Joseph Hefner

Here's my favorite angle of the Trevor Lawrence goal-line fumble. You can see the green of the field between the ball and the line when he loses control.

Turnover regression favoring the Chiefs so far...

Injury Report for Chiefs @ Jaguars

Chiefs Omarr Norman-Lott with a late week DNP, making him questionable for the game.

Jags 2nd string LB Yasir Abdullah is out. Starter DE Travon Walker is questionable (wrist injury), as is 2nd string OT Wyatt Milum.

Gamecard for MNF: KC @ JAX!!

Chiefs favorites here with a 63.7% win probability.

Jax has lived off of turnovers, while the Chiefs have only turned it over once this season. Which team sees regression in this game?

This is a game of strength against strength, as KC O goes against JAX D.

I think it’s maybe getting a retread QB with the last name Jones. It didn’t work out well for Cardale, but he didn’t get retreaded.

Gamecard for MNF: KC @ JAX!!

Chiefs favorites here with a 63.7% win probability.

Jax has lived off of turnovers, while the Chiefs have only turned it over once this season. Which team sees regression in this game?

This is a game of strength against strength, as KC O goes against JAX D.

Injury Report for Chiefs @ Jaguars

Chiefs Omarr Norman-Lott with a late week DNP, making him questionable for the game.

Jags 2nd string LB Yasir Abdullah is out. Starter DE Travon Walker is questionable (wrist injury), as is 2nd string OT Wyatt Milum.

I usually download and read a book (or three) on my phone, because it's a lot more difficult to lug physical books around with me.

Also, checking out ebooks from the library on demand is a top 10 human invention.

Brashard Smith film review; The Chiefs' rookie needs a larger role as he develops Smith saw more action in Week 4. Let's look at where he showed his value and development in small moments, and where he can improve.

Brashard Smith's playing time and role is slowly growing in the Chiefs' offense.

I wrote about where he's showing promise, where he needs to keep developing, and why Reid should continue to expand his role even as that happens.

mnchiefsfan.substack.com/p/brashard-s...

Skill Player Motion Frequencies

y-axis: Motion at the snap
x-axis: Pre-snap motion

Graphic showing NFL Week 5 betting odds by matchup. Games are grouped by day of the week and listed chronologically. For each game, the away team logo appears on the left, followed by a stacked bar showing win probability percentages for both teams, then the home team logo, the betting spread for the favorite, total points line, and expected scores based on the totals and spread.

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟱 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯

🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: DET -10.5 @ CIN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: MIA -1.5 @ CAR
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: NE @ BUF (49.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: MIN @ CLE (36.5 total)

What game are you watching this week? 👀

Never too early...

It’s never too early

2026 Draft Pick Probabilities

Target Percentage by Position
(weeks 1-4)

Nohl Williams film review; The Chiefs rookie CB is turning (and busting) heads In a small sample size, Williams has looked promising. And physical.

I wrote about Nohl Williams by popular demand.

The Chiefs' rookie CB has impressed with his physicality. I looked at every snap he's played the last 2 games and found smarts and good feet, too.

Small sample size alert, but... did they do it AGAIN?

mnchiefsfan.substack.com/p/nohl-willi...

Once again, thanks to @ftnfantasy.com for providing the participation data for this graphic.

Defense:

Cook the only DB pulled early. Nohl Williams with a lot of work in the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Gillotte in on two of the 4th down tries, both of which failed.

Chiefs Week 4 Pillboxes!!

The return of Worthy relegated Thornton to a much smaller role.

Brashard Smith with his highest snap count of the season. He got the ball on 50% of this snaps, too. 4 rushes, 4 targets.

We saw 6 OL three times, and 7 once, on the 4th down conversion!!

If the 49ers want to add a fourth former Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl champion WR, Mecole Hardman Jr. was recently cut from the Packers practice squad.

I wonderd what teams most often reward their quality draft picks with early (3rd year) extensions.

No surprise the Eagles have the most early extensions since 2018.

The Bills rank second with 9 extensions, with players drafted later on average and earning a lower median percentage of the cap.

ggplot2 styling This post discusses one function in ggplot2: `theme()`. Find out about the glamour of graphics in this deep-dive article.

🎨 Theming got a huge overhaul with the latest #ggplot2 release. In honour of that @teunbrand.bsky.social has written a comprehensive deep-dive into styling your plots, covering both old and new functionality. Grab a coffee and dive in!

#rstats

Please understand I am not saying they have an easy schedule, therefore they will win the Super Bowl. They still have to beat KC in the AFC Championship game, after all.

It's just all that stuff goes into the SB odds calculus.

And even with that, their odds are still less than 1 in 5.

Yes. This is a big reason why their SB odds are so high. They have a very easy schedule, and are also a top team. That means their odds of getting the 1 seed, bye week, and easiest path are very good.

That's all super impactful for the future SB winners.

Chiefs Coverage Deployment

Week 4 coverage and full season coverage.
Not a ton of difference between the two. Mostly players are staying in the same roles they've had all season.

Christian Roland-Wallace nearly doubled his season snaps in week 4, but kept the same basic safety role.

a dart board with a red dart in the center and the numbers 1 through 20 on it ALT: a dart board with a red dart in the center and the numbers 1 through 20 on it

There's a chance!!

I mean, it's basically just a Dart throw....through a hurricane...from a ships deck in that hurricane...at a target a mile away....

but there's a chance!!!

My friend @doug-analytics.bsky.social is a fan of one of those teams (I won't say which one), so I will refuse to acknowledge this true statement in solidarity with him.

They did, after all, just take down the undefeated Chargers!

Worthy was back, and that changed up some of the WR roles for the Chiefs.

Week 4 Receiver Usage vs Full Season Usage

Thornton went from a 64% wide rate to just 17.6% with Worthy back.

JuJu and Kelce's wide/slot rates also shifted by 10+ percent. More, actually, because that data includes week 4.

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills stay on top, Ravens with a massive fall (-4.5%!!). Might be the biggest movement I've seen since I started tracking this.

The Chargers long reign as kings of the AFC West is over after exactly one week, as the Chiefs overtake them in Super Bowl odds.

No no, that's the guy who didn't know you had to cross the end zone line to score a touchdown!

I see how you got them confused, though!

😂 🤣

If I were to pick any current NFL player to not know that games could end in a tie, Pickens would definitely be at the top of the list.