Dennis Prangle

I wonder when the agents can start fighting the language wars on our behalf

Prequential posteriors Data assimilation is a fundamental task in updating forecasting models upon observing new data, with applications ranging from weather prediction to online reinforcement learning. Deep generative...

The next OWABI seminar will be given by Shreya Sinha Roy (Warwick), who will talk about "Prequential posteriors" on Thursday the 26th February at 11am UK time.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.1...
www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi
MS Teams link: teams.microsoft.com/...

Minimum Distance Summaries for Robust Neural Posterior Estimation Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistic...

New preprint 📢 arxiv.org/abs/2602.09161 Lead by Sherman Khoo (PhD student at Compass CDT), with Song Liu and Mark Beaumont. We adjust SBI summaries at test time to improve robustness.

Tomorrow's OWABI seminar by Louis Sharrock (UCL), who will talk about "Sequential Neural Score Estimation: Likelihood-free inference with conditional score base diffusion models" (29th Jan, 11am UK time). Join: teams.microsoft.com/...
Meeting ID: 388 990 396 214 49
Passcode: f3Dh22XL

In some ways it's too good - turning on the glm module by default broke some of my examples of bad mixing

On further investigation, I could have switched my teaching to this package 10 years ago. Better later than never I guess!

Updating my lecture notes to use jagsUI (kenkellner.com/jagsUI/) in place of rjags, and it's a great fix for lots of minor teaching pain points #rstats

The Zen of Reviewer 2

A Comparison of Kernels for ABC-SMC A popular method for likelihood-free inference is approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithms. These approximate the posterior using a population of particles, which a...

New paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.06351. We compare different MCMC kernels for ABC-SMC, and recommend a one- hit kernel with mixture proposal. (Repost with corrected link!)

Oops 😬 I'll repost!

Multilevel neural simulation-based inference Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) is a popular set of methods for Bayesian inference when models are only available in the form of a simulator. These methods are widely used in the sciences...

The 1st OWABI talk of the Season will be given by François-Xavier Briol (University College London). who will talk about "Multilevel neural simulation-based inference".

Some fun news: We're hiring!

Lectureship (analogous to Assistant Prof.) in Statistical Science and AI, in the School of Mathematics, University of Bristol.

Closing date 13 October 2025; link below!

www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de...

Join us online for a discussion on
“Statistical exploration of the Manifold Hypothesis” and an opportunity to explore the intersection of geometry, statistics and machine learning.

📅 Wed 08 Oct | 🕓 4–6pm UK
🔗 Register + download the paper: rss.org.uk/training-eve...

Yes, that's right! Great conference so far.

Young girl watching academic conference presentation attentively

Feels like conference attendees are getting younger

Conference travel, morning to evening

📣 Please share: We invite submissions to the 29th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (#AISTATS 2026) and welcome paper submissions at the intersection of AI, machine learning, statistics, and related areas. [1/3]

New preprint: SBI with foundation models!
Tired of training or tuning your inference network, or waiting for your simulations to finish? Our method NPE-PF can help: It provides training-free simulation-based inference, achieving competitive performance with orders of magnitude fewer simulations! ⚡️

Paper on normalizing flow transformations for heavy tails 🦕 arxiv.org/abs/2406.16971 My co-author Tennessee Hickling will be presenting the poster at ICML icml.cc/virtual/2025...

Join our Cloud HD Video Meeting Zoom is the leader in modern enterprise cloud communications.

The next OWABI Seminar will take place during BayesComp 2025 in Singapore, on Thursday 19 June at 8pm Singapore time (1pm in Tórshavn). Speakers are: Filippo Pagani and Maurizio Filippone. Link to join: monash.zoom.us/j/810...
Meeting ID: 810 5099 4376
Passcode: 137607

The next OWABI seminar is quickly approaching, with two talks live from BioInference 2025 (bioinference.github....) on 29th May,10am UK time. Speakers: Andrew Golightly, Henrik Häggström. Links to the mailing list, to receive the Teams link to the talks, can be found on warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...

I come back to this every few years and always get more out of it!

Election leaflet "West of England Mayor Election: It's Green or the Reform Party" with a bar chart showing Green 24%, Reform 20%, Labour 20%

When your analysis uses a very strong prior

ISBA 2026: Call for Invited Sessions & Panel Discussions The Scientific Committee invites the submission of proposals for Invited Sessions & Panel Discussions for the 2026 ISBA World Meeting, to be held in Nagoya, Japan from 28 June to 3 July, 2026. Invited...

The Scientific Committee welcomes proposals for Invited Sessions for the 2026 #ISBA World Meeting. Please submit proposals using this form: forms.gle/5G3xJWJaaE6Q...

Proposals will be accepted until 11:59pm (anywhere on Earth) on 6 July 2025.

Also see the conf. site: isba2026.github.io

Scientists on Bluesky, here's one of the best feeds I've found here:

Paper Skygest - a feed of posts containing research papers shared by people you follow.

The next OWABI seminar www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi is quickly approaching, being scheduled on Thursday the 27th March at 11am UK time. Our next speaker is Meïli Baragatti (Université de Montpellier), who will talk about "Approximate Bayesian Computation with Deep Learning and Conformal Prediction".

I will be one of the supervisors on this. Please pass on to any UK students who may be interested.

JOB OPENING at University of Bristol:
-- Lecturer in Statistics or Machine Learning
-- (x 2 positions available)
-- application deadline: 31 March, 2025

Details at www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de...

Come join us!

Our next OWABI talk will be given by Meïli Baragatti (Assistant Professor Institut Agro Montpellier) on Approximate Bayesian Computation with Deep Learning and Conformal prediction on Thursday the 27th March 2025. More info will follow.

I think there's an OnlyPosts feed you can use that excludes reposts. I also like the QuietPosters feed to highlight stuff that would get drowned out otherwise.