Tom Edwards

AKA the rapture for nerds

Wouldn't GDP trend to 0 in a post scarcity tech singularity too?

Unlikely it will all go ahead, but impact on generators would be positive, higher prices, lower TNUoS and Locational Loss Factors. Reduced B6 boundary flows would limit constraint payments and negate negative press.

CPS goes on for another year

It just shifts costs from one area to another, customers will be only marginally better off, while diluting the cashout signal which means less DSR, less storage, so ultimately consumers will suffer from higher prices driven by keeping gas on the system.

If you want to give a battery developer nightmares, show them the CBA for P462. The modification proposes to remove subsidy costs from the BM, reducing the number of negative prices in cash-out and feeding through into whoelsale markets. The initial CBA results show a near 60% reduction in revenues!

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I dont feel so bad about running my 1060 now

You'll need a BEGA

No one tell them how much the cost of gas turbines has gone up...I reckon they're up about £35/MWh on an LCOE basis on a couple of years ago. That would put them on a par with new build offshore wind now even without the Carbon.

If its trained on todays dispatch decision making how will it be any better? participants want a neutral optimal decisions making tool, probably not going to be an LLM.

Cost of new gas generators has been going up, so its not clear this is a cost effective option, compared to picking another market to build your LLM abacus in.

Nvidia says Britain will have to burn gas to power technology revolution The company chief executive Jensen Huang says the UK’s costly electricity means new data centres will rely on fossil fuel as well as renewable energy

Unlikely any new CCGTs can be built before 2030, so its a lifeline for aging gas plant, or they build much less efficient OCGTs or Recips.

www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...

Removing the ETS will increase CfD prices as well by impacting the merchant tail.

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Read it now! How much of the saving was from removing UK ETS and CPS vs. redispatch of IC/gas plant?

I probably need to read the paper! Sounds like a traders dream though, buy sell power to NESO when they dispatch gas and then buy it from ZMC at lower cost?

Are ICs buying power at the NESO gas market stage or the post gas ZMC market? Both, I Guess?

Does the CfD reference price change, without a fuelled gen in the merit order the CfD would default to no payments most of the time?

IMO fixing the dispatch issues with the BM and using batteries better erodes the capability of CCGTs to dictate prices at the margin, and what about the smaller plant like Recips, surely they just see the CCGTs bidding at SRMC and become the new marginal plant?

Gas plant is very competetive, their margins aren't enormous, will the government be running these gas plant without any margins to pay for network charges or rent?

Sorry, gas would be 15% of the generation mix, but it would be running 57% of the time. So how is this a reserve? These reserve plants would still need to recover costs, how does this break the link to gas prices? The only way to break that link is to replace gas.

But we would still need the gas plant to run 15% of the time by 2028 its hardly a reserve. What about the reciprocating engines, should they also be nationalised? Who buys the gas?

UK green energy groups warned they would lose subsidies under a Reform government Deputy leader Richard Tice says rightwing populist party will reassess ‘all net zero commitments’ due to high costs

www.ft.com/content/5c5b...

UK green energy groups warned they would lose subsidies under a Reform government Deputy leader Richard Tice says rightwing populist party will reassess ‘all net zero commitments’ due to high costs

This will have no impact on AR7 : a) unlikely these companies will rise to the bait b) they are protected by CiL provisions in the CfD contract which is a private law contract between the state and the developer c) ISDS are a nasty thing to get on the wrong side of

Just waiting for the inevitable article on the perfidious injustice of Mandatory Half Hourly Settlement.

Here is the consutlation response document assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687654...

The government now intends to offer 20 years CfDs to Offshore and Onshore wind, and Solar PV. Key impacts here are lowering the overall CfD price by spreading the support out longer and reducing the merchant tail risk (esp. important following REMA).

Not sure how to balance TNUoS reform, its already got a wide locational signal, but making it more predictable & sending a higher locational signal work at cross purposes. The DC model is sensitive to capacity changes, so presumably bin that? But then how do you objectively set the locaitonal signal

Government sets out reforms to create a fair, secure, affordable and efficient electricity system Government confirms reforms to the national pricing electricity market that will create a fairer, cheaper, more secure, and more efficient energy system.

www.gov.uk/government/n...