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338Canada.ca | Philippe J. Fournier | Substack

@threethirtyeight.substack.com.web.brid.gy

Canadian politics by the numbers. 🍁 Subscribe to 338Canada for in-depth analysis of polling data, electoral maps, and Canada's […] [bridged from https://threethirtyeight.substack.com/ on the web: https://fed.brid.gy/web/threethirtyeight.substack.com ]

23 Followers  |  0 Following  |  453 Posts  |  Joined: 24.04.2025  |  1.2394

Latest posts by threethirtyeight.substack.com.web.brid.gy on Bluesky

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Quebec Is a Lot More Canadian Than Sovereigntists Want to Admit Polls show a growing affection for the country, even as the Parti Québécois leads the province.
30.10.2025 11:44 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Who should and shouldn't want an election? Yes, a *federal* election. That's right: another one.
28.10.2025 21:11 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Nanos Research: Parties are tied, Leaders are not While the Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck in support, Carney still leads Poilievre by more than 20 points as preferred PM.
28.10.2025 16:45 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: Troubled Waters Ahead for Mark Carney As trade tensions with United States rise, the Prime Minister will soon face his first true test of voter patience at home.
26.10.2025 18:44 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Pallas Data: PQ in the lead, CAQ still trailing The Parti Québécois remains in first place despite a five-point slide since September, while Legault's CAQ and the Conservatives are vying for third place.
22.10.2025 13:30 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Pallas Data : le PQ en tête, la CAQ toujours à la traîne Le Parti québécois conserve son avance à l’échelle nationale, malgré un recul de cinq points depuis septembre. Derrière, la CAQ et le PCQ se disputent la troisième place.
22.10.2025 12:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Is Pierre Poilievre's Leadership in Trouble? Plus: fresh numbers out of Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and more.
21.10.2025 21:15 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Canadians Skeptical Any Leader Can Reason With Trump New polling from Abacus Data finds two-thirds say Mark Carney handled his meeting with Trump well, but few believe a change in government would improve relations with the U.S.
20.10.2025 15:27 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: Stalemate in the Polls, Budget Drama on the Hill? As Liberals and Conservatives remain in a statistical tie, Ottawa braces for a high-stakes budget vote that could decide this Parliament’s fate.
19.10.2025 16:33 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Canadians Still Sour on the U.S., China, and India New polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows favourability remains high for democratic allies in Asia and Oceania, but major powers face deep skepticism on trade and diplomacy.
15.10.2025 15:50 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Carney's Delicate Balancing Act with Trump And election day in Newfoundland and Labrador!
14.10.2025 19:40 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: Palestine, Pipelines, Cracks in U.S. Democracy — and Carney Still Ahead From Nanos and Léger’s tightening federal race to shifting public opinion on foreign affairs and energy, here’s what Canadians told pollsters last week.
12.10.2025 18:29 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Léger: Liberal Vote Holds, Carney Approval Slides Liberal support remains steady in latest Léger survey, but government approval has fallen sharply since August.
09.10.2025 18:17 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Could a polarized electorate be the new normal? Is Forty the new thirty?
07.10.2025 20:36 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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B.C. Conservatives Lose Ground as NDP Holds Steady New B.C. polling from Research Co. finds Premier David Eby maintaining strong approval and the Greens inching upward, while John Rustad’s Conservatives remain mired in internal turmoil.
07.10.2025 02:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: As Carney Heads South, Polls Tighten at Home Fresh federal data point to a narrowing gap, Legault struggles in Quebec, and Alberta’s municipal contests heat up.
05.10.2025 16:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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What Are the Odds Legault Can Turn the Tide? There’s no better way to assess François Legault’s chances of pulling off a surprise victory in next year's Quebec election than by traveling back in time to look at the polls.
03.10.2025 00:57 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Are Carney and Poilievre a boost or a drag on their parties? Let's nerd out on the latest federal, provincial and municipal polls.
01.10.2025 10:49 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: Federal Race Narrows Again Federal gap shrinks, but Carney still leads Poilievre on favourability, while municipal and provincial polls stir the waters in Alberta, Calgary, and Montreal.
28.09.2025 15:04 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Léger: Extreme Weather Fuels Canadians’ Climate Concerns More than a third of Canadians say they were personally affected in the past year, helping explain recent rise in climate concern.
25.09.2025 15:53 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: What's the leadership review magic number? 68% was enough for Marit Stiles, so was 70% for John Rustad... What's the number for Pierre Poilievre?
23.09.2025 21:02 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: Canadians Losing Faith in U.S. Partnership Liberals maintain an overall advantage, but eroding satisfaction in Quebec and strained U.S. relations cast a shadow on the horizon.
21.09.2025 14:21 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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With Leadership Review Looming, How Safe is Poilievre? A large-sample Angus Reid poll finds the Conservative leader underwater across nearly every demographic — though the party's base remains firmly behind him.
17.09.2025 15:52 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Who will prop up Carney's Liberals? Somebody will have to... or we might end up in a campaign again.
16.09.2025 19:12 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Economy, Housing Top Concerns — and Carney Has the Edge for Now New poll from Research Co. finds economy and housing at the forefront, with Carney leading Poilievre on nearly every major issue.
16.09.2025 11:37 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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338 Sunday Update: From Honeymoon to Hard Reality Parliament returns this week as Carney’s post-election glow fades and Poilievre struggles to grow beyond the CPC base. We break down the numbers.
14.09.2025 13:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Canadians Cooling on the U.S., Softening on China New polling shows a sharp rise in support for closer economic ties with China as frustration with U.S. trade tensions grows.
12.09.2025 09:31 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Léger Sees Stable Race, Liberals in Front National LPC lead sits at nine points, but Western subsamples look unusually strong for the Liberals.
10.09.2025 19:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Numbers: Are we buying or selling on Carney and Poilievre? Plus, François Legault hit rock bottom, then the bottom fell out again.
09.09.2025 20:59 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Legault’s Historic Slide Continues What seemed like rock bottom last spring wasn’t: Legault’s CAQ keeps falling, according to a new Quebec poll from Pallas Data.
09.09.2025 13:12 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0