Sinem Adar

No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran Elevating Erdogan into an existential threat is dangerous and self-defeating for Israel.

My latest: No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran

Gift link: foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/09/i...

For instance 👇

Today, Ekrem Imamoglu stands trial on the most Kafkaesque allegation of establishing a " criminal organisation for illicit gain." The most threatening political rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan allegedly sought, through this purported network, +

Turkey's Halkbank, U.S. Justice Department agree to resolve criminal charges, judge says The U.S. Justice Department has agreed ​to resolve its long-running criminal prosecution of Turkish state-run lender Halkbank , the judge overseeing the case said in a court filing ‌on Monday, without...

, opens new tab, the judge overseeing the case said in a court filing ‌on Monday, without providing further details of the deal."

www.reuters.com/business/fin...

"The U.S. Justice Department has agreed ​to resolve its long-running criminal prosecution of Turkish state-run lender Halkbank (HALKB.IS) [on fraud, money laundering and ​conspiracy charges for allegedly helping Iran evade American economic sanctions.]

"A ballistic munition launched from Iran and entering Turkish airspace was neutralized by NATO air and missile defence assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean."

www.msb.gov.tr/SlaytHaber/0...

I would not be surprised if the Turkish deployment of F-16s to Northern Cyprus and sending of naval assets by Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and France to the island are coordinated events among the European components of NATO.

Good thread about Ekrem Imamoglu's (arrested presidential candidate of the main opposition party in Turkey) trial and what's at stake for the regime.

Excellent thread on what is at stake as Istanbul's jailed mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, stands trial in Turkey.

Thanks, Howard!

Is the Trial of Erdogan’s Top Rival More About Corruption or Politics?

Today, the long-expected trial of Erdogan's main political rival begins in Istanbul.

The NYT has a good review of the political stakes of the Imamoglu trial, including comments from @sinemadar.bsky.social

Gift link

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/w...

Polls consistently register deep dissatisfaction with economic conditions, and the public's appetite for political change has not disappeared – it has simply found no adequate vessel. AKP dominance, for now, looks solid. Whether it will prove equally durable is another matter.

the main opposition party is legally besieged, politically isolated, and structurally unable to force a confrontation on its own terms. Yet the verdict on Turkish society is less clear.

Internal resignations and factional tensions compound the pressure. Ankara's lawfare has been less a single strike than a sustained campaign of institutional attrition.

The AKP government might not have succeeded in co-opting the CHP leadership; its domination test is working, however:

The past one year has been one of intensive lawfare. İmamoğlu has not been the only target. Employees of the Istanbul Municipality, numerous CHP mayors across the country, and the party leadership itself have been detained, brought to trial, or placed under investigation.

to enrich himself, seize control of the Republican People's Party (CHP), and secure his election as president. The charge sheet reads less like an indictment than a testament to what Ankara fears.

Today, Ekrem Imamoglu stands trial on the most Kafkaesque allegation of establishing a " criminal organisation for illicit gain." The most threatening political rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan allegedly sought, through this purported network, +

I would not be surprised if the Turkish deployment of F-16s to Northern Cyprus and sending of naval assets by Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and France to the island are coordinated events among the European components of NATO.

Oder weiter südlich über Saudi-Arabien, Oman und Indien nach Südostasien und Australien. "Mehr Möglichkeiten gibt es zurzeit nicht, um sicher nach Asien zu kommen", sagte Carsten Spohr während seiner Pressekonferenz."

www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...

"Geblieben sind deshalb nur zwei schmale Luftkorridore, die aus Europa über die nördliche Türkei, Armenien und Aserbaidschan nach Turkmenistan, Afghanistan und Pakistan führen.

Wahrheit zum internationalen #Frauentag 2026.

Iraqi forces coordinate with KRG to secure Iran border QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Iraq’s Border Guard Forces said on Saturday they are coordinating with Kurdish security forces in the Kurdistan Region to

"Iraq’s Border Guard Forces said on Saturday they are coordinating with Kurdish security forces in the Kurdistan Region to secure the border with Iran, denying reports of infiltration from Iraqi territory."

npasyria.com/en/136025/

Drone, missile attacks hit Erbil, Sulaimani sites, kill two Drone and missile attacks targeting sites in the Kurdistan Region’s Erbil and Sulaimani provinces late Saturday and early Sunday killed two people and wounded others, authorities said.

"Several drones targeted the Peshmerga Unit 70 Command, affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), in Sulaimani.
[..]
Two additional drones targeted areas near the United Nations headquarters and the Turkish consulate in Sulaimani city."

www.rudaw.net/english/kurd...

‘It means missile defence on datacentres’: drone strikes raise doubts over Gulf as AI superpower Iran’s targeting of commercial datacentres in the UAE and Bahrain signals a new frontier in asymmetric warfare

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

“Whether there was a military impact is unclear – but the strikes swiftly brought the war directly into the lives of 11 million people in the UAE, nine out of 10 of whom are foreign nationals. Amazon has advised its clients to secure their data away from the region.”

Iranian strategy to raise the costs of this war for the US and its allies in the Gulf and in Europe seems to be working.

This week was dire. Very tough for scholars from MENA who are studying/working abroad.

I am continually impressed by those who join our Zoom sessions despite so many challenges. This week a frequent participant defended her PhD dissertation!

Next week we begin Week 150. Email me if interested

Three days ago, Israel ordered the south evacuated. Two days ago, they did the same to the southern suburbs. That’s more than one million people. Some, the most vulnerable, are sleeping rough by the sea or on sidewalks. Today, it is raining. War harms the poor the most.

Hürmüz Boğazı Krizi ve Petrol Piyasası Hakkında Bilmeniz Gereken Her Şey Not: Yazıyı dün bitirebildim, yazıda yazdığım bazı fiyatlamalar ve olaylar gerçekleşti, bununla birlikte bu yazıda yalnızca senaryo analizi yapmaya çalıştım, yazıda bahsettiğim üçüncü faza geçeceğimiz...

Tarihsel bir perspektifle bakıldığında, 1973 Arap Petrol Ambargosu sırasında da piyasadan günde kabaca 5 milyon varil çekilmiş ve bu durum küresel ekonomiyi yıllarca sürecek bir stagflasyon sarmalına sürüklemiştir."

substack.com/home/post/p-...

Dolayısıyla burada piyasadan çekilen 5 milyon varil küresel sistemden her gün kalıcı olarak eksilen fiziksel üretimdir.