkey would be upset by and seek to frustrate any US-backed Kurdish forces, or that an invasion from Iraq would trigger Iranian nationalist opposition. None of those things have ever happened.

The gap that's opened up between the military capacity of the United States (unmatched in human history) and its political and diplomatic capacity (none) is frightening

After Khamenei: What Iran, and the World, Face Next "Long ago, the Islamic Republic learned to distribute coercive power across institutions to enable the state to survive crises," writes Hamidreza Azizi

elites to negotiate the political future from a position of institutional strength rather than exposed vulnerability. In Tehran, continuity is the strategy."

time.com/7381954/iran...

"These dynamics explain why the Islamic Republic has not appeared leaderless, despite losing the man who was, for decades, its most powerful figure. The system’s immediate objective is to preserve coherence—buying enough time for

Tweet on X by Amir Kiyae reads: Strikes on Iran appear to have hit the home where opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have been held under house arrest - both are reported safe, but their residence was damaged. Former President Ahmadineiad's home was also targeted. Israel has stated it is targeting Iranian leaders "past, present, and future." This follows previous Israeli strikes on Evin Prison. Draw your own conclusions,

Home of reformist opposition leaders from 2009 Green Movement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard was also hit by Israeli/US strikes. They have been under house arrest by the regime for over a decade.

Some immediate thoughts on possible implications of the current US/Israel-Iran war for Turkey:

1) For Turkey, the security and economic risks of a prolonged war are significant. These include rising energy prices amid ongoing domestic economic fragility, potential declines in tourism revenues,

International Reactions to Military Strikes on Iran: A Tipping Point for the UN Charter? Can the legal cornerstone of the current international order that is designed to maintain peace and security hold following Iran strikes?

The trouble is, the long-term cost of giving up on Art 2(4) of the UN Charter may be even higher."

www.justsecurity.org/132773/us-ir...

And for the European Union, with an aggressive Russia on its doorstep and a defense system that will take many years to wean itself off U.S. dependency, the costs of standing up for the UN Charter at this moment are high.

"In the face of Trump’s wide-ranging threats and actions against any who oppose him (tariffs, territorial seizure, invasion and leadership abduction), it is hardly surprising that States like Canada might pull their punches.

The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.

So, who stands to win?

Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵

This is a real source of anxiety for the regime in Turkey. It didn't start with Iran but the situation in Iran amplifies it.

Interesting.

One way to think about this, like Ukraine, is that Turkey's main geopolitical asset is its geography--which is also its main geopolitical weakness

Thread 👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾

Excellent and comprehensive thread about the implications for Turkey 👇

👌Very sharp overview of how close the US/Israel-Iran war hits NATO member and thawing EU candidate Turkey. Energy, security, regional leverage - this matters far beyond the region. Curious to see her deeper take on what it means for #TürkiyeEU relations. #EurSky 🇪🇺 #iran

7) Ultimately, the trajectory of Turkey–Israel competition - or accommodation - may become a defining variable not only for the evolving regional order, but also for Turkey’s domestic political trajectory. External geopolitical alignments and internal regime debates are increasingly intertwined. END