SmartVoting.ca

It’s a theoretical number, if an election was held today.

Our federal model has fired back up and started to turn out data from ridings across Canada. While we are not in election mode these numbers (and riding predictions) will update on Sundays.

FEDERAL PROJECTIONS - June 15, 2025

LPC: 174
CPC: 140
BQ: 22
NDP: 6
GPC: 1

#politics #polling #canada #poll #cdnpoli #smartvoting

While we continue to parse the election data we can report our preliminary accuracy.

94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.

70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.

More data to come at SmartVoting.ca

#cdnpoli

SmartVoting.ca Final Federal Seat Projections. Decisive Liberal Majority. CPC Opposition. NDP loses party status.

FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

Running final numbers now

In our penultimate update for the 2025 Federal Election. Liberal climb back up to above 190 seats.

Final update tomorrow morning.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (218)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 9 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 27, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

Hey Brad! Can you tell carney about us. Would love to chat with him about what we’re doing.

VoteWell pulls 388 data and doesn’t do their own projection modelling as well as having a ground game. This all costs money.

Seat counts tighten among progressive parties as we enter the final weekend.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 188 (217)
CPC: 119 (85)
BQ: 25 (26)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 26, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

This election is like no other. In this short time we have had our site hit a screen 35 million times. This is an unbelievable number to us and we couldn’t have done it with our support.

#smartvoting #election2025 #canada

We get a lot of feedback that “We don’t use/have riding polls.” While technically true, aggregates use pretty cool techniques to get these predictions.

It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻

Tell that to the voters. The data just isn’t there for them to win. Sorry. We may be wrong there is definitely a chance. If we are the model with adjust to compensate for that.

We have a methodology you can read. It makes it very clear how it works.

Nope. We are a bipartisan team. We’re sorry that data and stats is difficult for some (NDP partisans) to accept and deal with. Sad really.

Because the NDP are unpopular. Thanks

The juggling of seats continue between the majors but the LPC still holding onto a 185+ seat count going into the final weekend.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (215)
CPC: 119 (86)
BQ: 24 (27)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 25, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

Favourable polls from Léger (A+) and Nanos (A) for the Liberal regain the seats lost from the Mainstreet (A-) polls that went CPC.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 195 (220)
CPC: 115 (84)
BQ: 22 (24)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 23, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

lol no

CPC takes two from the LPC in our latest update. But the Conservative vote continues to weaken nationwide meaning more is up for grabs.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 189 (218)
CPC: 122 (86)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 22, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

We continue to see tight races between the LPC, BQ and NDP resulting in a flip-flop of numbers. CPC number is still firm at 120.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 191 (213)
CPC: 120 (91)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 21, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

The two polls from Mainstreet that favour the CPC didn't really hurt the aggregate. Liberals up 2 since yesterday.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 194 (216)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 20, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

Are the Liberals dropping in the polls? Yes, slightly
Is that benefiting the CPC? No.

Polls always squeeze but the LPC is firmly ahead.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (214)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 8 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 19, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

Sounds like your disputing the data. That’s exactly what you’re doing.

This is a simple logic and seems NDP partisans can’t process that logic, unfortunately. Let’s not ignore also that this has been a targeted campaign to discredit our work. You’re fitting that mold.

The riding data is in the model. I don’t understand why this hard for you to understand.

A visible vote split is starting to unfold across the country. The Bloc and the NDP have picked away at some Liberal leads in the country.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 197 (220)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 18 (19)
NDP: 9 (14)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 16, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada

When making visual graphics we have to dance between how much we show. On the polling documentation we have the riding data. This is an aggregate, like we do

See that number beside the Liberal percentage? That's called Swing. How much that party has grown since the start of the election. The swing is higher then the others in a statistical tie. Hence the prediction.

Data doesn't lie

As older polls that favour the CPC and NDP start to age out. It's becoming clear that the Liberals are extremely favoured. That being said, anything can happen.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 206 (227)
CPC: 113 (85)
BQ: 16 (17)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli

⚠️ RIDING POLLS ALERT ⚠️

We got some polls from Saskatchewan down to the riding level from a A rated pollster. The story here is telling for the state of this election. The fact that the Liberals are threatening Saskatoon is just insane.

#canada #polling #data #election

We do not allow human intervention in our model. Full stop. The model decides based on who has the best chance to win.