Kate Mackenzie

Bar chart showing the year in which various countries can replace US export markets. About 70 countries including Australia can do it in 2025; 140 can do it by 2039. In 2026 is Russia, Turkey; in 2027 is China, in 2028 is Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia. Germany and Italy are in 2030.

How long it takes various countries to replace US export markets.
Source: www.ft.com/content/1efd... originally: globaltradealert.org/reports/amer...

Maybe I’m still assuming there’s any coherence there, or indeed any thought beyond near-term dominance.

India Aghast at Donald Trump’s ‘Dead’ Economy Jibe, 25% Tariffs Shock, dismay and angst swept across India as businesses, policymakers and citizens digested US President Donald Trump’s sharp remarks and a surprise 25% tariff rate earlier this week.

One of the many perplexing things is: why punish India & humiliate Modi? A massive & fairly powerful country that restrains anti-US sentiment within the BRICS & other alliances www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Incredible footage of the march across Sydney Harbour Bridge #FreePalestine

A haha I just heard the police commissioner saying the helicopter was out there “sweeping the crowd, keeping people safe”. In fact no one I was with could understand what was said, but it was actually this:

I don’t know who the sports guy is cos I don’t know any sports… but I loved this anyhow.
Also check the TikTok username

And that’s before you even get to China’s incredibly effective industrial strategy, and its somewhat effective outbound investment strategy. And that other big EM countries have been tired of the global financial system for a long time now. Etc.

Stating the obvious, but: Between the US destroying so many domestic & foreign institutions and the extremely visible moral failure on Gaza, the west is really not looking good.

Had fun talking with @emmavigeland.bsky.social about neoliberalism failing to deliver, BRICS, why Trumpistan is giving up on industries of the future, & the AI blackouts to come www.phenomenalworld.org/series/the-p...
Subscribe to @katemac.bsky.social & my Polycrisis
www.youtube.com/live/MuBPpNn...

MR FUN | 7/31/25 YouTube video by The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder

Ta da! @70sbachchan.bsky.social was on @majorityreport.bsky.social talking about neoliberalism, and why the US is giving up on the industries of the future @thepolycrisis.bsky.social www.youtube.com/live/MuBPpNn...

Separated Bike Lanes Means Safer Streets, Study Says — Streetsblog USA Cities that build protected lanes for cyclists end up with safer roads for people on bikes and people in cars and on foot, a new study of 12 large metropolises revealed Wednesday.

Never forget, a 13-year study found that protected bike-lanes led to a drastic decline in fatalities for all road users.

ALL ROAD USERS.

And painted bike-lanes? No safety improvement at all.

For sharrows, it’s actually safer to NOT have them.

Via @usa.streetsblog.org @nyc.streetsblog.org

Rip Van Winkle, but he wakes up after like 30, 40 years and sees all the quotidian little impacts of climate change that we're all normalizing and not attending to anymore: bleached & dead coral reefs, Alps with no glaciers, extreme wildfires, extended droughts, insane flooding, etc.

Had a few ideas for A/NZ, but they're all downbeat! It's wet & rainy here...

does anyone know of a coordinated response? this would take any single person months of work to go through and point out all of the errors, but I think we could have a pretty comprehensive response much sooner if we split up the work.

do you like making more money and not sharing it with nazis? i've got good news for you!

“Even if Europe did want to increase its imports, I don’t know the mechanism by which the EU goes to these companies and tells them to buy more US energy,” said Matt Smith at energy consultancy Kpler

Donald Trump’s EU oil and gas deal is ‘pie in the sky’, energy experts warn Analysts dismiss plan but executives welcome sign of more support for fossil fuel exports

"Shares in US energy companies rose on Monday on news of the EU deal, which could buoy liquefied natural gas and oil exporters ... But the rally faded as the reality of the Trump plan, which was light on details other than the top-line number, sank in."

Yep,EU will buy a whole lot less US LNG than $750 billion worth of it in 3 years.
@katemac.bsky.social & other energy experts are very sceptical that either EU demand or US supply will scale.
Less Hydrocarbon dollar lock-in than ppl fear @picharbonnier.bsky.social
www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Long term: sure, US will suffer consequences of renouncing its hegemony so chaotically.
Short term: depends on substitutability and the extent to which exporters to US decide to eat/distribute price hikes. Seems very granular & unclear; but not nothing.

Brauner saw kids who even if they live, will have "permanent neurologic dysfunction+neuropathies... their ability to learn & to be really high-functioning members of society have already been negatively affected and these are very large #s of children"

Adults, meanwhile had 1% body fat on average..

A really bad Western American reactionary futurism on display in Detroit.

"the images they spoke under more accurately suggest superposition rather than replacement: We’ll have food delivery drones, but women will still be in diners; we’ll have sleek warfighter robots, but men will still be in the trenches, too."
advaitcore.substack.com/p/a-really-b...

Europe Enters Its Metal Era | Kate Mackenzie & Tim Sahay What kind of Europe survives a fractured transatlantic military alliance?

5/ "We cannot leave security of Europe in the hands of Wisconsin voters every 4 years. Let's get out of collective denial: Europeans must take control of their destiny"-France's Minister for Europe

Europe Enters its Metal Era, we argued @katemac.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/eur...

Most of the internet used to be like this. This is actually the default, it took companies enclosing the internet and adding weird, soul-killing incentives to make people behave the way they do now. In a way, there is truly nothing special about Wikipedia except that it survived longer.

Ack. Memories…

Amjad Iraqi | Walking Corpses Israel’s allies are still buying time for Israel to change course or come to a deal with Hamas over how many trucks to...

"‘People in Gaza are neither dead nor alive,’ an UNRWA worker told the head of the agency, Philippe Lazzarini, yesterday, ‘they are walking corpses.’ It should never have come to this. Thousands of trucks carrying food, fuel and medicine are waiting to enter Gaza..."

www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ju...

Let the food trucks in!

This is such galling distressing disgusting situation. A complete failure of Western governments and people who have supported this mass starvation and ethnic cleansing.

“They came to us with the idea of a Japan-US partnership, where they are going to provide equity, credit guarantees and funding for major projects in the US,” Bessent said. He added that the foreign direct investment pledge is “all new capital.”

The two countries’ leaders seem at times to be talking at cross purposes. The White House said over $550 billion will be invested under the direction of the US, and Trump said on social media that 90% of the profits will be given to America. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, on the other hand, said Japan would offer a mixture of investment, loans, and loan guarantees up to a maximum of $550 billion.

So, the $550bn fund the US agreed with Japan is... a JET-P

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YouTube video by Channel 4 News Gaza starvation so severe people are ‘walking corpses’, UN says

"Said has cerebral palsy and he's gone for three days, surviving only on water."

I don't know what to say about Gaza anymore. Israel and the U.S. are literally starving children. It's an evil legacy that both countries will carry with us always.

In search of programs, strategies, and coalitions for a new world order
NEW: @phenomenalworld.bsky.social @katemac.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bey...